Who is better – Geelong or Brisbane? Decide in our head-to-head poll

2 weeks ago 2

Geelong and the Brisbane Lions are loaded with talent heading into Saturday’s AFL grand final, but a breakdown of the key facets of the field can reveal which team has the edge.

Here’s our look at how the teams shape up. We’ve examined how they line up – on paper.

Cats backs vs Lions forwards

What we say: There is no Joe Daniher to dominate for the Lions this year, let alone an Eric Hipwood.

Instead, the Lions are relying on young Logan Morris to keep performing as the key tall, and hasn’t he impressed? Whether he can deliver on the biggest stage remains to be seen, although he did have two goals in last year’s romping win over the Swans.

Logan Morris is morphing into one of the league’s premier marking talls/.

The robust Zac Bailey, who has 39 goals this season, is always a threat, while we know the quickfire impact Cam Rayner, who may have O’Connor as his opponent, can have.

Callum Ah Chee, who has just one goal in his past four games, kicked four goals in last year’s grand final. And Charlie Cameron needs to get that motorcycle revving. The speedy forward has had an indifferent season, but he can turn a contest in the blink of an eye.

The Cats will argue they had all bases covered in defence – until Tom Stewart was concussed last weekend, and ruled out of this game.

If Rhys Stanley returns, the Cats can cover Stewart’s absence more, for Blicavs can push back.

Henry may be a bit proppy, but we still feel the loss of Stewart’s intercept marking, and creativity and run, will hurt. For that reason, we’ll give the Lions a slight edge.

Centre line/onballers vs Centre line/onballers

What we say: On paper, this is harder to split than the atom, and will likely swing on whether Lachie Neale (calf) plays, and just how fit Jarrod Berry (dislocated shoulder) is.

While listed as a forward, and he will spend key time there on Saturday, Patrick Dangerfield lined up at the opening bounce in the qualifying final, and had Josh Dunkley as his opponent. If they match up through the midfield for long stints, this will be one of the pivotal duels of the grand final. Dangerfield, remember, had a whopping 13 score involvements against the Hawks last weekend.

The Cats also have options when it comes to tagging. Oisin Mullin is a shutdown specialist, and did a number on Hugh McCluggage in the qualifying final, holding the maiden All-Australian to only 17 disposals.

“I was just disappointed with my performance holistically in that match. I got to work … on a few different things that I could improve on,” McCluggage said this week.

Not only did Oisin Mullin put the brakes on Hugh McCluggage in the qualifying final, he also kicked the maiden goal of his career.

“I worked on being a better teammate as well when I’m in that situation, and helping others, and hopefully, I can bring it all on the weekend.”

Coach Chris Fagan has already put the heat on McCluggage to lift should Mullin or the equally tenacious Tom Atkins again be his opponent.

Max Holmes and Bailey Smith are arguably the best one-two midfield running combinations in the league, and have helped the Cats score a goal from 27.5 per cent of the time they go inside 50 – ranked second. Gryan Miers flourishes with his angled passes, while Ollie Dempsey, in his unique role as a wingman/forward, was brilliant in the qualifying final with three goals.

The Lions can counter with Berry (if he plays) and, when pushed further afield, Bailey – then there’s Levi and Will Ashcroft, the latter last year’s Norm Smith medallist who has lifted in Neale’s absence.

We’ll back McCluggage to lift. However, Neale’s questionable status, and roll of the dice should he play, means we give the Cats the edge in this game.

Rucks v rucks

What we say: This battle could take on an entirely different look from the qualifying final, when Darcy Fort and Mark Blicavs essentially went head-to-head. Fort had a whopping 52 hitouts (season average 28.9) and four clearances, while Blicavs had 26 hitouts and six clearances, yet the Cats crunched their opponents.

What is clear is this: Neither side has been particularly fussed about winning hitouts – only five times in their 19 wins this season have the Cats done so.

The Lions, meanwhile, are ranked 11th for hitouts differential (-3.2). Neither side has flourished, either, when it comes to winning first possession, although the Lions at least rank in positive territory.

Geelong’s Sam De Koning and Brisbane Lions ruckman Darcy Fort up against each other in the qualifying final.

Oscar McInerney, the heartbreak tale of last year’s grand final, did not play in the qualifying final, but returned against Gold Coast, and held his spot last week. He doesn’t appear fully fit, so does he retain his spot?

Frontline Cat Rhys Stanley (hamstring) is pushing for a recall. Should he return, he could be a selection swap for concussed Stewart, while also strengthening the Cats’ ‘structure’ by pushing into defence when Blicavs or De Koning help out around the ground.

We’re tipping the Lions to win the battle of the hitouts, but Blicavs will get the job done around the ground. Overall, the Lions get the nod – just.

Lions backs v Cats forwards

What we say: This is a tough call, for it may well depend on the quality of supply from the midfield.

That the Lions conceded 112 points and a whopping 21 marks inside their defensive arc in the qualifying final – their most in any game this year – highlighted the Cats’ dominance further afield.

The Lions cannot let Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron roam free, so they will need to work out a handover when he rolls further afield, and then pushes back into attack.

Shannon Neale is showing signs of being the new Tom Hawkins, while we know how damaging Dangerfield can be leading up as a deep forward. Expect Brandon Starcevich to have time on him.

Shaun Mannagh’s ability to find a teammate inside 50m with a bullet pass has been magnificent, while Tyson Stengle has moments of brilliance.

“We know when we get the ball where most of us are going to be,” Stengle said this week of the forward-line cohesion.

If things are quiet deep in Geelong’s forward line, Jeremy Cameron will roam further afield to get into the game.

Harris Andrews, the Lions’ pillar, will want to free himself up and almost play as a quarterback, so the Cats will need to make him accountable or not go long down the line.

Starcevich is one of more unheralded defenders in the competition, while Dayne Zorko, the oldest man afield, is the play-making half-back and chief irritant. While Andrews is arguably the league’s premier defender, the Cats have weapons aplenty, giving them the nod.

Conclusion: It’s hard to go against the Cats, if for no other reason than the Lions have reached the big dance the hard way, and appear more banged up.

However, history suggests that if the Lions can control the ball, they win. Since 2021, they are 21-2 when enjoying +40 in uncontested possessions, while they are 19-1-1 when boasting +40 in marks.

Both teams flourished in scores from stoppages last weekend, while Dangerfield delivered a performance for the ages.

That the Lions have eight players aged 22 and under, compared to the Cats’ four, could be seen as a disadvantage. This game may well come down to a moment or two of brilliance.

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