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“I think President Putin will make peace and President Zelensky will make peace,” Trump said on the eve of the summit. One day later, however, he dropped the idea of a ceasefire and seemed to accept Putin’s demands for territory.
Trump talked up his capacity to secure a peace. Putin responded by stepping up the war.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin arrive for a press conference after their meeting in Alaska on August 18.Credit: AP
One of them wielded his power with words. The other wielded it with weapons.
The endless talk from Trump has given Putin time to intensify pressure on Ukraine using hundreds of missiles and drones. As well, the Russian army has extended its reach in eastern Ukraine. The Associated Press reported on Thursday that some Russian troops had entered villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region, west of the fighting in the Donbas.
The alarm from European leaders is palpable. Each day begins with statements from Kyiv about the death and injury from overnight strikes, followed by warnings from leaders about Russian aggression. Then the strikes continue.
Leaders including Sir Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany, Giorgia Meloni of Italy and Donald Tusk of Poland have all expressed their dismay at the deaths of civilians in Ukraine in recent days.
Trump, however, has barely engaged on the issue. On Sunday, Pope Leo XIV took to social media to issue an urgent plea for a ceasefire. “I ask everyone not to give in to indifference,” he tweeted. Trump, meanwhile, played golf.
It is not true to say Trump is doing nothing. His main action last week was to impose 50 per cent tariffs on India announced earlier this month as a penalty for India’s purchases of Russian oil, a big source of funds for Putin’s war economy.
A similar penalty for China, which also buys Russian oil, has been pushed off tinto the distance. Trump chose the softer target by going after India, while he delayed a reckoning with China by extending a tariff truce for 90 days.
Trump also approved more weapons for Ukraine. This allows Ukraine to receive 3,350 missiles and matching GPS navigation kits from the US at a cost of $US825 million ($1.26 billion) and will be paid for by Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway.
Donald Trump with Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders at the White House on August 18.Credit: The New York Times
The missiles, known as Extended Range Attack Munitions, or ERAMs, can be launched from fighter jets and have a range of 450 kilometres. They are cheaper, although slower, than ATACM and Storm Shadow rockets, so Ukraine can fire new munitions in greater numbers.
Europe is contributing more than this. Germany pledged €5 billion ($8.9 billion) in May to help Ukraine manufacture air defence systems, and it is sending some of its own Patriot missile batteries. One week ago, Norway committed seven billion kroner ($1 billion) to air defence systems for Ukraine.
The Kiel Institute, which tracks government support for Ukraine, says Europe has delivered and pledged €167.4 billion since January 2022, compared to €114.6 billion from the United States. Trump often claims, falsely, that the US has spent more than Europe on Ukraine.
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But Trump’s main strategy has been to try to pressure Zelensky into accepting a peace deal the Ukrainians do not want – in effect, giving up territory without any confidence it would stop Putin seeking more territory. Zelensky makes a rational decision to reject this path. He needs a peace deal with security guarantees backed by Europe and America.
What other moves can – or will – Trump make? His approach to Putin is inherently weak because he rules out options other leaders would hold in reserve. He has made it obvious he does not want to fund more military aid for Ukraine. He rules out US troops to enforce a ceasefire. He is vague about security guarantees.
The more tentative Trump sounds, the more aggressive Putin gets.
“I’ll know in two weeks what I’m going to do,” Trump told CNN on August 22. It makes sense to be sceptical about this deadline, given he sets and adjusts so many of them, but it might mean he has a big decision to make by this Friday, September 5.
US President Donald Trump heads to the golf course on Saturday with his granddaughter Kai Trump.Credit: AP
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European leaders are suggesting Trump actually has a deadline of September 1 because they think he made earlier remarks about acting against Russia if Putin did not agree to talks with Zelensky.
“If that doesn’t happen by Monday, the deadline set by President Trump, it means that once again President Putin played President Trump,” Macron said on Friday. This only highlights the gulf between the NATO allies: they cannot even be sure about their deadlines.
In the meantime, Trump plays golf. He talks about action, then he talks some more. But he does not seem to know what card to play.
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