Australia’s worst nightmare is looming for the Ashes. It would be England’s dream

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Pat Cummins out of the Perth Test and possibly the whole Ashes series? It's Australia's worst nightmare, and England's dream.

Back in June, England’s team director Rob Key lamented how Australia have invariably been able to keep their key fast bowlers fit for major assignments, especially the Ashes.

“I always find it slightly frustrating how they managed to keep those bowlers fit for almost everything,” Key said. “That’s the dream, isn’t it? [Pat] Cummins, [Mitch] Starc, [Josh] Hazlewood, with the era that they’ve had, it’s been a lot because of those guys.

“That’s the holy grail, really, being able to keep your best bowlers fit like that for as long as possible.”

Cummins’ back stress problem, which first emerged in the Caribbean in early July, has emerged like a nasty toothache for Australia. Dull at first, growing in seriousness and now requiring his extraction from the team for the start of a blockbuster Ashes contest.

Australia’s record of success against England, unbeaten in Ashes series at home since 2011 and anywhere since 2015, has been largely built on that very thing – the fitness of their pace bowlers.

In fact, the triumph of England's touring team down under in 2010-11 was the last time they had a more settled pace bowling group than Australia.

There’s a difference between settled and injury-free, of course. On that trip, Stuart Broad was ruled out midway through the series, but the likes of Tim Bresnan and Chris Tremlett stepped up to help Jimmy Anderson and Graeme Swann.

Australia will hope that Scott Boland can do likewise in place of Cummins, before the captain potentially returns for the final Test match or two. But without Cummins starting the series, the potential for a knock-on effect has grown.

After Boland, Hazlewood and Starc, the next cab off the rank is probably Michael Neser. After Neser, there is doubt about the next group, simply because they have very little exposure to international cricket.

By contrast, England have seemingly managed to get Jofra Archer and Mark Wood to the Ashes start line fully fit. There's the opportunity for the tourists to land a couple of decisive blows to Australia before Cummins can even get into the bout.

England skipper Ben Stokes is recovering from his own shoulder injury, and this news will doubtless hurry him along.

So valuable is Cummins' leadership to the team, he is expected to be part of the squad throughout, even if not yet fit to play. His wisdom, calm and sense of perspective are seen as vital to the dressing and meeting rooms, although nothing can replace his capacity for key wickets and, often, handy runs.

Much, then, will fall into the lap of Steve Smith, who is almost certain to again be named captain while Cummins recovers. When Cummins replaced Tim Paine ahead of the 2021-22 Ashes, he made it clear that Smith was the deputy he needed in order to overcome the unknowns and probable injuries that could shackle a fast bowler captain.

“I think there's a couple of more unknowns about having a bowling captain," Cummins said at the time. "That's why I think from the outset, I was absolutely determined that if I was captain, I wanted have someone like Steve as vice-captain next to me."

Smith’s case is intriguing too, for he is still in New York building a life stateside with his wife Danni even as the Sheffield Shield is in full swing. NSW wanted him back for the start of the Shield, but Australia’s selectors are playing a longer game with Smith.

For both this Ashes series and all Australia’s forthcoming assignments up to another dual India and Ashes year in 2027, Smith is as vital to the team as anyone. He is now the bulwark against an away Ashes boilover for Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum – certainly until Cummins is fit.