The biggest lesson the Saints can learn in their TDK chase

7 hours ago 5

Brodie Grundy is back to playing the best footy of his career. It has taken him five years, three clubs and six different coaches, but Grundy now looks like the Grundy of 2021.

On Sunday, the Swans play St Kilda and Grundy offers a salutary lesson for the Saints.

Grundy was the Collingwood ruck on a big-money, long-term deal whom Melbourne picked up – with a little discount on the money and the trade terms – with a plan to pair him with Max Gawn. It was a flawed plan, and Grundy paid the price. Both Gawn and Grundy were good first rucks and poor forwards, so the time-share arrangement was never going to work.

Brodie Grundy and Tom De Koning going head-to-head.

Grundy’s best footy was under Nathan Buckley in 2021, but afterwards, especially under Craig McRae, Collingwood evolved what they wanted from their ruck. They wanted their big man to play like Darcy Cameron does now and drop behind the play to take intercept marks and help the defence. Being able to push forward to mark and goal has been a bonus from Cameron.

The fact Grundy was on a big long-term contract meant that, when they were under salary cap pressure, he was a logical part to swap out. So after Buckley left, Robert Harvey briefly coached him, and then Craig McRae, before Grundy went to Melbourne and Simon Goodwin was his fourth coach in short order.

At Melbourne it was quickly apparent the idea of Grundy-Gawn was better than the reality, and he moved again.

Tom De Koning flies for a mark against Zac Bailey and the Brisbane Lions.

The trade to Sydney and John Longmire was a shaky start, but this year under Dean Cox – a former star ruckman himself – Grundy is back to playing his best footy because he is in a team that wants him to play the game on his terms and play to his running strengths. He is not trying to compromise his game for another player, nor his style for another game plan.

Grundy has finally found a situation that works, but it has taken two moves, multiple coaches and a few years of pain.

Which now brings us to Tom De Koning.

St Kilda await the arrival of De Koning from Carlton on a contract offer that will be, at the very least, $1.7 million per year over seven years. As a restricted free agent Carlton have the right to look at the contract offer but do not have the salary cap space or remote intention of going near matching it.

The Saints are apparently willing to overlook De Koning’s form this year in persisting with the offer. Currently, De Koning is not even Carlton’s first-choice ruck and has been so anonymous as a forward his own fans gave him Bronx cheers on Thursday night. Not that this should be a measure of performance, but three marks and one last-quarter goal when the game was dead did not suggest the sort of presence they were looking for to complement Charlie Curnow. Last week he was similarly unnoticed, other than by the Collingwood cheer squad who enjoyed singing When the Saints Go Marching In to him when he was in the goal square.

St Kilda are plainly aware that they may have unintentionally played a role in De Koning’s form drop, as the player appears to labour under the pressure of his next career choice.

For the Saints, the question remains the same as when they began their pursuit of him: how is it going to work if and when we do get him? We have seen what happened with Gawn and Grundy – are we going to get that?

One hope would be that “TDK” arriving will give them back the sort of chemistry they had when Paddy Ryder was in tandem with Rowan Marshall.

But Ryder was a better forward than either TDK or Marshall and at a different career stage.

Marshall will almost certainly want to leave. And he should. He is contracted for next year, but St Kilda should be open to the move, and when it comes to his next destination, Geelong are an obvious option.

Were he to leave, there would be a logic to it for the Saints – you bring in a younger ruck as a free agent so, aside from De Koning’s mega contract, you are not giving up a draft pick. You trade Marshall out, and so you bring in a draft pick from that trade. Ideally, you would bring in a future draft pick and not one in this weak draft, diluted by the volume of academy and father-son selections.

It is unknown if this is the grand plan, or if the Saints intend to make it work with Marshall and De Koning in the one team, but there is more logic in trading Marshall out and getting the draft pick in and reducing the amount of the salary cap that is tied up in ruckmen.

The contract offer for De Koning is massively over the odds. Removing Marshall’s contract would obviously reduce the amount St Kilda would have committed to two players in what most clubs say is the one area of the ground you do not overpay in.

Four list managers from other clubs, who declined to comment on the record, valued De Koning at no more than $1m a year. One figured him to be an $800,000-per-year player, another at $900,000 to $1m, while the other two thought him a $1m-a-year man.

The difference between St Kilda and most clubs in this market is the Saints struggle to land players and so have to pay overs to do so.

Most figure that is the top price you would go to for a ruck who is not Gawn nor Luke Jackson.

“To pay that, they have to be unbelievable – [with] hitouts to advantage, [and] contested marks, or you have to have the ability to get back in defence and push forward to kick goals, like a Luke Jackson,” one list manager said.

“De Koning is neither of those things – he is not dominating as a ruck or as a forward.

Grundy (pictured here with Isaac Heeney) is playing a key role for the Swans.

“It looks like, at the moment, mentally, it [the big contract offer and probable move] has got to him, and he is playing well below his ability, so don’t judge him now on his form.”

The difference between St Kilda and most clubs in this market is the Saints struggle to land players and so have to pay overs to do so.

“They have to get the ball rolling, and getting in a player like De Koning helps reframe them. They also have front-ended other contracts and currently their salary cap for next year has a huge amount of space,” the list manager explained.

A club source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Saints would be on par with Richmond for cap space.

De Koning is not as bad as he was against the Lions on Thursday night or against Collingwood last week because he is being played out of position. But what is his worth?

The player on the other side of the centre circle on Sunday offers the lesson.

Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter.