Leaked Liberal polling warns of electoral peril if NSW Coalition walks away from net zero

12 hours ago 4

Leaked polling has revealed voters in almost all state Liberal seats support keeping net zero by 2050, highlighting the electoral peril the NSW Coalition faces as it negotiates a path forward on energy.

Confidential polling, undertaken by YouGov for the Coalition-aligned Blueprint Institute, reveals a majority of voters in almost all 24 Liberal-held seats support keeping the commitment to reducing emissions to net zero by 2050, with metropolitan electorates strongly in favour. In nearly half the seats held by the Nationals, more respondents favoured keeping net zero by 2050 than dropping it.

Secret polling undertaken on behalf of the NSW Liberals highlights the electoral peril of abandoning net zero by 2050.

The leaked 47-page presentation demonstrates the existential risks facing the NSW Coalition 16 months from the state election if it abandons its emissions reduction policy of net zero by 2050. A split has been on the cards after the NSW Nationals agreed “in principle” to follow their federal colleagues’ plan to walk away from Australia’s clean energy commitments.

The polling will be presented to NSW Liberal MPs during a caucus meeting on Tuesday morning. NSW Liberal Leader Mark Speakman, a one-time minister for the environment, favours sticking with the net zero policy.

Federal Liberal leader Sussan Ley jettisoned the party’s commitment to net zero by 2050 after an hours-long caucus meeting last week. Ley and Nationals leader David Littleproud said on Sunday their new energy policy would be technologically agnostic and focused on affordability.

Alongside opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan, they flagged a greater role for gas, extending the life of coal mines and removing the prohibition on nuclear energy under a Coalition government.

Just under half the poll’s 1487 respondents in NSW said the state Coalition should retain its 2050 emissions target, while 33 per cent believed the policy should be dropped. More than half agreed they would only consider a party ready to govern if it had credible policies to address climate change and its impacts; 28 per cent disagreed.

This included the marginal Liberal-held seats of Drummoyne, Ryde, Terrigal and Oatley that are likely to be targeted by Labor at the election.

One senior Liberal source, speaking anonymously to detail internal party matters, said: “The polling couldn’t be clearer, ditching net zero means electoral wipeout in Sydney. Our federal colleagues lost all their seats, but there’s a reason we still hold ours.

“Net zero is a political imperative and ditching it means many painful years in opposition.”

The NSW Coalition was considered a leader on climate change policy adoption. The 2050 net zero target was adopted as an ambition in 2016 when in government, before a roadmap four years later set a target of reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2030.

The federal Coalition’s bruising battle over energy policy appears to be inflicting brand damage on its NSW counterpart. Nearly half of the respondents did not believe the Coalition was aligned with their priorities when responding effectively to climate change and its impacts.

YouGov’s findings were presented to NSW Nationals MPs last Monday and followed a briefing by senators Matt Canavan and Ross Caddell on the contents of a report by the Page Research Centre think tank.

Titled Delivering A High Energy Australia, the document argues the net zero strategy is “failing” and urges the adoption of an alternative focused on lower prices.

After the briefing, Nationals leader in NSW Dugald Saunders said in a statement that “we agree in principle with the federal Nationals’ cheaper, better and fairer plan”.

Saunders’ statement was interpreted by some Coalition MPs as meaning the NSW Nationals would also walk away from net zero by 2050, but the position is yet to be decided by the joint party room. Further internal discussion is expected when MPs return on Tuesday for the final sitting week of 2025.

The polling found the electoral dangers of deserting net zero were not confined to Liberal-held seats. Most voters were in favour of keeping net zero by 2050 in five Nationals’ seats – Tweed, Clarence, Coffs Harbour, Bathurst and Oxley.

More than 50 per cent of voters in Tweed – the long-standing seat of Nationals MP Geoff Provest held on a 3.5 per cent margin – were in favour of keeping the policy, while 29.3 per cent supported axing it.

Pressure on NSW Nationals MPs had been growing before their federal colleagues abandoned net zero. In June, the party voted to abandon its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 at its state conference in Coffs Harbour.

Nationals MP for Clarence, Richie Williamson, said recently the “biggest problem” was that the regions, both in NSW and nationally, were doing the “heavy lifting” on ensuring Australia reached its net zero commitments by 2050.

“What the federal Nationals have done has great merit for regional NSW,” he said, referring to the abandoned policy.

The polling also underscores the Liberal Party’s serious brand damage ahead of the 2027 state election. Only a third of respondents agreed that the Coalition is aligned with their personal values and priorities, with 44 per cent disagreeing and 23 per cent unsure.

In the latest Resolve Political Monitory survey for the Herald, Speakman had reached his highest popularity rating since he took over the leadership of the Coalition, rising 3 percentage points to 19 per cent.

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