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London: Vladimir Putin keeps finding new ways to test Donald Trump and the major European leaders when they talk tough about the war in Ukraine.
That is because the Russian president pays no price for every escalation – and the latest provocation may be no different.
Polish police secure parts of a damaged object shot down by Polish authorities in Wohyn on Wednesday.Credit: AP
The American president is proving every day that he does not know how to respond to Putin. The European leaders are proving that they know what to say, but not what to do. So the provocations keep coming.
It is an extraordinary moment when Russian forces can fly drones into Polish airspace, mobilising NATO fighter jets and air defences in an emergency not seen since the Cold War, without any penalty.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk makes a direct comparison to the years when Poland last suffered from a bellicose neighbour – when Germany invaded and triggered a world war.
“I have no reason to claim we’re on the brink of war, but a line has been crossed, and it’s incomparably more dangerous than before,” Tusk says. “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”
Does that comparison hold? The passage of a drone fleet through the sky is nothing like the carnage of 80 years ago. The drones are not toys – the Shaheds made in Russia from Iranian designs carry powerful explosives and bring death and destruction – but there is genuine doubt about their targets in this strike. It is best to be cautious before concluding this was an attack on Poland – an act of war.
Even so, Tusk is right to highlight the crazy danger from these Kremlin escalations.
Putin has ramped up the missile and drone strikes since his summit with Trump in Alaska on August 15. The nightly attacks show his disregard for Trump’s complaints. The use of Polish airspace shows his disregard for NATO’s collective will.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk holds an extraordinary government meeting following the drone incursions.Credit: AP
Firing drones into NATO territory is, without doubt, an act of aggression.
The Kremlin says it did not intend the drones to pass into Polish airspace. The European Union’s foreign policy commissioner, Kaja Kallas, says the indications are that it was intentional, not accidental. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski says they were planned.
“Russian drones have veered into Polish airspace before – not just drones, but also cruise missiles,” he said.
“When one or two drones does it, it is possible it was a technical malfunction. But there were 19 breaches and it simply defies imagination that it was accidental.”
Is this risky for Putin? While there is a school of thought that says Putin is being foolhardy, the recent past has shown that he can manage risk. Every time he intensifies the attacks on Ukraine, he hears tough words from the West, but feels no steel.
This means his actions are a verdict on American and European leaders. If Putin was worried about their words, he would moderate his attacks and be more cautious with his drones.
Russia is the prime suspect in a series of provocations – poisoning its enemies in the West, hiring gangs to engage in arson attacks in London, and using commercial ships to break internet cables in the Baltic. On a military level, it is constantly testing NATO defences – such as by sending a submarine close to major shipping in the English Channel in July. Now it flies drones through NATO airspace.
The drumbeat of Russian attacks on Ukraine is so steady that it seems to dull the world to what is happening. The nightly strikes trigger tweets of condemnation from world leaders, but the sheer monotony only seems to draw a shrug from others.
Police and medics evacuate Olha Trush, 86, from Yarova, a village hit by a Russian airstrike that killed dozens of civilians, in Sloviansk, Donetsk region, on Tuesday.Credit: AP
While European leaders express their dismay, Trump rarely engages. He has no answer. On this war, unlike so many other questions of the day, he has no “truth” to post on Truth Social. His first response to the drone interception was so vague he seemed barely interested: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
Here we go where? He seeks to convey movement, but there is no sense of a consistent direction.
“I’ll know in two weeks what I’m going to do,” Trump told CNN on August 22 when asked about dealing with Putin. The deadline passed and the peace talks lapsed. Like so many of his promises and timetables, it loses all meaning as the days pass.
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There is an old word for this: Trump is dithering. Every provocation from Putin only highlights the hesitation in the White House.
Will this change? Perhaps there will be an American show of force. But we do not know whether this or any other force will be deployed to deter Russia.
So far, Putin is showing he can provoke without penalty. Again.
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