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The forward packs, for mine, almost cancel each other out, but there’s no doubt Canberra have more firepower and have been the better side all season.
So it comes down to the halfbacks – Jamal Fogarty and Nicho Hynes. Both have had their issues closing out games and performing under pressure at times.
And while Brisbane and Reece Walsh were brilliant on Sunday making their astounding comeback, I thought Fogarty lost control of that contest.
For the second time in a month, a reasonably simple shot at goal stood out for the veteran No.7. It’s not like Fogarty can’t kick them – his 90 goals this season have come at an 80 per cent conversion rate. But that missed chance to go ahead by three converted tries when Canberra were up 28-12 ended up coming back to haunt the Raiders.
It was the same story in Mudgee against Penrith a few weeks ago. Fogarty could have sealed the win before golden point with a shot after Ethan Strange scored – and normally he would nail that goal.
He has mentioned that he thought he rushed that particular shot. I think he actually took too long over it and muddled his technique, stabbing at the ball and compromising his follow-through.
Daryl Halligan is the goalkicking guru and he has always said that is a key sign of nerves getting the better of someone – when a right-footed kicker stops short and drags the kick left. It’s temperament taking hold of your technique.
Then in general play, I thought Canberra’s field goal set-ups were poor with the game on the line. Hudson Young and Josh Papalii both took runs as Fogarty was setting up and they pushed the play too far and put him under too much pressure.
It’s a learning curve for the experienced No.7, and one Nicho Hynes has had plenty of practice with at Cronulla. So much has been made of how he performs under pressure, and he has been vocal about people writing the Sharks off.
Well, now is his chance to really put that conversation to bed, because Cronulla need their main man to stand up.
The last time these two sides played, in April, I thought Sticky would have his back-rowers targeting Nicho all night, because that’s exactly what Sticky would do to any halfback he lined up against.
Hudson Young terrorised Hynes that night and will be lining up to do it again. I think the Raiders will be more focused on Braydon Trindall on Saturday, given he is now Cronulla’s dominant playmaker. That makes Nicho’s input all the more important. He needs to take the heat off him.
Whichever No.7 dominates and truly owns the big moments will decide this contest.
Joey’s tip: Raiders by 8
Man of the match: Hudson Young
First try-scorer: Sebastian Kris
All signs point to Penrith powering on
The Panthers are still alive, still going for five premierships in a row, and now they’re on the right side of the draw.
They knocked off the Warriors and looked great in a quality contest, plus it wouldn’t have taken the physical or mental toll like the Broncos-Raiders epic.
The slippery conditions in Auckland really suited Penrith because they’ve got the best in the business in grinding, tough games. Nathan Cleary has the coolest head, the best kicking game and the most control in the NRL.
They’ve now drawn a busted and bruised Canterbury side struggling for form and points.
Nathan Cleary was the difference in round 17.Credit: Getty Images
The big question remains over the class in their spine. Even though Stephen Crichton has been named, I think he’s no chance of playing, and he is their one player with real big-game prowess.
Penrith, meanwhile, have Mitch Kenny pushing to come back – and if he does, they’re fully fit.
I expect the Panthers to just be too strong on Sunday, even though I think this Panthers side actually gets more advantage from night games and wet weather.
Looking further ahead, if they get past the Dogs, a match-up against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium in a Sunday afternoon grand final qualifier would be a fascinating scenario. It could even top the Canberra-Brisbane affair as a contest.
This Sunday, though, the Dogs will back their defence to get up in Penrith’s face, trying to bustle them off their game.
They played out of their skins the last time both sides were at full strength – the 8-6 Panthers win thanks to Cleary’s charge down in round 17 – and will have to do so again be any chance.
Unfortunately for the Dogs, I just don’t see it.
Joey’s tip: Panthers by 10
Man of the match: Isaah Yeo
First try-scorer: Paul Alamoti
Time for a rethink on finals suspensions
Rugby league has had some infamous finals suspensions over the years – Cameron Smith in 2008 and Isaac Luke missing South Sydney’s historic 2014 premiership to name just two.
Pat Carrigan’s season hinges on Brisbane making the NRL grand final.Credit: NRL Photos
We can’t have open slather on foul play or dangerous incidents, and the NRL has looked to give players more chances to play in finals – they now have what is effectively an extra strike for grade one offences before being suspended.
But I can’t get past the fact Pat Carrigan should, for mine, be playing next Sunday. In racing, jockeys can have a stay of proceedings for a suspension. Maybe that’s an option for the NRL to consider.
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Finals matches come with more intensity, more pressure and more fatigue – there are going to be accidents. And recent changes in State of Origin mean that grade 2 offences are now punished with fines that are a percentage of a player’s match fee.
At the end of a long season, a finals match can mean just as much to a player, and could be treated the same.
