‘High probability of failure’: Former top official’s dire AUKUS warning

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Plans to develop a new class of nuclear-powered submarine for Australia and the United Kingdom under the AUKUS pact are likely to collapse because of the shambolic state of the UK’s submarine service, a former top British defence official has warned.

Under the “optimal pathway” for AUKUS announced by the Albanese government in March 2023, the British and Australian navies would introduce a new class of nuclear-powered attack submarines known as the SSN-AUKUS from the late 2030s, with at least five to be built in South Australia.

Retired rear admiral Philip Mathias, a former director of nuclear policy with the UK Ministry of Defence, said he feared Australians were not adequately informed about how the troubles plaguing the British navy could sink both nations’ AUKUS ambitions.

The new SSN-AUKUS class of submarine is set to replace Britain’s Astute-class attack submarines.

Mathias said British politicians had enthusiastically embraced the industrial and economic opportunities of AUKUS and wanted to expand the UK’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific.

“But policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines. People do that and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience,” Mathias, an ex-nuclear submarine commanding officer, told this masthead.

“Whilst the United States may sell some [nuclear-powered submarines] to Australia, there is a high probability that the UK element of AUKUS will fail, making the international row in 2021 over the cancellation of the plan for Australia to build French-designed submarines look like a non-event.”

Mathias, who led a 2010 review of the UK Trident nuclear-weapons system, said: “It is clear that Australia has shown a great deal of naivety and did not conduct sufficient due diligence on the parlous state of the UK’s nuclear submarine program before signing up to AUKUS – and parting with billions of dollars, which it has already started to do.

“In the last four years there have been plenty of announcements and political grandstanding, plus numerous international visits, forums and discussions but very little substantive progress on actually developing the industrial base needed to build and support nuclear-powered submarines.”

The US is slated to sell Australia three second-hand Virginia-class submarines under the AUKUS pact, while the UK and Australia are to separately develop the SSN-AUKUS, a replacement for the British navy’s retiring Astute-class nuclear-powered submarine.

The SSN-AUKUS, currently under design, is intended to enter service with the UK in the late 2030s and Australia in the early 2040s.

Mathias said key organisations overseeing the British program are beset by a lack of leaders with any meaningful nuclear submarine experience or expertise, straining the UK’s ability to support Australia’s nuclear-powered submarine plans.

Even if SSN-AUKUS is delivered, Mathias warned that the boat is likely to be “much bigger and less agile” than previous classes of British nuclear-powered submarines, necessitating trade-offs in capability and operations.

He described as “shockingly low” the number of British nuclear-powered submarines available to counter the Russian threat in the North Atlantic or to escort carrier strike groups operating in the Indo-Pacific.

A lack of available boats means the UK’s ballistic missile submarines are now required to conduct patrols lasting more than 200 days, up from about 70 days during the Cold War, he said.

A spokesperson for the Australian Submarine Agency, which is in charge of delivering AUKUS, said: “The government has always been clear that this is an ambitious program, and we acknowledged the challenges involved when the optimal pathway was announced in 2023.

“Working closely with our partners, we are meeting key milestones and AUKUS remains full steam ahead.

“We remain confident in the ability of all three nations to work collectively to deliver this program. Each AUKUS partner is investing significantly in their industrial bases to meet AUKUS commitments on time.”

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles (left) and UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey enjoy a beer in Geelong after signing the Geelong Treaty for co-operation on SSN-AUKUS last July.

Mathias made headlines in December when he told the UK Daily Telegraph that Britain is “no longer capable of managing a nuclear submarine program” and that “performance across all aspects of the program continues to get worse in every dimension”.

“This is an unprecedented situation in the nuclear submarine age,” he said. “It is a catastrophic failure of succession and leadership planning.”

Mathias, who oversaw UK nuclear defence policy from 2005 to 2008, stressed he was not relying on any classified information in making his assessments.

“In a democracy the public should be aware of the gross mismanagement of this hugely expensive and important program,” he told this masthead. “Our adversaries certainly will be, not least by counting our submarines alongside using satellite imagery and reading audit reports already in the public domain”.

UK defence publication Navy Lookout reported last year that there have been several recent periods when the British navy has not had any nuclear-powered submarines at sea.

“Currently, only one of the six boats in commission is operational, and four of them are at very low readiness,” the publication reported.

The Starmer government announced as part of a sweeping defence review in June that it would build up to 12 SSN-AUKUS attack submarines and affirmed its commitment to “double down on both pillars of the AUKUS agreement” (referring to nuclear-powered submarines and other advanced technologies).

A month later, the Australian and UK governments signed the Geelong Treaty to enable co-operation on the design, build, operation, sustainment and disposal of SSN-AUKUS submarines.

Jennifer Parker, a maritime security expert at UNSW, said she respected Mathias’ expertise and acknowledged there were “huge problems” with the current UK submarine service.

However, she said the investment into AUKUS was more likely to improve the UK’s submarine performance rather than diminish it. “Having more than one country design and operate the new submarines should help address any problems, not hinder,” she said.

Parker said the UK was unlikely to relinquish its nuclear-powered submarine capability given the rising geostrategic tensions in Europe, adding that underwater drones could not perform all of the roles of crewed submarines.

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