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When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio handed President Donald Trump a message during a public event in the White House’s East Room, it was one of those moments in which history heaved: the note may be the beginning of the longed-for end to the two-year war in Gaza.
The handwritten message suggested a peace deal was close between Hamas and Israel, and Trump, who helped broker the new accord, quickly announced both sides had agreed to the first phase of his 20-point plan, including that Israel would pull back its troops to an agreed-upon line, and that Hamas would release hostages.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confers with Donald Trump at the White House.Credit: AP
Hamas and other militants killed 1200 people and took 250 captives back to Gaza. About 20 survive and will reportedly start being released at the weekend. The remains of up to 28 other hostages will be returned in stages.
Israeli military raids have killed reportedly more than 60,000 people – roughly 3 per cent of them the people of Gaza – since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, surprise attack. For its part, Israel is expected to release nearly 2000 Palestinian prisoners.
If the hostages are released and the entry of adequate aid into Gaza cleared, these are massive first steps towards resolving the ongoing Middle East tragedy. While many crucial details remain unanswered, the sides appear to be closer to ending the war than they have been in several months, but we sound a note of caution on what comes next.
For instance, we do not know the details of how Hamas will disarm. And what will Israel do if there is a breach of the terms? Let alone the worrying concern that the timing of the postwar administration for the Gaza Strip remains a mystery.
We do know, however, that Trump’s plan calls for an international body led by himself and including former British prime minister Tony Blair to play a role in the devastated area’s post-war administration, but there is no clear indication about who will rule Gaza if and when the war ends.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump, Western and Arab states have ruled out a role for Hamas, but we also know Hamas rejects Blair or any foreign rule of Gaza and would only relinquish Gaza’s governance to a Palestinian technocrat government supervised by the Palestinian Authority and backed by Arab and Muslim countries.
Undoubtedly numerous big questions remain to be solved, but this is a huge and welcome beginning and Trump deserves full credit.
His achievement makes his own clownish and disrespectful self-promotion as an unlikely candidate for a Nobel Peace Prize less fanciful. That said, experience shows there have been many false dawns with both the Middle East war and Trump over the years.
The world can live without a Nobel Prize for the US president. The Gaza peace deal has much greater significance: it is the first move towards rescuing Palestinians from their understandable sense of abandonment and restoring Israel’s former international standing. It could also be a historic and memorable moment when the world united.
Bevan Shields sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive his Note from the Editor.
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