6 days ago
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Updated May 9, 2026 — 8:35pm,first published 6:40pm
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation will gain the federal seat of Farrer in a historic loss for the Liberals after 25 years, as the party’s candidate David Farley surges ahead of community independent Michelle Milthorpe at booths across the regional NSW electorate.
The loss to One Nation removes the seat from Coalition hands for the first time in its 77-year history and delivers a major upset to leader Angus Taylor.
Farley picked up more than half the primary vote in a handful of regional booths across the electorate as ballots were counted on Saturday night. Milthorpe was coming in second, with a stronger showing in the hubs of Albury and Griffith, but it was not enough to outpoll One Nation across the broader electorate.
Liberals handing out how-to-vote cards outside polling booths on Saturday were pessimistic about their chances of retaining dumped leader Sussan Ley’s former seat. Combined, the Liberals and Nationals were polling below Farley and Milthorpe as the votes poured in during the evening.
The Liberals have held the seat since Ley snatched it from the Nationals in 2001, but they are confronting a backlash that has spread across regional centres and smaller towns. Many were this week awash in rival orange campaign signage planted for One Nation and Milthorpe.
At One Nation’s event in Albury on Saturday night, Hanson said voters were turning to her party because “they realise that we are the last hope of changing things in this country to get it back to the country that we used to be”.
“Don’t underestimate us. Remember, it’s One Nation that pushed back. The first ones against the Voice [to parliament], the first ones [to] turn back on net zero. We’ve been out there dragging and kicking and screaming against many issues, but we will do more,” she said.
The byelection has shaped as a test of the Coalition’s electoral relevance and the staying power of One Nation, while Hanson enjoys a period of record-high opinion polling. For many voters, the chaos that has trailed Hanson’s party throughout the campaign appeared less offensive than what they described as tired and inattentive Coalition and Labor machines.
People this masthead spoke to outside Farrer polling booths on Saturday cited water issues, renewable energy, high government spending, poor health services, homelessness, the cost of living and feeling neglected as reasons they wanted change.
“We’ve had enough and it’s time to bring in some new blood,” said one woman. “Pauline’s got the ideas that I think the rest of us are thinking, but a little bit scared to say.”
Farley, whose campaign has been dotted with controversies, said voters should choose the right-wing minor party if they wanted change, and denied he would be a flight risk if he is elected under Hanson’s banner.
The 69-year-old agri-businessman has faced scrutiny over his political history, including his prior attempts to stand as a Labor candidate before the 2022 election and his support for Milthorpe’s campaign in 2025. But these controversies barely registered with supporters, many of whom have dismissed attacks on him as establishment noise.
Milthorpe, a 47-year-old educator, won every booth in Albury last year but faces a significantly changed political landscape at this byelection. The independent, who has sought to distance herself from the “teal independent” movement while receiving funding from Climate 200, acknowledged this contest was attracting much more attention than her attempt to unseat Ley one year ago.
“Every vote counts, so you’ve got to stay positive, and I’ve got lots of people behind me,” she said after casting her ballot on Saturday.
Liberal leader Taylor did not entertain the prospect that he would not win the seat as he gave a press conference alongside the Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski on Saturday morning.
“I said right from the start, this has been a big mountain to climb with a long-term local member who, of course, has left. But Raissa is an absolutely brilliant candidate. I’ll be with her through the course of the day, fighting hard,” Taylor said.
But the Liberals’ primary vote was only nudging 10 per cent at 8pm Saturday.
In the 2022 election, Ley recorded a 43.4 per cent primary vote for the Liberals, while Milthorpe came in second, with almost 20 per cent of the vote. At that poll, One Nation only recorded 6.6 per cent of the primary vote. Once preferences were counted, Milthorpe won 43.8 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate preferred basis, and trimmed Ley’s margin to 6.2 per cent.
But this month’s byelection shaped as a very different contest. The Liberals lost their incumbent and, with the seat vacant, the Nationals entered the race for the first time in 25 years. One Nation’s vote also started surging in opinion polls after the last election, while the Coalition’s slumped to record lows.
Both the Liberals and Nationals have preferenced One Nation ahead of Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards, which have helped tip the vote in Hanson’s favour.
Deputy Liberal leader Jane Hume dodged questions about the decision on Saturday night. “That really is a decision for the party organisation, not for the candidates and not for the politicians themselves,” she said.
Nationals leader Matt Canavan was much more circumspect about his party’s chances, having camped in a swag as he travelled the electorate for much of the last month.
“We haven’t run in this seat for 25 years. We haven’t been on the ballot. So it’s been a big ask, a big task, to reintroduce ourselves to people of Farrer,” he said.
“We’re not going away. I view this very much as a two-legged football final, right? This is a bit of an away match for us, [this] byelection. The government’s not going to change today.”
Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie said she would work with One Nation to form government if necessary.
“I’d be willing to work with anyone that wants to see Anthony Albanese leave The Lodge,” she said.
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