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Alameda: For a coaching group that specialises in nailing the one-percenters, Socceroos boss Tony Popovic and his assistants are not satisfied with 90.86 per cent.
That is, with one match remaining in the second round of group stage fixtures, the statistical chance that data analysts Opta gives Australia of reaching World Cup’s knockout bracket, no matter what happens on Friday (12pm AEST) against Paraguay.
For them, even 100 per cent is probably too low to divert from the course they have set for the team.
The World Cup’s expansion to 48 teams, and the machinations through which eight of the 12 best third-placed teams will still make it out of the group stage, has landed the Socceroos in unchartered territory.
It’s not quite a dead rubber, but they know that only a disaster of mammoth proportions against Paraguay, and/or a run of rotten luck in other matches will lead to their campaign being ended in Santa Clara on Friday - which provides something of a quandary for the coaches in terms of how to handle the occasion psychologically.
“It’s not ideal, but that’s the noise that comes with it,” assistant coach Paul Okon snr said.
“I’m sure everyone’s aware of all those percentages and the scenarios and possibly who we could come up against, and where we would play and what the turnaround would be - but right now, I think that’s the last thing on our minds.”
The fact Okon was fronting a press conference before a closed training session on Tuesday (local time) - usually, two players each day are sent for media duties - is a possible sign of how the Socceroos have bunkered down ahead of this critical match, which will still shape who and where they will play next.
Only a win or draw will guarantee a spot in the round of 32, and a clash with the second-placed team from group G next week in Dallas, Texas - either Belgium, Iran or Egypt.
A draw would also be enough for Paraguay, raising the prospect of a mutually beneficial arrangement: in Italian football, the term biscotto (meaning ‘biscuit’) is used to refer to a situation where two teams implicitly or explicitly agree to a specific result so that both could advance.
But since the third-placed team in the group will likely have to head to Boston to face Germany, there is still a lot at stake for both sides - which is partly why the idea of a biscotto has not been raised within Socceroos camp.
“I don’t think we’re good enough to go into a game from the first minute trying to play for a draw,” Okon said.
“It’s never happened before, we’ve never been in that situation, so it would be really difficult to say, ‘OK boys, today we don’t need to score, so just make sure you draw the game.’”
Okon flagged that there would be multiple changes to the side that fell 2-0 to the United States in Seattle, and at least one of them will be forced.
Veteran Mathew Leckie, who suffered a minor hamstring tear in the second half of that game, has been ruled out of the Paraguay clash, with his involvement for the remainder of the tournament - his fourth World Cup - to be decided after that.
Realistically, the 35-year-old, who scored the famous goal against Denmark that took Australia into the round of 16 at the last World Cup, appears likely to have played his final minutes for the Socceroos.
“It’s very unfortunate. He’s an experienced player. We could have continued to use him certainly in this game,” Okon said. “But whatever happens with Mat will depend on how far we go into this tournament.”
Meanwhile, Okon talked up the way defender Cameron Burgess had reacted on the training pitch to the own goal he conceded in the first half against America.
Instead of using his weaker right foot to clear Folarin Balogun’s cutback, he relied on his preferred left foot which meant he had a much more difficult angle to work from.
The 30-year-old, who played every minute of the recent English Championship season for Swansea City, looked distraught after the match but has bounced back strongly.
