If you have whiplash following Trump on Ukraine, here are some facts

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London: Donald Trump added a revealing flourish to his sudden reversal on Ukraine in his remarks at the United Nations this week, when he heaped scorn on Russia as a weak power that could lose the war.

“Good luck to all!” the US President posted at the end of a social media post that seemed like a total backflip on everything he has said for months about Ukraine losing ground.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump spoke at the United Nations this week.

This came after a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky where Trump said NATO forces should shoot down Russian jets that violated allied airspace – another apparent sign he is toughening his stance against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Anyone following Trump will know that you get whiplash just keeping up with his twists and turns. It can be like watching the players and the ball on a squash court: left, right, up, down, forward, back. It is hard to remember where the ball was two or three moves ago.

That’s why the final flourish is one to remember. Good luck to all? Trump seems to be losing interest in the game. He has opinions about who might win, but does not feel invested in the outcome.

Yes, the president’s casual remarks and social media posts make instant news. But the way to keep the score with Trump is to track the facts.

First, he exaggerates Ukraine’s strength. While the international support for Ukraine is helping it fight, it is not enough to make it win. Trump is part of this equation because US aid for Ukraine has basically stopped since his inauguration.

There was a surge in US funding in the final months of last year, says the Kiel Institute in its regular monitor, and then a little in January. Then there was nothing. It is true that weapons are still being shipped from US companies, but they are now funded by Europe. Under Trump, support from the US has shrunk.

A second fact is that Europe has done more of the heavy lifting in helping Ukraine – and this is entirely logical since Europe has more at stake. The same dataset from the Kiel Institute shows that Europe has delivered or pledged €257 billion ($458 billion) from February 2022 to June 2025. The US has delivered €115 billion, with a small additional amount pledged and yet to be delivered.

While Trump talks about Ukraine winning with European support, he does nothing to make this happen. When he says NATO should shoot down Russian jets, for instance, he only offers a vague indication of American support. “It depends on the circumstances,” he says. NATO is weakened by constant uncertainty about American support.

The options for the US and Europe are dangerous because the best way to neutralise Russian attacks is to send NATO forces to shoot down missiles and drones – a direct intervention the allies have avoided. The more likely alternative is that Europe will have to fund Ukraine in a long war of attrition in the hope that Russia halts under economic and military pressure.

A third fact is that Trump has talked about peace deals without a measurable outcome. His new assessment continues this pattern, rather than embarking on a new approach. He likes to set deadlines and offer his opinion about the war, but the timetables slip. Asked this week if he could trust Putin, he said: “I’ll let you know in about a month from now, OK?” Events prove that Trump almost always chooses delay over decision.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday.

A fourth key fact suggests that, so far at least, Trump’s words do not have the effect he imagines. The numbers show that Putin has intensified his missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, regardless of the words from the White House. The tally from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies reveals the surge in missile and drone strikes this year.

For deterrence to work, leaders must show they intend to use serious power to enforce their pronouncements. The facts show that Putin is undeterred.

The fifth fact is that Trump has delayed bringing any new pressure to bear to change this dynamic. He has avoided new economic sanctions on Russia. He has punished India for buying Russian oil, but appears unwilling to do anything about China for its oil purchases and financial support for the war. Instead, he is busy negotiating a business transaction with Chinese President Xi Jinping over the future of TikTok. This tells Putin and Xi about Trump’s priorities.

Zelensky has welcomed Trump’s new rhetoric, while the Kremlin has complained about it. Perhaps this week will be remembered for a dramatic shift in US strategy.

But here is another fact. Russia has made substantial gains in the war on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War estimates Russian forces control 70 per cent of Donetsk. It controls large parts of eastern Ukraine as well as Crimea. History shows the challenge in turning the tide against Russia, a nation with an immense land mass and more than 140 million people.

Despite this history, Trump claimed Ukraine could not only win back its territory but could “maybe even go further than that” to gain ground. He seemed to support Ukraine, but it was mainly for show. And he exaggerated. This can only deepen the doubts about his judgement.

Rescuers work at a building destroyed during a Russian strike in Zaporizhzhia, in Ukraine, on Monday.

Is Trump really suggesting that Ukraine tries to gain Russian territory? That would only bring more death to both sides and make a peace deal with Putin more difficult. A settlement worth the name has to be achievable and durable.

If Trump’s purpose was to frighten Putin into walking to a negotiating table, the results should be visible in the near future. But those results look improbable for a simple reason: all the facts show that Putin judges Trump by his actions, not his words.

So should we all.

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