Ley leadership to be put to the test in crunch talks

3 months ago 18

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will face the biggest test of her authority in a series of crucial talks beginning on Wednesday as senior MPs expect the leader to side with a growing number of her troops pushing to dump the net zero target.

Tensions were high before Wednesday’s Liberal party room meeting in Canberra, with frontbencher Phillip Thompson, a veteran, saying it was a “kick in the guts” to cut short observing Remembrance Day and conservative Angus Taylor failing to categorically rule out a leadership tilt.

Problems left and right … Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will oversee a crucial Liberal Party meeting on Wednesday.

Moderates who support a watered-down 2050 target have been battling conservatives who think retaining net zero in any form will deny the Coalition the freedom to oppose Labor’s bumpy energy transition and expensive power bills.

Amid veiled threats from moderate MPs to quit her frontbench, two of Ley’s trusted colleagues briefed this masthead that they had formed the view Ley was comfortable dumping the 2050 pledge. Both have discussed energy policy with Ley but sought anonymity.

Ley has kept her opinions on net zero largely to herself since coming to power, spurring calls from opposition MPs for her to show leadership. But two Liberals in the top ranks of the opposition said they gauged about a month ago that Ley believed ditching net zero was politically workable.

This challenges a perception that she had been on the side of the moderates.

Asked for a statement, Ley’s spokesman said the claim she had expressed her position to MPs was “wrong”.

“The leader has not expressed a view to ensure her colleagues can speak freely without her influence on this matter, and any suggestion to the contrary is a serious misrepresentation of the truth,” he said.

One of the sources said Ley would not advocate a position to backbenchers in a critical Liberal-only party room meeting in Canberra on Wednesday, instead seeking to hear the views of the room. But she may put forward a view at a meeting of Liberal shadow ministers on Thursday.

The Thursday meeting will finalise the Liberal policy that will then be workshopped with the Nationals before a Coalition party room meeting of all Liberals and Nationals on Sunday.

As Ley has consulted widely on the policy, internal research seen by MPs showed voters were prioritising high electricity prices over climate action. Other Liberals have registered the reservations expressed by Bill Gates and Tony Blair about climate action costs, while the Nationals and right-wing group Advance have ramped up their campaigns against net zero. All of this has persuaded Taylor, James Paterson and Michaelia Cash to harden their opposition to the goal of eliminating net emissions by 2050.

Ley and her office have been determined not to dictate the terms of Wednesday’s meeting, in which moderates will make a last-ditch bid to keep the target in some form. Some MPs in the right who do not want “net zero” to be Coalition policy are comfortable allowing moderate MPs to speak informally about reaching the target sometime this century, as it is tied up with the Paris Agreement.

Many different forms of wording are being workshopped inside the opposition as alternative branding to “net zero”.

Sticking with the Coalition’s current net zero policy, enacted by the Morrison government, would put the Liberals and Nationals at odds. Ditching the moniker, meanwhile, would anger moderates who helped Ley become party leader, turning it into a high-risk bid to placate her right flank.

Two leading Liberal frontbenchers Angus Taylor and Tim Wilson.

The argument has morphed into a proxy battle over the direction of a party reeling from a historic election loss, with moderates seeking to win back metropolitan voters and right-wingers intent on drawing clearer battle lines with the government.

The party’s reshaped policy is expected to use new language around emissions reduction, tie Australia’s mitigation levels to the average of rich countries and focus on new technologies in nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

Wilson, the only Liberal to beat a teal MP, criticised the Nationals-initiated proposal to peg Australia to OECD nations’ emissions reduction, declaring it a “globalist” target.

“I’m looking for leadership,” he said on Sky News, in a warning to Ley.

Leadership aspirant Taylor heightened speculation about Ley’s future when he was asked to rule out a challenge, saying, “it’s not something we’re planning”.

One of Taylor’s right faction allies, who declined to be named, said they were pleasantly surprised that Ley appeared to be opening the door to ditching net zero because “it’s much easier for us if the mods clean this up this net zero issue” before a possible leadership switch to a conservative.

Tehan, the energy spokesman, said he “absolutely” believed Ley would be the leader in six months after he was asked a question about this timeframe.