LNP extends parliamentary majority with ‘emphatic’ byelection win

3 months ago 16

Premier David Crisafulli is celebrating an impressive victory in north Queensland – the first time a sitting Queensland government has gained a seat in a byelection since 1998.

At that time, the Beattie government claimed Musgrave from One Nation. On Saturday night, it was the Crisafulli government claiming Hinchinbrook from Katter’s Australian Party.

Speaking at an Ingham deli on Sunday morning with long-time friend and new LNP parliamentary colleague Wayde Chiesa at his side, Crisafulli said the result was a sign his government was on the right path.

Newly elected Hinchinbrook MP Wayde Chiesa celebrates his byelection win with Premier David Crisafulli at Ingham’s Lees Hotel on Saturday night.

As of the close of counting on Saturday night, Mark Molachino found himself on the wrong end of a 16.2 per cent first-preference swing from KAP to claim 30.25 per cent of the primary vote, while Labor suffered a 5.8 per cent swing to end the election night count with just 8.27 per cent of first preferences.

After Labor’s poor election night showing, Crisafulli could not resist a dig at Opposition Leader Steven Miles.

“Before this byelection, the leader of the opposition described this as a test of my leadership,” he said.

“Now that’s a strange statement – as you know, in byelections, traditionally, swings are against governments, but that was a statement made by the leader of the opposition.

“I’m not sure I’ve seen a Labor Party vote in single digits, so that’s something for them to reflect on.”

The biggest beneficiary was, of course, the LNP with a primary vote of 41.28 per cent – a swing towards the government of 13.1 per cent. One Nation also had a good night, with Luke Sleep earning an 8.9 per cent swing to claim 13.5 per cent of the primary vote.

On a two-party preferred basis, there was a 17 per cent swing to the LNP.

Speaking at the Labor state conference on Sunday morning, Miles said he never expected to be competitive in Hinchinbrook, but he was “not dismissing” his party’s poor performance, given how vital Townsville-based seats were to Labor’s electoral chances.

“It underlines how important it is that we do this platform review, that we clear the slate of all our policies and then start working to develop a forward offering in 2028 that can win those votes back,” he said.

“Let’s also remember that the redistribution is likely to very substantially change the seat of Hinchinbrook and the other Townsville seats, so we’ll see how that washes out.”

Chiesa said his victory meant Hinchinbrook would have a seat at the government table.

“I intend not to waste that,” he said.

“I intend to work hard and deliver for a community that I love, and last night, being able to see family and friends and walk into Lees Hotel [in Ingham] with the premier, who I’ve known for years, was a pretty special moment.

“After that, what was going home to the family farm – it was getting close to midnight – a crumbed steak and spaghetti, and then I went to sleep on the mattress in the lounge.”

The result increased the LNP’s parliamentary majority to 53 and relegated KAP to just two seats – Traeger (Robbie Katter) and Hill (Shane Knuth).

The Labor Party maintains its 36-seat bloc on the opposition benches, while the Greens have one representative on the crossbench, which they occupy with the KAP members and Noosa independent Sandy Bolton.

The Hinchinbrook byelection was called when former KAP member Nick Dametto resigned to run for Townsville mayor – an ultimately successful campaign.

The byelection was called after KAP member Nick Dametto resigned to run for Townsville mayor.

Griffith University political scientist Associate Professor Paul Williams said he was surprised by the result – he had expected the seat to remain in the Katter party’s hands, due to a distrust of major parties in the regions.

But he warned the Crisafulli government against reading too much into the vote.

“The big, big, big caveat is that this is not an indicative seat,” he said.

“The LNP will be crowing about this, but they won’t be able to say, ‘this proves we’re on track to win the next election’,” he said.

“It’s not a rogue seat, but it’s unrepresentative of the rest of Queensland. It’s not even representative of Townsville, really, because Townsville swings and Hinchinbrook really hasn’t.

“The fact that they’ve won it does say that people are giving Crisafulli a go and the government a go, but it probably says more about the decline of Katter.”

Former Labor parliamentary speaker John Mickel, now an adjunct professor in politics at the Queensland University of Technology, said a major factor in the win was Chiesa’s strong personal profile in the electorate.

“The loser is rugby league in Townsville because he was a good rugby league commentator,” he said.

“It’s a huge boost for the premier personally. It backs his judgment – he selected the candidate as the captain’s call, and they went with that call.

Former Queensland speaker John Mickel described Wayde Chiesa’s win as “very emphatic”.

“It gives them an enormous boost of confidence going into the parliament next week for the last sitting week. Morale wise, after a year in government, it’s a very emphatic victory.”

There was also the matter of Hinchinbrook voters being forced to the polls for the third – and for Townsville-based voters, the fourth – time in a little more than a year.

“There’s an old adage that if you cause a byelection without adequate reason, you’ll get a biff – so if the member hasn’t died or retired through illness, but just retired, the party that caused that byelection will cop the biff,” Mickel said.

“That’s what happened to KAP, although that needs to be seen in context somewhat – when KAP won it in 2017, they did it on 20 per cent of the primary vote. Last night, they got 30 and still lost.

“It’s the collapse of the non-LNP side of things that knocked them around, but also the dramatic lift – and it is quite dramatic – of the LNP primary.”

Mickel said he would not read much into One Nation’s improved showing.

“The swing to 13 per cent is not to be sneezed at ... but to put it in context, it is much less than the 22 per cent they achieved in 2017 [when Dametto won the seat for KAP].”