Analysis: Iran’s secret weapon in its war against the US
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The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on the argument that if Iran one day got a nuclear weapon, it would have the ultimate deterrent against future attacks.
It turns out that Iran already has a deterrent: its geography.
Iran’s decision to flex its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic choke point through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply flows, has brought global economic pain in the form of higher prices for petrol, fertiliser and other staples.
It has upended war planning in the US and Israel, where officials have had to devise military options to wrest the strait from Iranian control.
You can read the full analysis here.
Two IDF soldiers die in southern Lebanon
By Gemma Grant
Two Israeli soldiers have died during combat, according to their national military, as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon continues to hold.
Barak Kalfon, 48, and 31-year-old Lidor Porat both died in southern Lebanon, according to press releases from the Israel Defence Forces published earlier on Sunday (AEDT).
The two deaths come after the leaders of Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire late last week.
Since the announcement, thousands of Lebanese people have been trying to return to their homes in the south of the country, The New York Times reported.
Cuba struggles under US energy blockade
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Havana’s broad avenues are empty at night. Theatres are closed. Bars and cafes have curtains lowered. It’s hard to find lights in the streets or Cubans making money entertaining tourists.
Under the weight of an oil embargo imposed by the second administration of US President Donald Trump, and the island’s most severe economic crisis in decades, the city’s once-bustling nightlife has gone quiet.
Today, petrol sales are limited to 20 litres a vehicle and owners can wait months for a turn at the pump. Buses stop running at 6pm, and international airlines, including Air France, Air Canada and Iberia, have stopped flying to Havana because they can’t refuel there.
The deepening crisis has led to persistent blackouts, cuts to the state-run food-ration system, and severe shortages of water and medicine that have transformed daily life into an ordeal for many on the island of 10 million.
“I feel empty inside when I see my streets empty,” said Yusleydi Blanco, a 41-year-old accountant. “I can’t be happy when my country is sad.”
AP
Iran broadcasts Hormuz Strait shut as shipowners report gunfire
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Iran broadcast to ships in the Strait of Hormuz that the vital oil and gas channel is once again closed to maritime traffic, with owners reporting gunfire in the waterway and ships abandoning efforts to transit after a brief spell when it appeared it might reopen.
The radio transmission, heard by two owners with vessels in the area, came around the time as state-run news agency Nour reported that the strait had gone back to “strict management and control by the armed forces”.
The decision to close it again was because of a separate blockade that the US had been imposing on Iran’s shipping since Monday, Nour said.
The fresh closure was the culmination of hours of chaos and confusion that resulted in some ships racing to get out, only to U-turn. One supertanker had issued a radio broadcast that it was coming under gunfire, the two shipowners said, asking not to be identified because of the security situation.
A UK naval group also warned that a tanker had been approached by two Iranian gun boats and fired on without warning. It subsequently reported another ship had been hit by an unknown projectile.
Bloomberg
Australia’s plea to Iran and the US as Strait of Hormuz closes again
By Matthew Knott
Australia is calling on Iran and the United States to intensify efforts to negotiate an end to their war after the Iranian regime again closed the Strait of Hormuz and began firing at ships, just a day after reopening the critical waterway.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps announced on Sunday that it would prevent ships passing through the strait while a US blockade on Iranian ports remains in place, a move Iran says violates the terms of a ceasefire agreement.
As the regime claimed victory in the war, Iranian state media confirmed reports that two Indian ships came under fire and had to turn around after trying to pass through the strait at the weekend, underlining the precarious situation in an area crucial to the global oil trade.
Defence Minister Richard Marles said the closure of the strait was “a disappointing development” that highlighted the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement struck this month.
Read the full article by foreign affairs and national security correspondent Matthew Knott here.
Trump was ‘pulled into’ war by Netanyahu: Kamala Harris
By Gemma Grant
Donald Trump was “pulled into” the Iran war by Benjamin Netanyahu, Kamala Harris told a Michigan crowd on Sunday morning (AEDT).
The former US vice president, speaking alongside other potential Democratic presidential candidates at a fundraiser in Detroit, criticised Trump’s involvement in the war and the impact that it’s had on Americans.
“[Trump] entered a war that the American people do not want, putting at risk American service members. And among the many consequences of it, it includes jacking up the cost of gas,” Harris said.
“On average, Americans are paying at least $US15 [$21] more to fill up their tank.”
Harris has previously announced that she is considering a 2028 presidential run.
Iran’s navy is far from finished at the Strait of Hormuz, and the US knows it
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Iranian warships sunk by US and Israeli attacks litter naval harbours along the Persian Gulf coast, but what is sometimes called a “mosquito fleet” lurks in the shadows.
The flotilla – small, fast, agile boats designed to harass shipping – forms the heart of the naval forces deployed by the Revolutionary Guard, separate from Iran’s regular navy.
These boats, and especially the missiles and drones that the Guard can launch from them, or from camouflaged sites onshore, have been the main threat stymieing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
You can read the full article from the New York Times here.
Break in economic data keeps Middle East in focus
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Events in the Middle East are again overshadowing developments in the domestic economy as the Iran conflict stretches into its eighth week.
The benchmark oil price fell below $US90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month after Iran announced on Friday night, AEST, that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping for the duration of a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon.
But traders were left in limbo by Sunday after Iran again closed the vital waterway in retaliation against an ongoing US blockade on Iran’s use of the strait, leaving hundreds of vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Saturday stressed that the strait needed to be kept open permanently, and international plans to restore maritime security would continue until then.
With the last ships allowed to pass before the war started due to unload their cargoes in the coming days, shortages of vital commodities such as oil, helium and fertiliser are set to worsen in the short term.
North Korea fires multiple ballistic missiles towards sea off its east coast
By Emily Kowal
North Korea fired multiple ballistic missiles towards the sea off its east coast, South Korea and Japan, according to reports on Sunday.
The incident marks the North’s seventh ballistic missile launch this year and its fourth in April. It comes as Pyongyang works to boost its military capabilities.
“As the US is focused on Iran, the North sees this as a golden time to upgrade their nuclear power and missile capability,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University.
South Korea’s presidential office said it had held an emergency security meeting.
Drivers’ fuel spend finally drops as oil channel shuts
By Emily Kowal
Australians have slashed their fuel spending for the first time since the start of the Iran war as leaders call for a return to normal oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Data from Westpac shows Australians are beginning to spend less on petrol and diesel as a cut to fuel excise flows through to the bowser.
In the past fortnight, spending on fuel dropped 3.8 per cent, according to analysis of debit and credit card transactions.
“Seeing fuel spend fall back is a meaningful shift and suggests the fuel excise cut is landing in household budgets,” Westpac consumer chief Carolyn McCann said.
But fuel costs were still higher than before the war and some business sectors that were less able to pass costs on quickly were under increasing pressure, she said.
AAP
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