Warmer weather on the way for Victoria, but farmers face another challenging season

4 days ago 3

For those looking forward to this weekend’s warm weather, there’s good news in store – Victoria is set for a stretch of warmer-than-usual spring weather, with conditions tipped to remain mild and sunny through October and November.

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Jonathan Pollock said the long-range forecast for the next few months pointed to warmer conditions, with average rainfall.

A flock of ducks enjoy a spring stroll through the Carlton Gardens.

“Temperatures are likely to be higher than average for most of Victoria during October and November,” he said. “The forecast shows we are likely to have warmer than usual maximum and minimum temperatures.”

Melbourne is set for a warm weekend, with the bureau predicting 25 degrees on Saturday and 28 degrees on Sunday.

Pollock said rainfall in October is expected to remain close to average, with no clear sign of it swinging significantly wetter or drier than usual. As for November, parts of the state’s north and centre – particularly the far north-west – could see slightly more rain than average, but the south-west and south-east are forecast to remain similar to average.

Pollock said the current seasonal outlook closely mirrored the forecast from the same time last year.

“The forecast for October 2024, too, was really neutral for Victoria. It wasn’t showing any strong push towards above or below-average rainfall,” he said.

Canola plants grow in a field near Lara, in Victoria’s west.

“The forecast for November was quite similar in that it showed we’re likely to have above-average rainfall for parts of the north-west, and there was slightly increased chances for other parts of the north and centre”

For Victoria’s farming communities, the warm weather offers both promise and peril.

Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking said the warmer weather forecast could reduce the risk of frost damage – a major concern for crops currently flowering – but it also brings new challenges after what was a dry August and September.

“The warmer than average conditions do pose some challenges because they also bring a bit of instability with them,” Hosking said. “So we tend to get higher wind speeds which dries the ground out. That also combined with the warmer temperatures also dries the ground up.

“Where it is a benefit, it does reduce our risk of frost damage, particularly a lot of our crops that are flowering or grain crops that are starting to fill or flowering at the moment.”

But the key ingredient – rain – is still desperately needed.

“So that’s the real challenge, is making sure we do see good rainfall as well,” he said.

“We do hope and pray that we might see a little bit of rain come through later on, or in coming weeks would be ideal. But it is shaping up to be just that little bit drier than what we expected.”

Hosking said that timing is critical for farmers, especially in the state’s north where crops are more advanced.

“Their timeline to be able to get rain and have it make a meaningful difference is a lot shorter than … further south,” said.

While consumers are unlikely to see supermarket shelves go empty, Hosking warns that the ongoing dry conditions will still be felt.

Grain farmer and Victorian Farmers Federation president Brett Hosking.

“It is unlikely we’ll see shortages on supermarket shelves, but what we will see is that the cost of production for our farmers will go up, so they’ll make choices to reduce the numbers of stock,” he said.

Hosking said beef and lamb prices are already nearing record highs.

“If we see those conditions continue, then we’ll see that lack of numbers and therefore higher prices,” he said.

The official shift toward longer, warmer days will kick in on Sunday, with Victorians reminded to set their clocks forward one hour at 2am on October 5, as the daylight saving period begins.

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