The trade period is a jigsaw puzzle. Charlie Curnow is this year’s biggest piece

2 hours ago 1

Gold Coast are already out of the Charlie Curnow race – and Geelong know they are up against it, too. The only reason they haven’t given up is that the Carlton star is a “gun”.

Then, in the red-and-white corner, is Sydney, the club that famously lured champion key forwards Tony Lockett, Lance Franklin and Barry Hall.

The options for Charlie Curnow to leave Carlton while still under contract are limited.

Cats football boss Andrew Mackie would not say whether St Kilda ruckman Rowan Marshall – who has requested a trade to Geelong – or Curnow was the club’s No.1 target, whereas his Swans counterpart, Chris Keane, declared the dual Coleman medallist was their “priority”.

Of course, none of this matters unless the Blues are willing to trade Curnow, whose six-year deal does not expire until the end of 2029.

Carlton’s list boss, Nick Austin, said in an internal interview on Sunday that they “fully expect” Curnow to be at the Blues next year, while new football manager Chris Davies repeated that stance when he faced reporters on Monday morning.

“The club’s made it really clear that, from our perspective, Charlie’s got four years on a deal, and we expect him to be at Carlton for those four years,” Davies said.

“There’s nothing that has come to us that would have us reconsider that. Charlie’s a highly valued member of our playing group, and we want him to be at Carlton for the next period of time.”

The ball is now in Curnow and his agent Robbie D’Orazio’s court. Often players of Curnow’s calibre don’t actually request a trade – the deal either gets done or not. But Curnow has a big decision to make: if he truly wants out, he might need to take that step and risk it backfiring if he has to return to Ikon Park.

Emerging Suns key forward Jed Walter was unwittingly dragged into the situation about a month ago, but neither he nor Gold Coast had, or have, any interest in him unlocking a Curnow trade.

With Melbourne’s superstar midfielder Christian Petracca wanting to be a Sun from 2026, Gold Coast politely withdrew from any potential Curnow pursuit – but they may still have a role to play, which we will explain in a bit.

The suspicion among rival clubs is that Essendon are more wedded to keeping captain Zach Merrett than the Blues are with Curnow, even though it would take a seriously strong offer to twist Carlton’s arm.

There are other factors at play. The Blues are welcoming two gun father-son prospects, tall defender Harry Dean and midfielder Cody Walker, across the next two drafts – and both are set to attract top-five bids, which will become harder to match from 2026.

The likelihood is from next year that clubs will have to match bids with draft points from no more than two picks. Carlton know that and will be planning for that possibility.

Tom De Koning’s free agency defection to St Kilda delivered the Blues a top-10 selection as compensation, but they traded their own pick to Hawthorn last year to climb the order and snap up Jagga Smith. Smith shapes as a future midfield star, but missed his entire debut season after suffering a ruptured ACL.

Any extra first-round picks would certainly help the Blues ensure they not only secure Dean and Walker, but start to fill out their list with top-line kids.

As it stands, Sydney have pick 10 this year, whereas Geelong enter the draft at No.18. But both clubs, like everyone else, can now trade selections from two years into the future, which, as explained above, might interest Carlton most.

Another Sun, Ben Ainsworth, is worth monitoring, too, because the Blues are a potential suitor.

Carlton have had all sorts of trouble unearthing a quality small forward, so Ainsworth – the No.4 pick in the 2016 draft – could be the answer. However, the 27-year-old is contracted until the end of 2028, so Gold Coast won’t just hand him over.

That said, the Suns are keen on a contracted Swan, rugged onballer, James Rowbottom, whose own deal has three years to run.

These are the types of equations and scenarios that list managers and agents alike are thrashing out behind the scenes. The trade period is a jigsaw puzzle where the pieces are not always obvious until days down the track.

Ainsworth and Rowbottom don’t hold a candle to Curnow in AFL stature, but they may – with an emphasis on may – help unlock something closer to trade D-Day when there will be greater urgency from all parties.

Sydney would very obviously have to stump up more, likely in the form of draft picks, to have any chance of tempting Carlton.

Ultimately, it is pie-in-the-sky stuff until Curnow’s camp make their next move or the Blues budge.

“I think with any negotiation or any deal you are looking at what could work for your opposition, so that’s no different for this one,” Keane said. “We are open to exploring a few different options, whether that’s picks, players or otherwise, but we’ll get to that at the appropriate time.”