‘Tipping point’: The Nationals defecting to One Nation

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Pauline Hanson is working to win over disgruntled National Party members in NSW. The One Nation leader established branches in the Hunter and New England in the past week at the same time as long-term Nationals have defected to her party.

As many as eight Nationals from Tamworth branches have sensationally quit the party in recent weeks to join One Nation. The most significant is former branch chairman Steven Coxhead, who resigned after a decade in the role to sign up to Hanson’s party.

Barnaby Joyce (top left), Steve Coxhead and Pauline Hanson.

Barnaby Joyce (top left), Steve Coxhead and Pauline Hanson.

One-time Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate turned Nationals member Jeff Bacon has also quit the party to join One Nation. Bacon said there had been a 70 per cent increase in new One Nation members since the election.

“Here in New England, we have seen a 200 per cent increase in members in the last two weeks alone,” Bacon said. “Feedback I’m receiving is that a key reason members from the Nationals are shifting across is the inaction on renewable (intermittent) energy projects, which are affecting every corner of the electorate.

“For a number of people, the tipping point came when National Party MPs in the [NSW] lower house sided with Labor on the Electricity Infrastructure Investment Amendment (Priority Network Projects) bill.”

In a statement, Coxhead said he could no longer support policies that “fail to represent the interests of regional and rural NSW voters”, singling out concerns around native vegetation, energy and net zero targets as the key reasons for his departure.

Jeff Bacon pictured with Pauline Hanson in 2023.

Jeff Bacon pictured with Pauline Hanson in 2023.Credit: Facebook

In serendipitous timing, Hanson launched the party’s New England branch on Saturday night at Wests Leagues Club in Tamworth, just hours after former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce declared he would break from the Coalition after being relegated to the “far corners” of the backbench.

The branch launch had been planned for several weeks before Joyce’s declaration that he would not attend the party room and nor would he recontest his federal seat at the next election. However, his decision was seen as “convenient timing” as One Nation tries to encroach on traditional Nationals territory.

Hanson on Sunday said Joyce’s potential move to her party could spur Coalition MPs concerned about migration and climate change targets to defect with him, citing Matt Canavan, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Colin Boyce as options.

Last Tuesday, the party also established its first branch in the seat of Hunter, alongside an existing branch in Cessnock. Dozens of other branches have opened across the country since the May poll.

The renewables bill has caused much angst among the state Coalition. Regional Liberal MP Wendy Tuckerman quit the frontbench in protest against her party supporting it and Nationals in the upper house voted against it.

Pauline Hanson launched a new One Nation branch at West Tamworth Leagues Club.

Pauline Hanson launched a new One Nation branch at West Tamworth Leagues Club.

One Nation candidate Stuart Bonds, who ran for the federal seat of Hunter, said the overwhelming concern raised at Saturday night’s launch was the rollout of renewables.

“There were a lot of local farmers disgruntled about renewables,” Bonds said. “Out of the 150 people there, there were about 100 people there because they wanted to talk about the REZ [renewable energy zone] issue in particular.

“The talk on the ground is the feeling that the Nats have let people down, and so that is why you have the new branch members coming over. The new [New England] branch is unrelated to Barnaby. It was going to happen anyway. It was convenient timing.”

One senior Nationals MP said five party members had quit to join One Nation, while another said they had been told the number had reached eight. At the same time, 29 new members had signed up to join the Nationals in Tamworth, a source said.

Nationals state director Tory Mencshelyi said membership across the party had grown at about 6 per cent and the Peel Valley branch in Tamworth had been reconstituted.

A senior Nationals member, not authorised to speak publicly on party matters, said the 2027 state election could prove difficult for the party, as the seats of Upper Hunter (held by Dave Layzell) and Tamworth (Kevin Anderson) could be at serious risk of a One Nation assault.

Layzell’s seat, on a margin of just 3.8 per cent, overlaps the federal seat of Hunter, where there was a 6 per cent swing to Bonds, who had a primary vote of 16 per cent.

“Kevin Anderson will also have to watch his back every step of the way,” the source said.

One Nation’s vote is surging, according to opinion polling. The party gained two senators – for a total of four – at the last election, but its lower house vote did not increase as predicted.

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