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Has rugby league’s ever-escalating attrition rate succeeded where the NRL’s salary cap couldn’t?
It’s an argument that has gained traction this season, which saw Canberra become the first minor premiers outside the all-powerful Panthers-Storm-Roosters triumvirate since 2013.
Ricky Stuart and the Raiders were so vocal arguing for a Sunday final – and the extra 24 hours’ rest it affords – because the past four days have made it abundantly clear: The 2025 finals series is the most open, “anyone could actually win this thing” post-season in memory.
And injuries, suspensions, turnarounds, load management, ice baths, pickle juice and nanna naps will be just as significant in crowning the premiers as short balls and sliding defence.
In a final round where only one top-eight spot was yet to be decided, Melbourne lost $2.6 million in talent, two all-important spine players and premiership favouritism; Canterbury lost their far left edge and any attacking mojo and Cronulla lost their highest-paid player and halfback.
The Warriors have been without half Luke Metcalf and prop Mitch Barnett for months, during which time their title hopes have faded further with every passing week.
The Broncos managed to avoid the same fate after losing Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo in one disastrous 80 minutes last month, and Michael Maguire is leaning toward keeping Reynolds’ old-man hamstrings on ice for an extra week having earned the second chance by upsetting the Storm.
The Raiders, Panthers and Roosters are all in good health – particularly the latter two, who by this point in recent years have been held together by strapping tape, hopes and dreams
The Bulldogs’ mid-season slide and week-one finals plight is especially instructive.
Where 21 years ago Steve Folkes repurposed the rugby league bench by bringing a teenage Sonny Bill Williams on as a genuine game-breaker in Canterbury’s last premiership, this season, numbers 14 through 18 (in case of HIA activation) loom more critical than ever.
NRL bench selections and team composition for finals take on Origin-level importance given the increased ball-in-play, fatigue and quality of opposition.
Shuffling a back-rower or dismantling a playmaking spine to cover – as Canterbury did to cover Bronson Xerri’s concussion against Cronulla – is less likely to fly because finals-standard teams are better at exploiting any man-on-man match-up.
In the past seven Origin series, 14 outside backs or halves have gone down injured or been taken off for HIAs.
Carrying an outside back or a utility on the bench that can genuinely defend out wide has emerged as a key consideration come Origin time – and now NRL finals, too.
Matt Burton’s shift to centre against Cronulla threw Canterbury’s attack out.Credit: Getty Images
At their best, the Bulldogs’ bench has been a match-winning one this season. Kurt Mann and Sitili Tupouniua especially have changed contests with contrasts of passing around defenders and barging straight through them.
Canterbury’s bulging utility stocks – Mann, Jaemon Salmon, Bailey Hayward, Connor Tracey and Matt Burton all have three or positions in them – would have them well-placed to cover losing an outside back, too.
But like much of the past six weeks when they have a 2-4 record (with Penrith’s reserve grade side one of the defeated), headaches have grown into out-and-out migraines for Cameron Ciraldo.
Elsewhere this September, interchange strategy and squad depth loom as critical factors.
Panthers coach Ivan Cleary has a rare clean bill of health for his side.Credit: Getty Images
For the past 18 months, Cronulla have thrived when the likes of Sifa Talakai, Tom Hazelton and Braden Hamlin-Uele have entered the fray. Their record between the 20th and 40th minutes this season – when their bench goes to work – is 13 wins for six losses and six draws across that period.
Canberra dominate in the final 20 when star props Joe Tapine and Josh Papalii return for their second stints.
Roosters coach Trent Robinson made note of bench forwards Blake Steep and Egan Butcher (one of the NRL’s most improved players) leading their line speed while South Sydney hammered their tryline last Friday.
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For the Broncos and Storm, their playmaking depth has kept their premiership hopes alive. Only a handful of clubs could cope with losing a halfback like Reynolds or Jahrome Hughes.
Thanks to Brisbane’s signing of Ben Hunt, and Melbourne’s careful cultivation of Jonah Pezet and Tyran Wishart, both clubs are still genuine title challengers, albeit with genuine question marks.
And then, as always, there is Penrith. After winning premierships with Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and half their 2021 side battling through injury, the Panthers are suddenly the fittest of the lot.
A seventh-place finish adds an extra week to their finals campaign and there’s a reason only two sides have won titles from outside the top four.
But not only do Penrith have Liam Martin and Brian To’o coming back from an extra week’s rest, they are the only finals side with their first choice 22 players available.
The Raiders are title favourites because of both their enthralling play and a similarly bereft casualty ward.
And the smart money in this year’s premiership race? It’s on whoever is still able to stand.
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