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Victoria’s Coalition parties have been in opposition since 2014, for all but four years this century and, on their currently polling trajectory, are heading towards another electoral disaster next November.
The possible elevation of Wilson, a 35-year-old, first-term parliamentarian who previously served as an adviser to former federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg and a director of policy at the Business Council of Australia, would significantly alter the competitive dynamic with Premier Jacinta Allan and create a head-to-head contest between two women vying to become the first to win a state election in Victoria.
Others warn that the transaction cost of another leadership change would be greater than whatever electoral benefit a shift to Wilson might bring. “Whether Brad is good enough or not good enough is immaterial,” one MP said. “Another spill will cruel our chances.”
The Liberals have changed leaders five times since Daniel Andrews led Labor back into power in 2014.
Battin’s leadership was widely considered “terminal” after a reshuffle of his shadow cabinet last month that sought to stall Wilson’s leadership ambitions instead disenfranchised some of his own party room supporters. Several sources at the time told The Age it cost him the votes of at least six MPs who had backed him in the December leadership coup.
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Liberal MPs have also complained the opposition has become too one-dimensional in its focus on crime under Battin’s leadership, at the expense of other priorities. The risk of this singular approach became evident last week, when the government made a series of law and order announcements that closed the point of difference between Labor and the Coalition on questions of bail, sentencing, knife crime, youth justice and retail crime.
“It left Brad looking completely flat-footed,” one MP said.
This criticism has come against the backdrop of a series of Resolve Political Monitor surveys, published by this masthead, showing that electoral support for the Coalition has eroded under Battin’s leadership from what was a possible winning position under his predecessor John Pesutto.
However, the greatest impetus for a spill is the approaching end of the parliamentary year. Liberal MPs meet every Tuesday morning during parliamentary sitting weeks. There are just two sitting weeks left for the year — this week and in a fortnight — before MPs break for the summer and enter an election year.
If a Liberal MP wants to call a leadership spill outside a sitting week, they need the signatures of four additional colleagues and to give the party room three days notice of an extraordinary meeting.
Although the Liberals have demonstrated a preparedness to take extraordinary steps to knife leaders – when they toppled Pesutto’s leadership over Christmas – it is the preference of the majority of MPs to address the leadership question in the course of usual parliamentary business.
A spill this week would also ensure that all MPs are available to vote. By coincidence, regional MP Bill Tilley, who has decided not to recontest his seat and stopped attending parliament for health reasons, will be in parliament on Tuesday.
He had no knowledge of an impending spill when he was contacted by this masthead.
