Why this year’s compromised AFL draft is so difficult to predict

13 hours ago 3

Opinion

November 17, 2025 — 5.30am

Expect things to get wild on Wednesday night. That is the safest assumption for one of the most unpredictable AFL drafts in years.

Others have predicted what might happen in each year’s draft for longer than me, but I have done it for long enough to appreciate the 2025 edition is a doozy.

Carlton will need to match an early bid on father-son defender Harry Dean to draft him.

My first two draft rankings this year, in August and October, were a talent order based on my discussions with scouts and my own thoughts, whereas my most-recent one attempted to link to clubs based on educated industry scuttlebutt.

My phone always gets a serious workout, and I sweated and agonised before releasing the previous mock draft two Fridays ago, with one more still to come.

There are copious reasons for why a phantom draft this year is fraught with danger.

That owes to having to forecast where the large volume of academy and father-son bids might come – there could be four in the first six or seven picks, which will alter later selections for clubs – bolters, pending pick swaps, and how incredibly even this class is after the first 10.

Recruiters have been at pains to try to change the narrative from it being an underwhelming draft crop to an even one.

What that means is some players will be far higher on certain clubs’ draft boards than others, which is always the case but more common, and with greater variance, this time.

Take South Australian winger-forward Cameron Nairn, for example, who this masthead revealed was strongly in the mix for one of Melbourne’s top two selections – which will likely end up being Nos.11 and 12 following bids – after previously being projected in the 20s.

Opposition recruiters believe Essendon, who hold the two picks before the Demons, could shape the draft, depending on what they do.

Then, there is Carlton. They know an early bid is coming for their father-son gun Harry Dean, and are bracing to match another on their next-generation academy graduate Jack Ison somewhere in the 20s.

The Blues are busily finding suitors for their No.9 and 11 selections to ensure they have enough points for Dean and Ison, and can pocket some points for next year, when another of their fancied father-sons, Cody Walker, will probably be a top-two pick.

The first eight selections – before bids and maybe even pick swaps interrupt matters – are shared between four clubs, starting with West Coast’s pair, then Richmond, Essendon and Melbourne.

Gold Coast academy sensations Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson, Brisbane Lions academy midfielder Daniel Annable, and Dean are the four players tied to clubs who are certain top-10 selections.

But how do opposition clubs rate them? Will it be a genuine talent order, or will those at the top of the draft bid early on them because of the club they are tied to?

In that case, the Suns are surging and had four first-round picks out of their academy only two years ago. They also have another three academy players rated in the top 40-odd selections. However, the Lions are back-to-back reigning premiers, so should clubs make them pay maximum price for Annable?

Many recruiters rate Uwland – who plays like, and idolises, Errol Gulden – as the best prospect in the draft, but West Coast are tipped to crown Willem Duursma as the dux of this class.

That said, Dean is a tremendous prospect, and there is a serious shortage of draftable key defenders, but father-son selections often slide more than academy products.

Another layer of complexity is whether West Coast and Richmond will swallow all the bids, if it will be an even spread of two each, or if the Eagles might go for one and leave the rest for the Tigers. Could Essendon be left to make a bid?

The industry word is Richmond are more than willing to bid on them all if required, but will they pick an unattached player, such as bolter Sullivan Robey, before doing that?

Greater Western Sydney love blowing up mock drafts with their left-of-centre selections, while Latrelle Pickett – cousin of star Demon Kysaiah – is a wildcard to go anywhere from Melbourne’s first picks to the 20s. It would be a surprise now if he is still available in the 30s.

The late first round through the second round could be a bid frenzy.

Hussien El Achkar (left) and Adam Sweid are part of Essendon’s next-generation academy.

Sydney have four draftable academy players, with three of them – Max King, Harry Kyle and Lachy Carmichael – a chance to attract top-30 bids, while Essendon can match bids on best mates Adam Sweid and Hussien El Achkar.

Ison, Gold Coast’s Jai Murray, Beau Addinsall and Kyle Coulson, and West Coast’s Tylah Williams could also receive bids in this range.

Then throw in a group of polarising prospects, such as Aidan Schubert, Oliver Greeves, Jevan Phillipou and Riley Onley, and a highly rated winger recovering from an ACL rupture (Harley Barker), and you are getting the picture.

Wish me luck, even if I have none of the responsibility or pressure that actual recruiters have.

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