Battin sought to avoid a coup, but ended up creating the perfect conditions for one

2 hours ago 2

The collective ambitions, egos and hatreds that govern the Victorian Liberal party room are like the Komodo dragon. Their bite won’t kill you on the spot, but once bitten, you’re as good as dead.

In the weeks since Brad Battin threw around the magnets on his whiteboard to try to come up with a winning shadow ministry line-up, his leadership was bitten and in all likelihood doomed.

Opposition Leader Brad Battin is facing a leadership challenge.

As he limps into Tuesday morning’s party room meeting – where the numbers, according to those doing the counting, are well stacked against him – he can ruefully pencil in October 10 as the day his short, unsuccessful leadership came a cropper.

There is good reason that parliamentary leaders don’t like reshuffling their frontbenches. Whatever the merits of any promotion or demotion, it inevitably creates ill will among people who may one day have a decisive vote on whether you get to keep your job.

Battin, according to the best estimates provided to this masthead, managed with his October reshuffle to infuriate, anger or mildly irritate about half a dozen of his Liberal colleagues, including some whose support was critical to him securing the leadership last Christmas.

One of Battin’s key objectives, somewhat ironically, was to placate the ambitions of Jess Wilson, the nominal head of the party’s moderate grouping since John Pesutto was dumped as opposition leader. She was made shadow treasurer in the reshuffle and emerged as one of the big winners.

Yet, on the day of her elevation, Wilson was not convinced that this year – or even this parliamentary term – was the right time for her to make a run for the leadership. In effect, Battin sought to avoid a coup that never was. Yet in doing so, he created the essential condition for one – majority support for someone else.

Among those left disenfranchised by the reshuffle included, in no particular order, Roma Britnell, Joe McCracken, James Newbury and Bridget Vallance.

McCracken, who was promised but not given a front bench promotion, is a rising figure in the conservative grouping that rounded on Pesutto after he defamed their colleague and factional ally Moira Deeming.

Britnell, who was dumped from the shadow cabinet, displaced shadow treasurer Newbury and Vallance, who was stripped of responsibility for managing opposition business, are all part of a centrist grouping whose support was critical in tipping the leadership to Battin instead of Wilson back in December.

Disgruntled MPs sunk their teeth deep into Battin. As is the way with Komodo, the wounds never quite healed.

A difficult question for the Victorian Liberal Party is whether, having torn down Ted Baillieu, its only leader to win an election this century, and toppled another five leaders since – six if Battin goes the same way on Tuesday – it is prepared to put down the knife long enough to give Wilson a chance to make the Coalition a viable choice for office.

There are influential Liberals, both inside and beyond the party room, who believe Wilson is the one person capable of leading them back to government at next November’s election. Part of her appeal is the rare, self-awareness she showed in being so reluctant to accept this.

At the very least, a change of leader to Wilson will make undecided voters take another look at the Liberal Party. As crazy as it sounds to say out loud, a woman hasn’t led the Victorian parliamentary party since Robert Menzies founded the Liberals.

Whether these same voters like what they see is another matter.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.