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NSW is facing a massive shortfall in its five-year housing target, tracking about 40 per cent behind the rate required to meet the Minns government’s commitments under the National Housing Accord.
Only 67,502 homes were completed in NSW between the accord’s inception in July 2024 and December last year – about 46,000 short of the 113,000 required in that period.
Two years since Premier Chris Minns signed the agreement, which was to deliver 75,400 homes in NSW each year until June 2029, housing supply remains stagnant in the face of tough economic conditions and despite the state government’s broad planning reforms.
The release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) completion data next week will almost certainly confirm NSW has fallen further behind the target. The state’s population rose to 8.6 million in December 2025, increasing by more than 150,000 people since mid-2024, with net overseas migration the largest contributor.
Housing supply has struggled against high interest rates and rampant inflation, with apartment building becoming financially unfeasible across large tracts of Sydney. About 45,000 dwellings were completed in each of the past two years, considerably below the target.
The 2025-26 NSW budget included forecasts of net completions until the end of the housing accord period, showing that figure would increase only slightly. This year, the government included a graphic charting approvals only until April 2026 and commencements until December 2025.
The number of housing starts increased to nearly 53,000 in the 12 months until December 2025, while the release of the latest ABS quarterly data on Wednesday showed 52,000 approvals in the year to May.
Planning Minister Paul Scully argues “thousands” of dwellings are being excluded from the count because of outdated data rules applied by the ABS. In an interview on 2GB on Wednesday, Scully defended the government’s record on delivering housing, saying NSW had nearly 80,000 homes under construction today to be delivered “over the next five years”, which was the “highest in the country”.
Scully said there had been 70,000 completions since the housing accord began, but argued the ABS and the accord failed to capture significant housing types such as those for students and seniors.
Asked how many completed homes were excluded, Scully’s office declined to provide an exact figure.
“It is common sense that we should be factoring in all types of homes when we talk about completions, but currently ABS data excludes important housing types like student accommodation and seniors housing, which account for thousands of new homes,” Scully said.
After this masthead pointed out that seniors living was included in the accord figures, the minister’s office clarified he was referring to “residential aged care homes”. However, analysis released in October 2025 by Bolton Clarke, an independent aged care provider, found the number of aged care beds in NSW suffered a net decline of 79 in the 2024-25 financial year.
In March last year, an ABS report found that over three financial years to 2023-24, 4791 student accommodation rooms were approved for construction in NSW, a yearly average of 1597.
A federal Treasury briefing note dated July 2024 warned there were notable risks in expanding the definition of dwelling in the accord to include other types of housing.
“It may be criticised by stakeholders as changing the rules to make it easier to meet targets without delivering more dwellings that people could live in permanently,” the note stated.
“Broadening the accord target creates a risk that the government may be criticised for ‘moving the goalposts’ to make the target easier to achieve, and undermine the credibility of the target.”
To be considered a dwelling by the ABS, the briefing note stated, a building must satisfy two criteria: independent living facilities and long-term, ongoing tenancy.
Existing student accommodation often counted individual “beds” rather than self-contained dwellings, and offerings were rarely available for the long term, the briefing noted. It argued residential aged care homes should not qualify because they are not considered independent living facilities.
Liberal planning spokesman Chris Rath said the second anniversary of the housing accord should be a wake-up call for a government that made supply a flagship policy.
“Two years into the housing accord, Labor is nowhere near where it promised to be, and NSW first home buyers and families are paying the price,” Rath said.
“Last year’s budget papers included a graph tracking housing completions. This year, it has conveniently disappeared. You don’t delete the scoreboard when you’re winning; you delete it when the numbers expose your failure.”
A spokesman for Treasurer Daniel Mookhey did not explain why the completions forecast had been omitted. “While it contains different charts to the previous budget, the text does suggest the recent strength in commencements is likely to be sustained,” the spokesman said.
Urban Taskforce chief executive Tom Forrest said the latest approvals data painted a concerning picture for NSW, noting the state was approving only 70 per cent of the dwellings required to be completed under the housing accord each month.
“There is always a drop-off between approvals and building completions, particularly when interest rates go up, so more needs to be done,” he said.
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