Race-by-race: How Oscar Piastri can become 2025 world champion

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Championship leader Oscar Piastri is now 34 points ahead of Lando Norris after his teammate’s forced retirement in the closing stages of the Dutch Grand Prix.

With a maximum of 249 points on offer to any individual driver in the final nine rounds of the season, Piastri is by no means across the finish line yet.

With everything we know from their two seasons together, and what we have learnt this year, we take a look at whether Piastri can cruise to victory in the final nine rounds and three sprint races to become the first Australian F1 champion since Alan Jones in 1980, or whether Norris can reel him in.

Here’s our race-by-race verdict.

Italian Grand Prix

As was most often the case in 2024, Norris qualified ahead at Monza last year but not by a great deal. Just over a tenth of a second separated the pair. That is very much as it has been in 2025.

The race, though, was where Piastri asserted his authority over Norris. He qualified one spot behind but put a bold move on his teammate at the second chicane on the opening lap, taking the lead. On the day, he lost out to Ferrari’s one-stop strategy, but still finished in front of Norris.

The high-speed Monza circuit is a track where pushing too hard can lead to a locked brake and losing time that’s difficult to get back in qualifying. Could Norris’s new all-out attack approach hinder him in Italy?

Our verdict: Piastri

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Looking at their results from the past two seasons, Azerbaijan is one of only two races where Piastri has an advantage in average finishing position. That is largely thanks to his victory there last year, which was more decisive and impressive than his maiden grand prix win in Hungary.

It is difficult to directly compare Norris’s 2024 performance in Baku to Piastri, given a mistake in qualifying, but surely an imperious win there – and a bold overtake – will give the Australian the edge. That said, Norris fought back from 16th on the grid to fourth, and the McLaren car is likely to be strong.

Our verdict: Piastri

Singapore Grand Prix

Whilst it is not universally true, Norris has tended to excel on street circuits. In Singapore last year, his advantage in both qualifying (0.4sec) and the race (first to Piastri’s third) was fairly pronounced, as it was in 2023. Singapore is also a more traditional street circuit, a little closer in style to Monaco, where Norris won in May, than Baku.

Given Piastri’s rapid improvement in almost all areas, he should pose more of a threat this year. If Norris can remain error-free in qualifying, then he should go down as favourite at Marina Bay.

Our verdict: Norris

United States Grand Prix

Norris was clearly ahead of Piastri at the Circuit of the Americas last year, with a gap of 0.6 seconds in qualifying. Piastri did not even make it out of the first part of sprint qualifying either, whilst Norris was fourth.

It is difficult to see him putting a gap like that on Piastri in 2025, given the Australian’s progress from last season to this. Still, Norris likes this track, and Piastri has struggled. Advantage Norris.

Our verdict: Norris

Mexico City Grand Prix

Looking at results from 2023 and 2024, Mexico City is a track where Norris has the largest advantage statistically. That was primarily because Piastri only qualified 17th last season, whilst Norris qualified third before his controversial tussle with Verstappen.

Yet in 2023, Norris qualified in 19th but managed to charge through the field to finish ahead of Piastri, who started seventh. It’s fair to say that something has not quite clicked for the Australian in Mexico.

Our verdict: Norris

Oscar Piastri at the 2024 Mexican Grand Prix.

Brazilian Grand Prix

Looking at the form book for Sao Paulo is not the most useful because of how wet and chaotic last year’s event was. Again, the Briton holds the better record during the past two years. In two grand prix and two sprint races, Piastri has only scored 11 points to Norris’s 43 in the same period.

Yet, that would have been the case at plenty of tracks throughout 2025, too. Look how that has played out. Let’s not forget that Piastri took the sprint pole and was on course to win before moving over and handing victory to his team-mate.

There is something about this track’s layout that suggests this will be another circuit where Piastri renders what has transpired in past seasons irrelevant.

Our verdict: Piastri

Las Vegas Grand Prix

The Las Vegas Strip is McLaren’s weakest track of the 2025 run-in. In its two years in F1 the team have yet to score a podium in Nevada with a best finish of sixth for Norris last season. Indeed, both men were eliminated in Q1 in 2023.

The margins, though, have been small in both seasons. Combine that with Piastri’s general improvement in all areas this season and means he just moves as a slight favourite, though you may as well toss a coin.

Our verdict: Piastri

Qatar Grand Prix

The Lusail International Circuit was the track where Piastri truly announced himself as a top-quality F1 driver, winning the sprint race from pole in 2023 in a season where Max Verstappen dominated. Of all these nine tracks it is the place where Piastri has had the most decisive advantage.

That said, some of the deficit from last year comes down to Norris handing Piastri the sprint race win to return the favour from Brazil as well as a hefty penalty for Norris ignoring yellow flags, which dropped him to 10th in the main race. Still, the high-speed layout suits Piastri’s strengths.

Our verdict: Piastri

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

If the championship is still alive at this point it means Norris has outscored Piastri by at least 10 points over the previous eight rounds. To have a realistic chance of winning the title – given a McLaren one-two seems the most likely outcome at every race – he would need to be within six or seven points of his team-mate. That means outscoring Piastri by something like 30 points over eight races.

Again, this is a track where it is difficult to make any strong conclusions. Piastri was tagged by Verstappen at the start of the race last season, having qualified a couple of tenths behind Norris. In 2023 the margins were again small.

Using the earlier logic of Piastri’s all-round improvement, we give it to him.

Our verdict: Piastri

Oscar Piastri with McLaren boss Zak Brown and teammate Lando Norris.

If it played out like we suggested then Piastri’s six victories would surely be enough to give him the title, perhaps even before the final round. Yet the gaps between the two team-mates have been small for most of the season and will likely continue to be.

Piastri has also improved significantly in several areas – better qualifying execution and being kinder to his tyres in races – which is why he is leading the championship in 2025, having been fairly comfortably beaten by Norris in both 2023 and 2024.

In any case, it will not be past form that proves decisive. It will be how each driver responds to the challenges and increasing pressure over the next few months.

The Telegraph, London. Additional reporting Billie Eder

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