Five challenges facing Mark Carney

A trade war with its largest economic partner, a faltering economy - and a lot of promises to deliver on.

These are only some of the high-stake tests facing Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as parliament returns for the autumn sitting on Monday.

Here is a look at some of the political pressures on his Liberal government's horizon.

Carney's Liberals made a series of lofty promises during the recent election campaign, from making Canada's economy the strongest in the G7 to "turbo-charging" major infrastructure projects and massively ramping up housing development.

Now, voters are ready to see progress.

Canadians "will be looking for clear actions that make a difference, and that's where the rubber will really hits the road for Mark Carney", said Sébastien Dallaire, an executive vice-president with polling firm Leger.

There has been some movement on big files. Last week, the prime minister unveiled the first series of "nation-building" projects that Ottawa will review for fast-track approvals - a key part of his wider economic agenda.

They include a plan to double production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at a British Columbia plant, the expansion of part of Montreal's port, and building a small modular nuclear reactor in Ontario.

Carney has also announced $13bn (£6.9bn, $9.4bn) for a new federal housing agency to help build new homes, and vowed to diversify trade away from the US.

In politics it's usually prudent to under-promise and over-deliver, said Marci Surkes, chief strategy officer at public affairs firm Compass Rose and a former policy director to Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

"Mr Carney has taken quite a different tack, where he has really set the bar very high in terms of expectations," she said.

She added: "There's already impatience from those who are waiting to see results."

Anxiety around an unpredictable US president helped propel Carney to power last April.

Donald Trump has since imposed punishing tariffs on some sectors of the economy, like steel and autos, but has granted a majority of Canadian goods a broad tariff exemption under the current US-Mexico-Canada free trade deal.

Mr Dallaire said Canadians know it won't be "an easy ride" for the next few years.

"The question has turned to: 'OK, what now?'"

Recent opinion polling suggests that voters are feeling less panicked by Trump but increasingly worried about the economy.

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 7.1% last month, a level not seen since 2016, excluding the pandemic, and economic growth slowed sharply over the summer, contracting by 1.6%.

A poll released by Abacus Data this month indicates that six in 10 respondents felt the Ottawa was too focused on the US president at the expense of pressing concerns like housing, healthcare, and affordability.

Still, for Carney, there's some silver lining. Many don't blame him directly for the economic shocks of Trump's policies - but they will be watching how the prime minister navigates what he has called a "rupture" in the global economy.

"A souring economy will become a drag on the popularity of the government, but it really depends to what extent it happens and to what extent Canadians see visible changes," said Mr Dallaire.

Pierre Poilievre is making his return to the House of Commons.

The Conservative leader lost his long-held seat in the April election to a Liberal challenger and was forced to spend his summer seeking a path back to parliament.

In August, he won a by-election in Alberta, securing a new seat and a chance to be a foil for Carney in the House.

"The real fighting match is about to begin, and Mr Carney is going to have to swat away or figure out how to handle the punches that will be coming at him," said Ms Surkes.

In an open letter to Carney last week, Poilievre set the stage, saying: "So far, you have been judged only by the lofty things you have promised to do one day, not by what you have done."

Poilievre has sharply focused his message on cost-of-living and crime issues and he plans to target the Liberals - who have been in power since 2015 - on their record, as well as on immigration.

That includes pushing them on the number of temporary foreign workers allowed into the country, a programme that has seen a significant expansion in recent years.

An "austerity and investment" federal budget is expected later this autumn - a financial balancing act Carney has said is possible with "discipline".

The prime minister has criticised government spending under Trudeau as "unsustainable" and has asked his finance minister to find programme spending cuts across departments that would increase to 15% reductions over the next three years.

"We need to rein in spending. We need to find efficiencies," Carney has said.

But the prime minister will also have to find a way to deliver on major commitments, including a multi-billion dollar increase in defence spending promised to Nato partners, notably the US.

It comes amid lower revenues from tariffs and other financial challenges, likely leaving officials "shaking every couch cushion loose for change", said Ms Surkes.

"Here we have a circumstance where the government is trying to walk and chew gum at the same time, if you will - where it is both trying to identify cuts and restraint, but also has committed publicly to some very significant investments," she said.

Canadians largely rallied behind the government in the face of Trump's tariffs - but there are clouds of discontent on the horizon.

The bill that paved the way for Ottawa to streamline approvals processes for major projects sparked anger among indigenous leaders concerned it would bypass proper consultation with their communities.

Environmental groups also raised concerns that the law provide shortcuts to get through existing environmental processes.

Most of first projects Ottawa said it wants to get off the ground quickly were already at some stage of development. More controversial plans like pipelines did not make the initial list. But there was still early pushback from climate campaigners.

"Nation building should secure Canada's future, not tie us to the polluting past," said Aly Hyder Ali, oil and gas programme manager at Environmental Defence, in reaction to expansion plans for the BC LNG plant.

"There's a lot of support for trying to encourage the oil and gas industry at this moment, but it's not it's likely not going to stay the same way for a very long time," said Mr Dallaire.

There is also the chance the public sector could balk at cuts that come with Carney's austerity measures.

"I'm not yet sure this government has fully appreciated how complicated and complex the public service can be when they choose to be," said Ms Surkes.