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Political strategists have warned that a surge in support for One Nation similar to that seen in the South Australian election could reshape Victorian politics and scramble the result in dozens of seats, as major political parties downplay the threat.
After her party’s strong showing in South Australia at the weekend, Pauline Hanson set her sights over the border, telling backers in Victoria, “We are coming.”
While the South Australian election delivered a decisive win for Labor, the conservative side of politics went through a sharp realignment: the Liberal Party’s vote crashed by more than 16 per cent as One Nation picked up 22 per cent of the primary vote off the back of a 19 per cent swing.
Although the jump in support for One Nation didn’t dent SA Labor’s grip on government, political analysts say a similar jump in Victoria, where Labor is seeking a fourth term after 12 years and is weighed down by poor polling, could have a more destabilising impact, particularly in outer-suburban seats.
Political strategists warn that the same dynamic could play out across a swath of outer-suburban and regional seats in Victoria – including Hastings, Cranbourne, Pakenham, Werribee, Bass and Ripon – while also putting Liberal-held electorates such as Eildon, Croydon and Berwick at risk.
The Liberals need to win 16 lower house seats to form government.
Despite the warnings, Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson sought to downplay the result in South Australia and said it showed that a protest vote away from the major parties had backfired.
“I get that people right across this country, people here in Victoria, are frustrated with politicians,” she said.
“If you want to change the government in November this year, you have to put a No.1 next to the Victorian Liberals or Nationals,” she said.
Labor is framing the South Australian result as a disaster for the Liberal Party.
“What has been demonstrated in South Australia is that if Labor governments are focused on the things that matter to the communities that they serve, then the people, in turn, will put their trust in them to lead their states,” Victorian Health Minister Mary-Anne Thomas said.
While the Victorian election is still eight months away, election analyst Antony Green said the South Australian result should be a warning for the Coalition in Victoria.
“In South Australia, One Nation did nothing to help the Liberals,” Green said.
“One Nation did very well … they set up to destroy the Liberals.”
Privately, Victorian Liberals are split between those who think the result should push their policy agenda further to the right to compete with One Nation, and those who favour directly confronting Hanson while also ensuring her supporters direct their preferences to the Liberals.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity so they could discuss party matters, several Liberal MPs said they believed the surge in support for One Nation could be a positive for the Victorian Liberal Party should One Nation act as a “feeder” party that could ultimately bring the Coalition closer to government.
But other Liberal MPs warned that any attempt to sidle up to One Nation would legitimise the conservative rival that is eating into its vote.
“We need to get into a position where we disagree with them robustly, but we get our supporters and their supporters on the same page so that they realise preferencing us is better than re-electing Labor,” one MP said.
“There are people out there wanting us to offer wholesale support to One Nation. A lot of us seem to have lost the art of the argument”
Other MPs were more dismissive of the threat posed by One Nation.
“One Nation doesn’t have all the answers; at some point people will realise they are not much chop,” one Liberal said. “People still see Liberal and Labor as the parties of government.”
Tony Barry, director of bipartisan research and strategy company the Redbridge Group and a former senior Liberal Party staffer, said the central challenge for the Victorian Liberals was to stop the leak of votes to One Nation.
“The message which I see working is by saying to those One Nation-curious voters that the only way to get rid of this government is to vote Liberal. If you vote for One Nation you get four more years of Labor.” he said. “That message would get some to reconsider.”
He warned that Victoria faced a massive mood for change and the “incredible volatility” meant no side could be complacent.
Redbridge director Kos Samaras, a former deputy campaign director for Victorian Labor, said the political mood in Victoria made it a fertile ground for Hanson.
“Victoria is a much unhappier place than South Australia. That means Pauline Hanson is going to have a bloody good day,” he said. “But Labor is in a much weaker position in Victoria than in South Australia.”
He said the surge in support for One Nation could cut across both the major parties – eroding Labor in outer-suburban and regional seats while also potentially splitting the conservative vote in key Liberal-held electorates.
“Does One Nation split the Liberal vote so much that Labor wins again?” he said.
The risk extended to the upper house, where Samaras said One Nation could secure up to five seats, with Labor seats in regional areas particularly under threat.
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