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Dr Sammy Diasinos, former F1 aerodynamics engineer for the Williams team, says Piastri’s poor qualifying performance over recent rounds could be traced back to the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in September.
Piastri locked his brakes during Q3 and crashed into the wall, qualifying in a disappointing ninth place – his worst performance of the season.
The Australian’s nightmare weekend of unforced errors continued on race day when he jumped the start and crashed during the opening lap, failing to collect any points in Baku.
Since that disastrous weekend, Piastri’s qualifying performance has dropped substantially. He qualified in sixth in Texas, third in Singapore, eighth in Mexico, and third in Sao Paulo for this weekend’s sprint race. He has not qualified better than third since the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August.
“I think that accident [in Baku] has probably resulted in him having less confidence, and he’s trying to take a little bit more of a conservative approach,” Diasinos says.
“Because everything is so tight with the competitors this year in F1, any small margin that you leave on the table is really going to cost you a lot in terms of positions on the track.”
Max Verstappen’s drive in Brazil had to be seen to be believed.Credit: AP
Diasinos says it’s common for drivers to have issues with qualifying performances during tight championship battles and that while Piastri remains a contender for the crown, he needs to be more aggressive. “He’s fallen slightly behind Lando Norris and that’s going to give him what he needs to change his mindset, to become more attacking again and to be more aggressive with the remaining four rounds.”
So what do the next four races look like, and are the tracks better suited to the McLaren or Red Bull?
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Brazilian Grand Prix
The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace, better known as Interlagos, is a hilly circuit, characterised by medium-to-high-speed corners, high downforce and short straights, which Diasinos says should suit the McLarens. If the weather stays dry.
“The one caveat to that is it commonly rains in Brazil and when it rains, all that goes out the window,” he says.
Last year, Verstappen arguably executed one of the greatest drives of his career, storming through the field from 17th on the grid, overtaking seven cars on the opening lap, and winning the Brazilian Grand Prix by nearly 20 seconds in torrential rain.
“The problem with the Red Bull is they have Max Verstappen, and he seems to be able to make cars do things that are not expected, especially when you’re comparing him to the performance of his teammates,” Diasinos says.
Diasinos’ predicted winner: Verstappen
Max Verstappen runs the course under the bright lights of Las Vegas.Credit: Getty Images
Las Vegas Grand Prix
One of the newest races on the calendar, Las Vegas is a street circuit located near the city’s casinos and includes a straight down the famous Vegas strip.
“The circuit has very long straights and short sharp turns,” Diasinos explains. “When you have a slow-speed turn, you can’t use your aerodynamic benefit as much as when you have a medium- or high-speed turn. What’s more important here is drag and Red Bull have a tendency to be able to take a lot of drag out of their car at circuits that have very long straights, probably more so than what McLaren have.”
Diasinos’ predicted winner: Verstappen
Qatar Grand Prix
The penultimate race of the season, Lusail International Circuit is a fast track characterised by high speed and long corners, which should favour the McLaren set-up. However, the papaya team has a mixed record in Qatar. Norris and Piastri qualified poorly in 2024 and Verstappen surged to victory again.
Qatar also features a sprint race, which could provide a pivotal number of points given the narrow margin between the championship contenders.
“If a driver is struggling for that particular round, the problem is compounded by having those additional points on offer during the sprint that are potentially lost or gained by a rival,” Diasinos says.
Diasinos’ predicted winner: Piastri
Abu Dhabi
What once appeared to be an internal McLaren battle at the start of the season has transformed into a three-way title race that will likely be decided under the fireworks at the finale in Abu Dhabi.
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The Yas Marina Circuit is known for its straights and fast corners which should suit the McLaren. However, if we’re looking at past victories, Abu Dhabi is Verstappen’s territory.
The Red Bull champion has won four of the last five races here. Norris and Piastri need to qualify well to squash Verstappen’s hopes of pole.
Diasinos’ predicted winner: Piastri
Where does he think this leaves Oscar? Overall, Diasinos says Piastri can clinch the championship. But the Australian needs to beat Norris to pole and outperform him in qualifying – and he must do it now.
