Race-by-race preview and tips for Goulburn on Monday

Track Soft 6 and rail out 7m.

RACE 1

4. Incremental is progressive and nicely bred, and has this at his mercy deep into the initial campaign for the Archibald stable at Warwick Farm. Beat all but the winner in two deeper maidens before working home again solidly on the Kensington track 12 days ago. Right at home in the ground and dropping back to a set weights country race, he’s the clear one to beat. 3. Col Du Tourmalet is a lightly raced improver who went back to the trials after dropping out first-up at the provincials. Blinkers go on, and from a low trailing draw, can run the quinella. 6. Pacific Mick has been honest in four runs back from a spell; while 8. Miss Leeway fourth-up and trained on the course completes the trifecta and first four sets.

How to play it: Incremental to win and quinella 3,4

RACE 2

2. Tough As Stone is both lightly raced and aptly named, and can make it two straight wins at just his third outing. Trained here, and toyed with his rivals from off the speed at Corowa three weeks ago. Can go on to win better races. 1. Brass Monkeys is a home track rival who has hit the line nicely in two runs this prep. Blinkers come off, and he’s drawn to get a soft run. Watch the betting closely on 4. Bulla Vinaka and local 8. Cool As Popeye who both resume with no public trials.

How to play it: Tough As Stone to win

RACE 3

8. Home Missile is a two-year-old by boom sire Home Affairs again from the Archibald yard who can make an instant statement on debut. Fitted with two trials virtually up to this trip, the latest drifting back after covering ground and doing his best work late when not pushed out. Bred to relish soft ground, and should lap up the long straight here. Keep safe 9. Thronebound, a two-year-old stablemate of the top selection, also by Home Affairs who starts behind two improving trials. 11. Divine Timing resumes for a second prep off a quiet trial.12. Monocru draws to find cover back in the field fourth-up, with a superior jockey taking over.

How to play it: Home Missile to win

RACE 4

4. Reinczech is a debutante filly by Prague in the Danielle Seib stable at Canberra who was scratched from Wagga on Sunday to be saved for this. Given a very quiet time in a recent trial, but reportedly has been working well, and the jockey booking is significant. 3. Fortythreebeans is a progressive home track filly likely to start a hot favourite in a very average maiden. Worked home in to a place at Wagga two starts back before reloading off a five-week freshen, and only missed by a long head. Stronger jockey goes on, and is the stand-out threat. Gap to the rest headed by home tracker 9. Corio Willow, improving second-up, while 5. Fred Astern at bigger odds can add value into exotic bets.

How to play it: Reinczech to win

RACE 5

8. Sahara Splash is a progressive mare who can make it two straight wins this prep in a very open race, and cap a big day for the Archibald stable. Plenty to like about her first-up win at Taree, coming from midfield in heavy ground. Stronger jockey goes on, and this isn’t much tougher. 6. Magenta Shores can find a second-up peak here over 100m further after holding her ground in a tougher BM 64 at Newcastle. 7. Think I’m Irish is very fit, drawn the fence, and comes through some handy form lines. 4. Ken’Ker wasn’t far away in heavy going at Nowra second-up, and drew to get an economical run. 3. Jalmari can run a race fourth-up despite drawing wide. 11. Call Me Artie heads the rest.

How to play it: Sahara Splash to win

RACE 6

4. Septimus is an underrated metro-based four-year-old who can claim an overdue second career win deep into the campaign, and dropping back from deeper provincial grade. Was only a length from the winner in a country BM 66 run on a very heavy surface before making late ground in a BM 64 at Wyong. Better placed here with a stronger jockey aboard, he can settle back before producing a superior closing 400m sectional. 6. Reel Crystal is the obvious threat after beating all but the winner in his last two after a dominant CL1 win at Canberra. 1. My Greek God has shown glimpses of improvement in three provincial runs back from a break, and the drop to weaker country level can be the trigger to find his best, despite climbing in weight. 2. Justifiably couldn’t be fitter, and can run into the minor money; while 5. Don’t Tell Polly drops back significantly in quality after being thrashed in a metro BM 72.

How to play it: Septimus to win

RACE 7

10. Extrio is a progressive Canberra filly who emerges as the best value third-up in a very wide and tough race, dropping back from much slicker metro opposition. Won two straight prior to that from off speed carrying big weights, and from the outside draw she can stay out of trouble and finish best. 6. Tommy Flyer will appreciate a bit more ground second-up. 15. Harry’s Halo is well-placed second-up coming back from a provincial BM 64 if he gets a run. Keep safe home tracker 7. Ischyros who is more comfortable back in this weaker company after two spaced runs in Saturday CL3 Highways. 11. Win The Day hit the line hard second-up in a similar race at the Sapphire Coast, but the inside ground late in the day might not do her any favours. 3. Butterfly Style is an improver well into the prep, and dropping in quality. 9. Anarita, second-up from a wide gate, goes through wider exotic plays.

How to play it: Extrio to win

BEST BETS:
R2 2. TOUGH AS STONE
R3 8. HOME MISSILE

BEST VALUE:
R6 4. SEPTIMUS

Supplied by Racing NSW