Pentagon review flags ‘critical’ AUKUS deadlines ahead of key meeting

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Washington: The Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS defence pact has affirmed the deal’s existing timeline, but warns that all three countries must meet “critical” deadlines for the project to succeed, a person who has read it says.

The much-anticipated review, which took nearly six months to complete, has been seen by members of the congressional armed services committees, and handed to the Australian government. The Pentagon does not intend to make the review public, a spokesman said.

Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defence for policy and an AUKUS sceptic, led the review.

The developments come just days before Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong head to Washington for annual talks with their US counterparts.

Democratic congressman Joe Courtney, who is on the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee and co-chairs the Friends of Australia Caucus, said the review confirmed the most contentious part of the deal – the sale of three Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, starting in 2032.

But it also stressed that the pact required all three countries – Australia, the US and United Kingdom – to meet certain milestones in preparatory work.

“The report correctly determined that there are critical deadlines that all three countries have to meet,” Courtney said. “Therefore, maintaining disciplined adherence to schedule is paramount.”

Friends of Australia Caucus co-chair Congressman Joe Courtney.

One of those milestones involves the US lifting its rate of submarine production, which has languished at levels below that required to meet its AUKUS commitments.

The agreement requires the president of the day to sign off on the sale of any submarine to Australia, which he or she could deny if the US is not making enough for its own needs.

Courtney noted Congress was due to sign off on additional funds for the maritime industrial base in coming weeks, building on more than $US10 billion ($15 billion) invested in the industry since 2018.

Australia is also contributing $US3 billion in cash to the US submarine industrial sector, at least $US1 billion of which has already been handed over.

“The [Pentagon’s] report reaffirms that Congress and our Australian allies must continue that effort to achieve the goals of AUKUS,” Courtney said.

Expanding the submarine workforce, supply chain and production facilities were critical to meet the US’s own fleet needs and those of Australia, he said.

Courtney also noted the AUKUS agreement had now survived changes of government in all three member countries.

The review is critical because the Pentagon, under the leadership of undersecretary for policy Elbridge Colby, maintained scepticism about elements of the AUKUS pact despite its widespread support on Capitol Hill.

The USS North Dakota, a Virginia-class submarine of the type Australia would acquire under the AUKUS deal.

In briefings with reporters, the Pentagon expressed concerns about whether the US was producing enough nuclear-powered submarines to spare three for Australia, and said Canberra had not given sufficient clarity about how it would use the boats – particularly in a conflict with China.

Those concerns were partially neutered when US President Donald Trump fully endorsed AUKUS during Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Washington in October. Trump declared the deal was “full steam ahead”, and should be expedited where possible.

However, in the same meeting, US Navy Secretary John Phelan declared there was still “ambiguity” about elements of the deal, though he did not detail them.

While in Washington, Albanese also acknowledged there were parts of AUKUS that would change, but said he wasn’t going to discuss them publicly at that time.

Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese at the White House in October.

Marles yesterday confirmed the Australian government had received the Pentagon’s AUKUS review and was working through its contents.

Marles and Wong are due to meet with War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday, US time, for annual US-Australia talks known as AUSMIN.