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Scroll through our mega-guide to see how the main contenders will poll, round by round. (We’ve collated their Age footballer of the year votes, the coaches’ votes and Champion Data projections.)
And if you’re looking for a roughie, look through our experts’ tips. Zach Merrett, anyone? McClure thinks so, and that could be awkward.
Here are the latest odds
Nick Daicos $2.50
Bailey Smith $5.00
Jordan Dawson $6.50
Noah Anderson $7.00
Matt Rowell $13.00
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $51.00
Caleb Serong $67.00
Tom Green $67.00
Hugh McCluggage $81.00
Marcus Bontempelli $101.00
(Via Sportsbet, as of Thursday morning.)
The leading contenders, round by round
Dawson won The Age footballer of the year award and led Adelaide’s stunning rise from 15th to the minor premiership (before a straight sets finals exit). He earned maximum coaches’ votes in five matches and will be tough to beat.
Daicos is the popular choice among Age experts. Champion Data has him best on ground in nine matches. That’s 27 votes right there. Catch him if you can.
Anderson powered Gold Coast to September for the first time. He’ll compete with Rowell for maximum votes in plenty of matches.
It’s impossible to look away when Smith is in action, on and off the field. He shared the AFL coaches’ gong with Anderson and made the All-Australian team in his first year at the Cats. “Bazlenka” for the Brownlow?
Wanganeen-Milera, the AFL’s first $2 million man, will make the leaders sweat when he surges in the final rounds. Party at the Espy if he wins it.
Caleb Serong started strongly but had to cope with taggers for much of the season. However, recent history shows the Fremantle midfielder polls well and should be in the mix.
What our experts are saying
Jake Niall
1. Jordan Dawson
2. Nick Daicos
Roughie: Jeremy Cameron
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Dawson stood out in a team without midfield star power. Daicos is a machine and will get close again, while Anderson and Rowell will take votes from each other.
Caroline Wilson
1. Nick Daicos
2. Noah Anderson
Roughie: Jack Gunston
Daicos has been a proven vote-winner in his short but brilliant career. He stood out this season when Collingwood were flying and carried the Magpies during their slump. A proven champion will prevail in a tight field.
Michael Gleeson
1. Nick Daicos
2. Jordan Dawson
Roughie: Jai Newcombe
Daicos wasn’t as good as last year, but last year was ridiculous. He can poll two thirds of the votes he did in 2024 and still win.
Jon Pierik
1. Nick Daicos
2. Jordan Dawson
Roughie: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera
Daicos has had another superb season; his ball use is second to none. This year he shouldn’t have to worry about being beaten in a record count. Dawson has been central to the Crows’ rise, while Wanganeen-Milera is an All-Australian and should poll strongly, particularly late.
Libby Birch
1. Jordan Dawson
2. Bailey Smith
Roughie: Ed Richards
A huge year for Adelaide and Dawson, who was named in the All-Australian side and voted AFLPA captain of the year after leading the Crows to the minor premiership. He’s relentless workhorse in the middle and a composed leader – what more could you ask from him? Smith has been a flashy, creative spark who’s added plenty to Geelong. Meanwhile, Ed Richards enjoyed a genuine breakout year, stepping up in the midfield – especially when “the Bont” was sidelined.
Sam McClure
1. Noah Anderson
2. Nick Daicos
Roughie: Zach Merrett
Daicos is clearly the best player in the comp and probably should win it, but Brownlow counts can be strange affairs. Anderson catches the eye with his inside/outside dominance and is sure to poll well in any game Gold Coast won.
Bob Murphy
1. Bailey Smith
2. Nick Daicos
Roughie: Ed Richards
Dashing runs, new kit, long hair and a bright headband point to Smith. Oh, and the Cats win heaps of games.
Calum Jaspan
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1. Nick Daicos
2. Noah Anderson
Roughie: Max Holmes
It’s a toss-up between Anderson and Daicos, but Daicos seems like a safe choice. The umpires love him and he’s probably earned one.
Peter Ryan
1. Nick Daicos
2. Jordan Dawson
Roughie: Max Holmes
Daicos didn’t have as good a season as he did last year but he just polls votes and will take catching. Dawson is consistently the best player in the top-of-the-ladder team, while umpires spent last season understanding how good Max Holmes is, and will reward him with votes.
Andrew Wu
1. Nick Daicos
2. Matt Rowell
Roughie: Jeremy Cameron
Daicos is a proven vote-getter who will poll in plenty of games. Rowell finished seventh last year when he didn’t have an outside game and Gold Coast were battlers. With 14 bags of four or more goals, Jeremy Cameron can sneak into the top 10 at ridiculous odds.
Jimmy Bartel
1. Nick Daicos
2. Noah Anderson
Roughie: Finn Callaghan
The Giants won 16 games and Finn Callaghan was their most eye-catching performer. The line-breaker could cause a Brownlow boilover.
Marc McGowan
1. Matt Rowell
2. Nick Daicos
Roughie: Marcus Bontempelli
Rowell polled 24 votes last year, and was even better in 2025 as the Suns won four more games. The danger is that Anderson vultures votes off him. Daicos will be around the mark, while Bontempelli stormed home, but did not start his season until round six.
EXPLORE OUR DOWNLOADABLE, PRINTABLE ROUND-BY-ROUND GUIDE TO THE 2025 BROWNLOW MEDAL BELOW.
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