There’s a nasty collision of hate and housing

2 weeks ago 8

Opinion

September 1, 2025 — 3.30pm

There was a concerning tenor to the mass anti-immigration rallies over the weekend, one that is bleeding into the mainstream debate on housing – a nasty collision of hate and housing.

There were extreme and disruptive elements among the thousands who joined the protests, but there were also moderate people who believe they have been locked out of the housing market by several years of post-COVID, above-average immigration.

A further rise in house prices and an increase in the pace of the gain in August only stokes this fire.

Of course, it ignores all the positive aspects to the economy that immigration brings – but for those struggling to get a foothold in the housing market, watching entrants from other countries buying in their street is for them enough tangible evidence of where the blame lies.

(And it ignores the other culprits that play a big part in the escalating price of homes. For example, the falling number of people per dwelling, which is a major factor in the lack of housing. Another is years of under-construction because of higher building costs and labour shortages.)

The housing debate and immigration debate have dangerously coalesced.

With two more interest rate cuts expected in the medium term, the experts agree this hot market is only getting hotter.

Meanwhile, immigration is only one of the housing issues that has polarised and pitted groups in society against each other.

We have the intergenerational battle of the Baby Boomers and Gen Z, in which younger people contend their standard of living and access to housing is below that of their parents.

And then the NIMBYs (not in my backyard) versus the YIMBYs (yes in my backyard), which is a more ideological but highly emotional housing-density debate divided roughly along income lines.

On Monday, NSW Planning Minister Paul Scully accused opponents of new development in Sydney of helping to create suburbs without grandchildren and the key workers needed to support an ageing population.

The long-time friction between owners and renters became more intense as lease prices have risen steeply in recent years due to scarcity of rental properties.

These warring housing factions are turbocharged through social media’s hotbed of discontent and churned into race-bait, income-bait and age-bait.

The latest home-value statistics from Cotality showing prices have risen another 0.7 per cent across the nation, and almost 4 per cent this calendar year, will act as an accelerant to the debate around housing.

Even Melbourne, which has been slow to catch price fever, had prices move up 0.3 per cent in August. Sydney’s market bounded along at 0.8 per cent for the month, and Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth were even stronger.

The median value of a dwelling in Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane is now higher than in Melbourne (which sits at $803,194).

With two more interest rate cuts expected in the medium term, the experts agree this hot market is only getting hotter.

The government’s expansion of the home guarantee scheme for first time buyers that enhances eligibility criteria may have the desired effect of offering some would-be buyers the opportunity to get a loan, but increasing demand will only push prices higher.

“Saving for a deposit is one of the biggest hurdles for accessing home ownership. Saving a 5 per cent rather than a 20 per cent deposit could shave about 10 years off the time it takes to accrue a deposit in an expensive market like Sydney,” according to Cotality’s Tim Lawless.

“While the scheme is likely to be popular, it doesn’t do anything to address the underlying factors that have caused housing to be so unaffordable in the first place.”

Part of government policy on housing is to increase supply by boosting residential construction, but this isn’t progressing quickly enough that supply is keeping up with demand.

The only force that appears to be placing any kind of lid on house prices is affordability.

But it won’t be enough to dampen what AMP economist Shane Oliver expects will be 7 per cent growth in prices this year and up to 10 per cent in 2026.

Auction activity is already starting to heat up, and clearance rates are above where they were in the same period last year as buyers desperately try to buy homes before the next interest rate rise further spurs demand.

FOMO (fear of missing out) is in full swing.

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