Bowen has committed Australia to reduce emissions by 62 to 70 per cent by 2035. What does this even mean?

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Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen announced on Thursday that Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2035 is 62 per cent to 70 per cent lower than in 2005. What does it all mean anyway?

What is the 2035 target being announced?

Australia is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, the 2015 United Nations treaty on climate change. All members of the Paris Agreement are required to submit their targets for how much they can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 before the next UN climate conference, COP30 in Brazil this November.

The world has already warmed 1.3 to 1.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The goal of the Paris Agreement is to have global emissions peak and then rapidly fall, so that by mid-century the world achieves a balance between human-generated emissions and greenhouse removals by sinks. This equilibrium is also called “net zero”.

Signatories have agreed to pursue policies to keep the global average temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees.

I’ve heard it called an NDC. What is that?

That stands for “nationally determined contribution”. This is the commitment that each country makes to reduce emissions under the United Nations Paris Agreement.

The earlier Kyoto Protocol was a top-down approach, with emission reductions imposed on participating countries. It failed because it exempted developing countries, which let emerging emitters China and India off the hook, and the United States withdrew due to economic concerns.

The Paris Agreement was intended to bring everyone into the tent, so it let countries determine their own reductions. The framework acknowledges it will take longer for developing countries to reach peak emissions and that cuts will be in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.

Countries have to submit new or updated NDCs every five years, and each successive NDC is meant to ratchet up the ambition. Countries can also set more ambitious targets at any time.

Is everyone using 2005 levels?

No. But 2005 is a common baseline, used by Australia, New Zealand, Canada, China, India and Brazil, among others. The United States under the Biden administration also used 2005, though Donald Trump has now withdrawn the US from the pact.

Many developed economies are using an earlier baseline – the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, for example, are reducing emissions relative to 1990 levels. A 1990 baseline is what was used in the Kyoto Protocol, so it makes it easier to compare over time.

Some countries are using later baselines – Japan’s emissions reductions are relative to 2013, and the United Arab Emirates on 2019 levels.

The Climate Action Tracker website – a joint project of Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute – crunches the numbers so you can compare countries’ commitments on a like-for-like basis.

Why does Australia’s target matter when we are so small?

As the National Climate Risk Assessment released on Monday shows, Australia has a lot to lose from runaway climate change. The only chance we have is if the world acts to rapidly reduce emissions. Even with the US out of the Paris Agreement, the momentum in the rest of the world is critically important.

We have two ways to influence that. The first is through diplomatic pressure, which will only be effective if we have a credible, ambitious goal ourselves. While Australia is a small country, it is a major polluter on a per capita basis and that fact does not escape notice globally.

The second is by deliberately curbing our fossil fuel exports, which governments are reluctant to do. See the recent approval of the massive Woodside gas project in Western Australia, described as a “climate bomb” for its impact on global emissions. Because the gas will be exported, it won’t be included on Australia’s emissions ledger.

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen announcing the National Climate Risk Assessment on Monday.

Is the Paris Agreement working?

2024 was the hottest year on record at 1.55 degrees above pre-industrial levels, but this was a single year. Scientists look at the long-term average and on that basis, the planet has already warmed 1.3 to 1.4 degrees. Australia has warmed 1.5 degrees.

Climate Action Tracker analysis shows that the collective commitments made so far under the Paris Agreement are not close to limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees. That situation may improve somewhat once countries submit their 2035 targets.

We are on track for 3 degrees of warming by the end of this century. As catastrophic as that would be, the Paris Agreement has almost certainly spared us from a worse fate. When the treaty was inked in 2015, the world was on track for 4 degrees of warming. Changing the trajectory to 3 per cent from 4 per cent is a win.

Any more good news?

One of the most significant things that happened last year is that China’s emissions almost certainly peaked and are now falling. China is yet to submit its 2035 target.

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