Win streaks, pivotal games and extinguished dreams: Who will make finals in the race for the top eight?

6 hours ago 4

The run home to the AFL finals in 2025 remains must-watch viewing, with positions one through to eight there for the taking with four home-and-away rounds remaining (five for Gold Coast).

Adelaide have emerged as the league’s hottest team, and could well be considered flag favourites. Collingwood, after a recent stumble, remain firmly in the hunt for a top-two finish, even the minor premiership, but have personnel issues to address.

Jordan De Goey returned via the VFL on Saturday night, and could be a finals wildcard.

Geelong and the Brisbane Lions also have one hand on the double chance.

Positions five through to eight are also fluid, the big question being whether the Western Bulldogs can slay a fellow finals contender to edge into the top eight.

So, where will your team finish? We analyse the run home for each of the contenders, and deliver our predicted top eight which, in a season of uncertainty, will undoubtedly spark debate.

Collingwood

What we say: The Magpies, fresh off a victory over Richmond, hope to reestablish momentum after back-to-back defeats. Now comes a potentially season-defining three weeks, with fellow premiership aspirants on the agenda. We’re backing them to win two of those three games, but we’re a touch nervous. Bobby Hill and Jordan De Goey will be big ins. Best case: First. Worst case: Fourth.

Izak Rankine has been instrumental in the Crows’ rise.

Adelaide

What we say: There is a fair argument to say the Crows are now premiership favourites, despite the Magpies clinging to top spot. And we can’t wait for the round 23 clash between these two clubs, which could determine top spot. A top-two finish is there for the taking, the Crows having won five straight, and eight of their past nine. That’s some streak, but the Hawks will be a major test on Friday. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.

Chris Fagan needs his team to rebound quickly after a heavy defeat to Gold Coast.

Brisbane Lions

What we say: Chris Fagan was left to lament one of the more surprising heavy defeats in his time in charge on Saturday, and it suddenly has left the Lions vulnerable in terms of a top-four finish. Road games against the Magpies and Dockers will be pivotal in their bid for the double chance. We’re still backing them in, but the squeeze is on. Best case: First. Worst case: Sixth.

Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron are pivotal in the Cats’ premiership quest.

Geelong

What we say: As we said last week, the Cats have the softest run home, and that began with the demolition of North Melbourne on Saturday night. Things were so good Patrick Dangerfield was subbed out and had time to tuck into a kebab on the bench. The Swans remain their only real danger in the final month. Should the Magpies, Crows or Lions falter, the Cats will finish top two. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.

Jack Ginnivan and the Hawks have a tough run home.

Hawthorn

What we say: The Hawks, as expected, got the job done against the Blues, largely through a dominant first term. Now comes the serious work, beginning in Adelaide. If they win only one of three games against the Crows, Magpies and Lions, we have them missing the top eight. But if they can jag at least two wins and take care of the Demons, September beckons. It’s a fascinating run home. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.

GWS skipper Toby Greene will miss the pivotal clash against the Western Bulldogs.

GWS

What we say: The Giants should be pumped having won five straight, but their top-two plans taken a hit with Toby Greene (one-match ban), and Josh Kelly (calf) and Jack Buckley (calf) ruled out for the remainder of the home-and-away campaign. However, a top-four spot is certainly there for the taking. Much will depend on this weekend’s clash against the Western Bulldogs, which had shaped as one of the games of the year until suspension and injuries hit. The round 23 clash against the Suns is also pivotal. Best case: First Worst case: Seventh

Andrew Brayshaw is willing the Dockers towards September.

Fremantle

What we say: The Dockers are hot, having won nine of their past 10 games. They should take care of business against the Blues and Power, then comes the major challenges of the Lions and Bulldogs. They will need to win at least three of their final four to finish top four. No reason why not, although we are still stung by last year’s late-season fumble. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.

Noah Anderson has been brilliant in leading the Suns, and could well be named as the All-Australian captain.

Gold Coast

What we say: Led by the brilliant Noah Anderson, wins over the Magpies and Lions in the past three weeks could be season defining. They will take care of the Tigers this week, and should win three of their final four games to rubber-stamp a maiden finals run. Remember, they have an extra game up their sleeve. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.

Western Bulldogs

What we say: The Bulldogs took care of business against the Bombers, and so they should have. Now comes a major test against a premiership fancy on a five-game winning streak. And with a woeful 1-8 win-loss record against teams in the top eight, it’s time for the Bulldogs to lift. “The Bont” needs to find a way for his team to get the job done. Win, and they have every chance to reach September. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth

Jon Pierik’s prediction

This prediction was made before round 20.

Sydney

What we say: As we said last week, the Swans left their run so late, they had to win all of their remaining five games to make the finals. That was still a possibility when they led by 35 points late in the second term against the Giants on Friday night, but the dream was extinguished come full-time thanks to a humbling 44-point loss. It’s time for the Swans to think about 2026, when they will be in good shape to rebound. Best case: Ninth. Worst case: Ninth or lower.

Port Adelaide

What we say: This is the last week the Power will be on this list. Like the Swans, they had to win their remaining five games, and hope a series of results fell their way. But a thumping loss to the Crows has ended any hope of a finals’ miracle. It’s lights out, the full focus now on 2026 under new coach Josh Carr. Best case: 10th. Worst case: 13th.

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