The Wallabies have faced the same problem in two defeats. One man can help fix it

3 months ago 17

The Wallabies won’t have Will Skelton throwing his weight around against Ireland but a sharp-footed star who is returning - and is 50 kilograms lighter - could be the key to fixing one of the team’s biggest problems.

Australia have lost their last two Tests, against England and Italy, and a common factor in those defeats was the Wallabies’ struggle to get across the advantage line in attack.

Unlike many teams, the Wallabies still aim to play a style based on holding on to the ball and cycling through quick phases to find gaps in defence. But success relies on runners first getting across the advantage line, to get defenders back peddling.

The Wallabies have struggled to attack effectively on tour so far, however, after the foundational element of runners getting across the gainline was mostly denied by England and Italy.

Statistically, the Wallabies have fallen off a gainline cliff in November. After being one of the better teams in terms of getting across the gainline in 2025 - ranked fifth with an average of 44.1 per cent of total carries - in their last two Test, the Wallabies’ effectiveness fell to less than 40 per cent in both. Against England it was down to 35 per cent, and it was 39.5 per cent against Italy.

“We had success in the Lions series with some big bodies, in Skelton in particular, punching the short side and playing a very direct and flat style of football and getting over the ad-line with some big bodies,” former Wallabies prop Nic Stiles said on Inside Line on Stan Sport.

“And what has happened since then is teams have now been able to defend that better, and we are not moving the ball with as much width that a lot of the teams around the world are doing at the moment. Yes, when we played Italy at the weekend, Carter Gordon came in and you definitely saw an attempt to move the ball with more width, and we played some good football in the first half. But then under pressure in the second half, we reverted to type. We became one-out with our ball carriers and were playing so far behind the advantage line that we were just never on the front foot.”

Wallabies forwards coach Tom Donnelly said the problem had emerged due to inaccuracy at the attacking breakdown. Be it chicken or egg, the Wallabies gave up 10 penalties at attacking rucks in the last two Tests, compared to seven in the three-Test Lions series.

“The last two games our ball was really slow from the breakdowns, that’s (led to) us not creating space for our ball carriers,” Donnelly said.

“We just have to try and create quicker ball, and we do that by our ball carrier being really accurate with his detail, and our cleaners are then our speed to clean to identify threats and get rid of them.

“If we can get quicker ball all of a sudden we’ll be able to play with more space.”

Len Ikitau tries to charge through the Lions defence.

Size and strength also plays a big role in punching through a defensive line, however, and along with getting more from go-to ball carrier Rob Valetini, the Wallabies were hoping to bring 145kg lock Skelton to add a bit of extra muscle for the contact zone battle. But Skelton was ruled out after injuring his ankle playing for La Rochelle.

The return of 95kg centre Len Ikitau could be more influential than Skelton in improving the Wallabies’ gainline stats, in any case.

Having moved to Exeter after the Rugby Championship, Ikitau missed the last three Wallabies’ clashes but will line up at No.12 against the Irish in Dublin.

Ikitau won the John Eales medal last month and along with his outstanding skill, the midfielder’s ability to carry often - and use his feet to find a half-gap - was a big contributing factor.

Ikitau made the second-most carries for the Wallabies in the Rugby Championship with 54 - behind Tom Hooper and ahead of Harry Wilson. But crucially, he was also the third-most effective Wallabies player at getting across the gainline in 2025.

According to Stan Sport stats, Ikitau (53.6%) is behind Valetini (58%) and Tate McDermott (73%), although the injured halfback had a small sample size.

Schmidt had the option of using Ikitau last week against Italy but elected not to, and stuck with Hunter Paisami.

“I think we have been missing Lenny. Nothing against Hunter, he is a really good solid player ... but Lenny has that little bit extra to his game,” Stiles said. “His decision making with the ball in hand close to the line is very good but he also gives that good strong carry over the ad-line as well.”