The Greens went backwards at the federal election. Can state Labor attack?

Labor is looking to go on the march in inner-city seats in November’s state election, spearheaded by a candidate pushing for more safe injecting rooms and social housing.

The Greens believe they can maintain their stronghold and retake Northcote and Prahran despite last year’s disastrous federal election. Newly preselected Brunswick candidate Adam Pulford said it was a lesson for the minor party: “We can’t take any seat for granted.”

Federal Greens leader Adam Bandt was thrown out of the seat of Melbourne in the 2025 election and the party failed to flip target seats in Victoria. Labor now fancies its chances of regaining ground at the state election.

The Greens aren’t so worried. The party’s federal election review, obtained by The Age, put losses down in part to US President Donald Trump hardening voters against the then federal opposition leader, Peter Dutton.

“Concern about the Liberals and Dutton was a significant barrier to people voting Green.”

The Greens don’t see that repeating with Jess Wilson as the state opposition leader and a tired Labor government.

The spectre of One Nation, though, could theoretically lead progressive voters to back Labor to avoid giving the far-right party influence.

“I think Labor will be saying that as much as they can,” says Pulford, a 36-year-old Merri-bek councillor and Brunswick East renter.

The seat of Richmond in particular – which includes Abbotsford, Fitzroy, Collingwood and Clifton Hill — is in Labor’s sights.

Labor candidate Sarah McKenzie – a 33-year-old City of Yarra councillor who rents in a Clifton Hill sharehouse – supports the state government’s public housing tower rebuilds and argues the Greens have used the state’s most vulnerable residents for political gain.

But she said she would push for the number of social homes at the sites to increase by more than the promised 10 per cent.

“I would love more. I will push for more,” McKenzie said. “Ten per cent is great; if we can do more, we should do more.

“If I am elected, these are the sorts of things that I will be a pain about … I’m not just going to sit on the backbench and keep my mouth shut if I’m elected.”

Under the government plan, the housing estates would also add affordable and private rentals.

McKenzie backs the government persevering with the Richmond safe injecting room, but said those opposed to its location next to a primary school needed to be heard and that concerns about safety and amenity must be addressed.

But she said the city should have more of the facilities, even after Premier Jacinta Allan ignored an independent review and abandoned plans for a second site in Melbourne’s CBD.

“Expert reports have not just recommended this [Richmond] one continue, but have recommended more safe injecting rooms in places where people need them,” McKenzie said. Allan has made clear she is not for turning.

McKenzie argues that Greens MP Gabrielle de Vietri hasn’t fought for local issues or shown up for the community after unseating Labor in 2022.

“What do we have to show for it over the last four years?”

Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell, the member for the state seat of Melbourne, rejects that. She said de Vietri — who has a 7.3 per cent margin after preferences – has loudly called for more funding for community health organisation cohealth, pushed against the tower rebuilds and pushed for local school upgrades.

Sandell claimed Greens MPs had broader offerings. “You get someone who works on the local issues, and Gab has done that in spades … but also is going to fight on bigger-picture issues that people in that electorate fundamentally care about.”

She named climate change and “international issues” among them.

The party’s federal election review dismissed commentary that focusing on the war in Gaza turned people away. The review claimed this had resonated “despite a hostile traditional media”.

Sandell concedes the party suffered an institutional loss with Bandt’s defeat, but said there was now record low support for the major parties and a disillusionment with state Labor in particular.

“I think we’re actually in quite a unique moment right now in Victoria,” she said.

Sandell will be challenged by Melbourne councillor, former teacher and pub owner Davydd Griffiths, who Labor thinks has an outside shot. His wife is former MP Jennifer Kanis, who Sandell usurped back in 2014.

Northcote is the state’s most marginal electorate, one which Labor’s Kat Theophanous held by just 184 votes after preferences. Theophanous, who had reclaimed the seat from the Greens in 2018, will again face public school teacher Campbell Gome this November.

Allan has been out in the seat and Theophanous hardly stopped doorknocking.

“I’m focused on real reform that makes life more secure, more affordable, more connected and easier for people in Northcote,” Theophanous said, naming a mental health clinic, early parenting centre, urgent care clinic and upgrades to every school among the wins for her electorate.

“People rightly expect real action, not just protest politics. The Greens talk a big game but the community knows they cannot deliver for Northcote.”

Gome hasn’t stopped campaigning for the Greens, either. “We’re feeling really hopeful,” he said. Though the Greens primary vote plummeted 9.5 per cent in 2022, Gome came within 0.2 per cent after preferences.

“I think people here are really disappointed in Labor ... They’re sick of feeling like Labor has turned their backs on progressive voters and progressive values.”

This includes, he said, delays to fully fund public schools and youth justice changes that could see children as young as 14 jailed for life for violent crimes.

Labor maintains it has a progressive track record, having legislated the country’s first treaty with Indigenous Australians, for example.

Last year, the Greens lost Prahran after Sam Hibbins resigned following an affair with a staffer and triggered a byelection.

Labor did not contest the byelection in what is usually a three-cornered contest, costing the Greens the necessary preferences to survive. It should be a simpler task for the minor party to take it back.

Liberal MP Rachel Westaway knows she faces a hard fight against Greens candidate Angelica Di Camillo.

“I’m determined to make certain I stay in,” Westaway said. She’s also been out doorknocking– “letting people look in the whites of your eyes” – and hears about crime and the need to revitalise Chapel Street.

Westaway hopes Prahran residents will agree that she can deliver more than they got from the Greens. “I hope there’s been sufficient time that people recognise that.”

If the Liberals can’t hold on, they’ll need to find 17 other seats to flip if they’re to form majority government.

Di Camillo, an environmental engineer who lives in an apartment she owns with her partner in the electorate, insists the byelection loss was still a “phenomenal” result when turnout was so low and Labor sat it out. Yet, even without a Labor candidate, the party’s primary vote was stagnant.

“I do feel confident that we’re in a good position now to win back Prahran,” Di Camillo said.

Labor will field Dr Meghan Hopper in Prahran, but is still yet to find a suitable candidate in Brunswick.

Adam Pulford will be running there for the Greens in the place of popular local MP Tim Read, who has a handsome 13.5 per cent two-party preferred margin but needs to focus on his health after a cancer diagnosis.

“He leaves big shoes to fill,” Pulford agreed, naming the Upfield train line, Sydney Road trams and bike lanes, along with housing and the climate, as priorities.

While Labor thinks the Greens are at risk, it will need to decide whether it can afford to put in campaign resources while defending its existing territory for a fourth term.

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