Is daytime Walsh biggest threat to Cleary’s six-year reign? A sport science expert weighs in

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A theory emerged from Reece Walsh’s emphatic performance against the Raiders – put the Broncos fullback under a warm sun, and his best comes to the fore.

But an exercise and sport science expert has dispelled suggestions Brisbane’s afternoon preliminary final showdown with the Panthers will influence the star No.1’s exploits.

Walsh will undoubtedly be pivotal if the Broncos are to end Penrith superstar Nathan Cleary’s unbeaten six-year reign in daytime rugby league, but professor David Martin of the University of Queensland believes the conditions will not be what determines his output.

Walsh converts a try during the Canberra thriller.

According to Martin, whose career spans decades with the Australian Institute of Sport and the NBA, body temperatures tend to peak in the late afternoon – rising from roughly 37 to 37.4 degrees.

While he said this can improve lower body power and speed, the contrast between a Brisbane afternoon and evening would not have as much of an impact as perceived.

“The temperature change is actually quite subtle from a late afternoon game to an evening game,” Martin said, with conditions expected to drop from 26 degrees to 21 degrees at Suncorp Stadium between 4pm and 8pm on Sunday.

“I can see why people talk about being careful about the time of day, and be careful about the temperature when you play because some of the power athletes might be even more powerful, the fast athletes might be even faster if they play when the body temperature is a little elevated.

“But I think as far as game time performances go, it’s usually more about having a home crowd advantage and that’s been shown to be a big powerful thing ... and to have the familiarity of your home ground.

“It can be a big deal if you’ve got evening rain, or if you’ve got storms or wind coming in, but those are going to be more powerful nuances than just the time of day.”

Walsh put on one of the finest individual clinics of the season in Canberra to book the Broncos’ place in the preliminary finals, scoring a sizzling solo try while coming up with two try-assists and a 40/20 inside the final 20 minutes.

But while drier conditions may play into Walsh’s hands, Martin believed the quality of surface played on would not vary significantly enough between late afternoon and evening to be a decisive factor.

He said any advantage gained from heightened body temperature would likely even out within 10 minutes.

“Even cross country skiers who are out in the middle of the snow, their body temperature will go from 37, 37.5 degrees all the way up to 39 degrees – that’s how much heat is given off when people exercise intensely,” Martin said.

Familiarity with an athlete’s environment also plays a factor, Martin said. While Brisbane will have the home field advantage, the Panthers have lost just three of their past 38 day games.

Cleary has won all 26 of his daylight games since July 2019, with those wins including last week’s semi-final demolition of the Bulldogs and the Magic Round triumph of the Broncos, which Walsh was sidelined from with a knee injury.

Limiting the four-time champion halfback’s influence looms as Brisbane’s most daunting task, however strike centre Kotoni Staggs declared they developed their game to the point where “we can take control of his actions and what he does on the field”.

But much of that will hinge on the pressure rival No.7 Adam Reynolds can build.

The 35-year-old was criticised when the Broncos’ were unable to close out a 14-point lead in the 2023 grand final, when Cleary orchestrated an incredible comeback to steal the title.

There was even talk from outside the Broncos’ walls he should not be recalled from a hamstring injury which had sidelined him since round 22 given the side’s undefeated run since then, only for Billy Walters’ season-ending ACL tear to shut down such suggestions.

Nathan Cleary enters Sunday’s clash with an incredible daytime record.

That led star prop Payne Haas to launch a defence, stressing Brisbane would be a more dangerous side with their captain at the helm, while Reynolds told reporters if he felt the best thing for the team was him sitting out, he would have done so.

While Reynolds’ kicking game and ability to pin the Panthers on their own line will go a long way to nullifying Cleary, he was adamant they could not get sucked into focusing just on him, nor redeeming their 2023 failings.

“Everyone gets different motivations on how they go about their business. I’m coming towards the back end of my career, and you want to make each and every game count,” Reynolds said.

“You want to get the chocolates and get to the big dance. They don’t come around too often and when you are presented with an opportunity like this, you have to make sure you grab it.

“One through to 17, they are quality, but it’s about us this time. We are ready for that opportunity.”