Punters fire up for War Machine to topple Everest favourite

2 days ago 1

By Craig Kerry

October 17, 2025 — 7.30pm

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan was on “team Tempted”, but said War Machine had been best backed to upset Everest favourite Ka Ying Rising in Saturday’s $20 million.

Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising was out to $1.80 Fixed Odds on Friday with TAB for the $20 million Everest, with Joliestar ($6.50), War Machine ($9.50) and Jimmysstar ($10) next in the market.

Ryan said Ka Ying Rising had been all the rage with punters for almost a year, attracting 60 per cent of all Everest bets and creating a liability for the TAB of more than $1 million before his third-placed barrier trial at Randwick on October 7 changed trends. That liability was back under seven figures on Friday. From the trial to Tuesday’s barrier draw, Ryan wrote more than $250,000 bets on other runners.

“He was the only horse I could lay for 10 or 11 months, up until the barrier trial,” Ryan said. “I think then punters saw he was beatable, in their eyes, so that gave them renewed confidence to start backing their local horses. Then we saw a bit of a rally for him on Monday after he galloped well at Canterbury.

“But, final field, he has been a bit easy, $1.60 to $1.80. He’s only about 40 per cent of the total hold, and that’s the kind of the hold you expect from a $2.50 chance, so he’s not super popular.

“I eased him $1.60 to $1.70 yesterday, and again today. And I’m just treading cautiously because he is originally a big liability for our futures book, and with the impact of the World Pool tomorrow, I’m just not sure how much that will impact us.”

He said War Machine was popular with punters since the draw, where he gained gate four. The five-year-old is trained by the Hayes brothers Ben, Will and JD, who are trying to upstage their father, David, the trainer of Ka Ying Rising.

“Best backed final field has been War Machine,” he said. “I think punters are liking the picket fence, four wins in a row, and that perfect barrier. He’s been a huge go, $21 into $9.50, so he’s our biggest liability final field. And he’s been backed to win nearly $750,000.

“Jimmysstar’s been popular the last 24 hours. He’s been $11 into $10. Joliestar was a firm on Thursday, $8 to $7. So they’re probably the three that have seen the most support.”

Tempted, aiming to become the first filly to win the Everest, was $16 – but Ryan expected the lightweight hope to firm.

“I’m very much on team Tempted,” he said. “She’s our single best way in the race at this stage. She’s a horse I like, I think that she could be a firmer tomorrow. And she’ll definitely be a good result for us. I thought it had no chance in the Golden Rose where it was in the wrong part of the track and now barrier one, Craig Williams to ride, perfect.”

‘Bit of X-factor’ Maher says filly ready to weigh in on Everest stage

Ciaron Maher believes the advantage at the scales for three-year-old fillies in weight-for-age sprints is real – if the horse has the attributes of a seasoned performer.

Australia’s leading trainer has used it successfully with the likes of Loving Gaby and Coolangatta, and he sees Tempted ready to do the same, this time in The Everest (1200m) on Saturday.

The Maher-trained Bella Nipotina last year became the first mare to win an Everest, and he will try to break new ground with a three-year-old filly on Saturday at Randwick.

Tempted cruises to victory in the group 2 Run To The Rose at Rosehill.

Godolphin’s Run To The Rose (1200m) winner will carry just 51 kilograms, 5.5kg less than the mares and 7.5kg lighter than the boys. The significance of weights in sprints is often debated, but Maher is a believer. The draw in gate one and booking of two-time Everest winning jockey Craig Williams only add to his confidence with Tempted ($17 Sportsbet).

“We’ve had really good success with Loving Gaby, Coolangatta and Growing Empire taking on the older horses at three and getting that weight drop,” Maher said.

“They’ve obviously got to have plenty of talent, but Coolangatta won multiple group 1s at weight for age and Growing Empire was third in the Everest.

“They were good three-year olds and she’s like them, she’s like an older horse. She’s quite relaxed, she can quicken from the gates, relax and she’s got a good turn of foot, so she’s got all the attributes.

Ciaron Maher with jockey Craig Williams after Bella Nipotina’s win in last year’s Everest.

“They say a filly hasn’t won it, but last year they said a mare hasn’t won it, and the race is not that old, so I don’t think that matters. Three-year-olds do have a good record in the race and I think she’s had a really nice prep for it.”

Tempted won twice at group 2 level and was a luckless third in the Golden Slipper, all at 1200m, last season. She returned with an effortless win in the Run To The Rose (1200m) then a solid third behind a record 1400m run from Beiwacht in the Golden Rose.

“I just like having that 1400m race back to 1200m, and she’s seemed to work like she did going into the Run To The Rose,” Maher said. “I think even the last two weeks she’s come on. She does that have that bit of X-factor about her.”

Maher also has Jimmysstar ($12), which flashed home for second last start in the Premiere Stakes, in the race, but he will have to contend with gate 11 of 12. He hoped jockey Ethan Brown could find a spot closer to the pace than in the Premiere.

In the $5 million King Charles III Stakes (1600m), Maher was excited about the prospects of cult front-running eight-year-old mare Pride Of Jenni, which resumed with victory in the Feehan Stakes over Treasurethe Moment.

“She’s as good as ever,” Maher said. “I think that was her quickest last furlong that she’s done. She carried a bit more weight going into it, which had me a little bit nervous. She was about 20 [kilograms] over her winning weight, but she was as good or better than ever.

“She was relaxed early and stoked it up really early in the race and was strong, just an amazing mare.

“Fangirl, I think she beats her most of the time. Mr Brightside, they’ve had a good old ding-dong battle over the years. He’s got her measure at seven [furlongs] but at a mile, I think it’s pretty even.”