Farrer byelection LIVE updates: One Nation aims to snatch Sussan Ley’s old seat in NSW Riverina region

The seat of Farrer has had four representatives in 77 years: three Liberals and one National, former deputy leader Tim Fischer. Ley won it when Fischer retired in 2001.

The sprawling electorate, at 126,563 square kilometres, fills out the south-western corner of NSW. It’s roughly the same size as Greece and North Korea, and takes up almost 16 per cent of the state’s land mass. Its largest population centre, Albury, is increasingly like the suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.

But as you follow the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers inland, sheep and wheat properties give way to irrigation. The areas around Griffith and Deniliquin produce vast quantities of rice, fruit, wine grapes and almonds that feed the eastern seaboard. Head further west, and small communities give way to desert.

The politics of Farrer also change with geography. The Liberals have typically dominated Albury, where almost half the electorate lives. However, at the last election, independent Michelle Milthorpe won every booth in the regional city.

The rural and farming lands of the electorate – the other half – have historically been considered Nationals strongholds. However, it’s been seven years since the party has even represented them in NSW state parliament. The overlapping state seat is held by independent Helen Dalton, and it is likely those booths will return a strong One Nation vote tonight.

Are you a voter in Farrer? We are keen to hear about your experience on the ground, whether it’s long lines at voting booths, tension between party volunteers, or the best democracy sausage in the electorate.

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Much has been made of the meteoric rise in the polls One Nation has experienced in the past few months. Its soaring popularity is a rare phenomenon in Australian politics. The Resolve Political Monitor reflected its primary vote last month at 22 per cent, up from 6.4 per cent at the 2025 election.

Until August last year, One Nation was cruising below 10 per cent of the primary vote in this masthead’s polling, but has since climbed to as high as 25 per cent in the February data collection.

Party leader Pauline Hanson’s personal popularity has remained in positive territory since October 2025. She holds a likeability count of +6 per cent, well ahead of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at -12, but below Opposition Leader Angus Taylor at +16.

Tonight will be the first federal test of the party’s newfound popularity, but One Nation had a bumper night at the South Australian election in March. The party came second behind Labor, claiming 22.9 per cent of the state’s primary vote and picking up four seats in the lower house.

Tonight will be a determining factor in identifying whether One Nation’s vote can continue to hold, and elect the party’s first representative into the House of Representatives.

Wherever you travel across Farrer, someone has a Michelle Milthorpe story.

Milthorpe says that community connection sits at the centre of the movement now building across the electorate. At the federal election last year, she came within striking distance of unseating Sussan Ley, cutting deeply into a margin that had once looked immovable.

Voters’ frustrations with the Coalition have built slowly through years of water fights, disappearing services and a growing belief that safe seats had become neglected seats.

The Federal Court has empowered the Australian Electoral Commission to remove signs highlighting donations from Climate 200 to independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe.

The signs, which feature a spreadsheet of donations to the candidate under the title “AEC Transparency Register”, falsely claim to be displayed by the commission.

This afternoon, the commission released a statement saying they had become aware of a sign displayed at the Springdale Heights polling place in Albury, and that it was “of concern to the AEC”. Other copies of the sign were later found by the commission.

“This sign has an incomplete authorisation statement on it and has the potential to misrepresent the source of the corflute,” the statement read.

Vying for the national spotlight and the chance to represent Farrer until the 2028 election are 12 candidates. However, just four have a realistic shot of claiming the seat.

The two main contenders are One Nation’s David Farley, an agribusinessman and irrigator from Narrandera, and Michelle Milthorpe, a Climate 200 backed independent, teacher and child sexual assault protection advocate who came second to Sussan Ley at last year’s general election.

The Liberals and Nationals are both running candidates in today’s poll. Both Coalition partners claim a right to the seat.

Today is the first byelection of the 48th parliament, triggered by the resignation of former opposition leader Sussan Ley.

Ley held the seat for almost 25 years, after she won it off former deputy prime minister and Nationals leader Tim Fischer.

After serving in a number of ministerial and shadow ministerial roles, Ley rose to the position of opposition leader after the Coalition’s disastrous loss at the 2025 election, in which then-Liberal leader Peter Dutton lost his seat.

The first female leader of the opposition had a tumultuous time in the top job, and was deposed by now Opposition Leader Angus Taylor less than a year into her tenure. Shortly after she lost a February leadership ballot to the incumbent, Ley announced her resignation, eschewing a valedictory speech in the House of Representatives.

That triggered today’s byelection amid surging support for One Nation and a dithering primary vote in the polls for the Liberal and National parties.

Good afternoon and welcome to our live coverage of the Farrer byelection.

My name is Nick Newling, and I’ll be taking you through the final hours of voting, polls closing and results rolling in.

Today’s poll is the first federal test of One Nation’s meteoric rise in popularity, and may well see the right-wing populist party’s first member elected to the House of Representatives.