Teals regroup for Victorian election after failed 2022 bid

5 days ago 4

Community-backed independents are preparing to mount a second push to take over Victoria’s parliament, again targeting Liberal heartland seats in Melbourne’s east and bayside suburbs.

In 2022, despite high expectations and large sums of money spent on community campaigns in electorates such as Kew, Hawthorn, Caulfield and Mornington, teal independents were unable to win a single seat in state parliament.

Hawthorn independent Melissa Lowe celebrated her early success on election night during the 2022 count.

But with just over one year until the state election, the drubbing has not deterred the “Voices of” movement, with several community groups on the hunt for candidates and ramping up fundraising efforts to run in 2026.

In the state seat of Kew – once regarded as safe Liberal territory – a well-organised independent group is again preparing to begin its candidate search, armed with polling that organisers say shows strong local support for a community challenger.

Teal candidate Sophie Torney, who has since been elected to Boroondara council, hands out how-to-vote cards in the state seat of Kew.

The group has already begun fundraising efforts with Victoria’s donation disclosures log revealing Hayden O’Connor – who ran Sophie Torney’s unsuccessful 2022 Kew campaign – recently made a donation to the “Kew Independents”.

O’Connor told The Age there was “a high degree of interest” in a community independent running for the marginal seat.

“In 2022, proximity to the federal election forced us into a very short campaign,” he said.

“This time, our preparations have commenced more than 12 months ahead of the next election.”

O’Connor said results from an initial poll conducted by Kew Independents showed an independent “like Monique Ryan”, the local federal MP, would receive more than 30 per cent of the vote, which O’Connor said was a realistic platform on which to mount a competitive campaign.

Meanwhile, Voices of Hawthorn has scheduled a public meeting for later this month, with several independent-linked sources, speaking to The Age on the condition of anonymity, saying the seats of Mornington, Prahran, Brighton and the newly vacant Malvern could potentially face teal challengers.

Community groups that backed teal candidates in the federal election are also considering putting forward candidates in the states seats of Croydon, Ringwood, Benambra and South-West Coast, teal-aligned sources said.

Kos Samaras, director of political research consultancy RedBridge, said while demographic shifts in the inner-east – younger voters and growing migrant communities – continued to provide fertile ground for independents, and political fundraising body Climate 200 would be wise to refine their “scatter-gun” approach.

At the 2022 election, Climate 200-backed candidate Dr Kate Lardner won 49.3 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote in Mornington, creating a tight contest against incoming Liberal Chris Crewther.

Samaras noted shifting demographics in Mornington and on the Bellarine Peninsula were creating problems for the Liberals but said the party’s success would really depend on its internal stability.

“It really depends on whether the Liberal Party decides to explode again,” he said.

John Pesutto canvassing for votes on election day in the seat of Hawthorn.

In a second close result at the 2022 poll, former Liberal leader John Pesutto faced a strong challenge from Climate 200-backed independent Melissa Lowe, who polled almost 20 per cent of first-preference vote, but finished third.

Samaras singled out Hawthorn as potentially more vulnerable for the Liberals, given Pesutto had lost the leadership and could no longer pitch himself as the man to change the party.

In the neighbouring seat of Kew, Torney, who has since been elected as mayor of the City of Boroondara, received 21 per cent of the primary vote, finishing third, with Liberal frontbencher Jess Wilson winning the seat.

Samaras said Kew would be harder for a teal challenge next year given the popularity of Wilson. He said she was the “public persona the Liberal Party needs in Victoria”.

Jess Wilson, here speaking to voters before the last state election, will play a key role in the revival of the Victorian Liberal Party.

“The more people she meets, the more votes she wins,” he said.

Climate 200, which focuses on independents with climate change-focused policies, said the Victorian Liberals’ ongoing turmoil coupled with the state government’s mounting scandals presented a ripe opportunity for community independents.

“Given the strong independent campaigns in Kew and Hawthorn last election, and the woeful state of the Victorian Liberals, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a number of strong campaigns again,” a spokesperson told The Age.

“The evidence is that since 2022, in the absence of independents, the government has become even less accountable – as a catalogue of scandals demonstrates.”

But the funding body argued that independents still face structural hurdles in Victoria, compared with the federal level, where more than half a dozen teals hold seats.

“Victoria’s electoral laws shamelessly favour the major parties – laws that helped oust all independents from the lower house in 2022,” the spokesperson said.

A group of independent political candidates who were defeated at the last Victorian election, including Lowe and Torney, have lodged High Court challenges against Victoria’s political donation laws over concerns the laws disadvantage independent candidates.

In Victoria, donations are capped at $4850 over a four-year period but so-called nominated entities – the designated fundraising bodies of major political parties – are free to donate to campaigns and candidates above the cap.

The case is expected to be heard before the end of the year.

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