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If the Wallabies kick off against the All Blacks at Eden Park, it would not be a surprise if they take a leaf out of the Springboks’ playbook.
In Wellington two weeks ago, South Africa went high and straight down the middle from the kick-off, inviting their fullback Aphelele Fassi to try and regain possession, which he promptly did.
It was a statement of intent from the Springboks, and the Wallabies look set up to play with the same level of ambition.
Some of coach Joe Schmidt’s selections were borne out of necessity, with Andrew Kellaway suffering a calf injury and Jake Gordon presumably not quite at his sharpest after a hamstring injury, but the net effect is a Wallabies team that is packed with both risk and reward.
No one captures this better than rugged second-rower Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, a surprise selection given Schmidt’s previous preference for Jeremy Williams and the Force player’s appeal as a safer pair of hands. Williams is a guaranteed six or seven out of 10 performer, while Salakaia-Loto could range anywhere between three and 10.
But the boldness of the Wallabies’ selections is, on balance, the right way to go. They cannot go to Eden Park and squeeze out a win. That was the approach the Springboks took, and they ultimately paid the price for that timidity. In the end, they were let down by a few veterans who were supposed to give them security.
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto will be a key man for the Wallabies.Credit: Getty
If the Wallabies go down, and they might, they will at least do so swinging. It is that trait that has endeared them to the Australian public and well-wishers from abroad.
As they chase a famous win, they will target All Blacks No.13 Billy Proctor.
Even though the Reds lost 31-27 to the Hurricanes in Brisbane in May, they found a chink in Proctor’s defensive armour that was a preview of his Test year to date.
At Suncorp Stadium, the Reds manipulated him into a defensive misread that led to a try, and the French did likewise when they burnt him on the outside from a scrum move in the All Blacks’ first Test of the season in Dunedin.
Max Jorgensen will be hoping his speed proves too much for the All Blacks.Credit: Getty Images
Proctor missed three of his 15 tackle attempts against the Springboks in Wellington, and the expectation had been that Anton Lienert-Brown or Leicester Fainga’anuku would replace him.
Proctor was largely superb in Super Rugby Pacific, but the transition into the Test arena is difficult, and the Wallabies will have noticed as much.
It was rapid France fullback Theo Attissogbe, normally a winger, who got on Proctor’s outside during that first Test in July. The Wallabies will be trying to manufacture a similar opportunity for Max Jorgensen.
They will almost certainly seek to apply the same level of heat to the All Blacks’ lineout. The All Blacks’ second-rowers and No.6 are relatively young and/or inexperienced – Wallabies lineout coach Tom Donnelly actually coached Fabian Holland at both Otago and the Highlanders – and if the Wallabies put pressure on these three key jumpers, the All Blacks don’t have many other options to fall back on.
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No.8 Wallace Sititi and No.7 Ardie Savea are not lineout specialists, and neither is replacement flanker Peter Lakai. Wallabies giant Nick Frost, therefore, looms as one of the most important players on the paddock. His ability to spoil opposition ball, which was so vital in the win against the Springboks at Ellis Park, has the potential to swing the momentum of the Test.
The danger for the Wallabies barely needs to be spelled out. After the loss to the Springboks, the All Blacks will come out firing, and fit-again halfback Cameron Roigard has the capacity to break open any defence.
The horror to be avoided for the Wallabies is a slow start in which the All Blacks are allowed to find their rhythm and confidence. They were guilty of it twice against Argentina, once against the Springboks, and once against the British and Irish Lions.
It has become a recurring theme this year, and perhaps the Salakaia-Loto selection is the response, a logical selection as the Wallabies try to own more of the early collisions.
My prediction, informed largely by history, is a Wallabies loss, but it also has the makings of a classic in which all bets are off if the Wallabies navigate the early storm.
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