Nepean byelection LIVE: Liberal Party fight to retain seat as One Nation mounts challenge

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh has said Victorians fed up with Labor should vote for him because he is the only candidate who would have a role in ousting the government.

Marsh is campaigning on a platform centred on rebuilding the Rosebud Hospital, improving local roads and reducing crime, but he is also using the Liberals’ status as the opposition – and the alternative government – to differentiate himself from One Nation.

Currently on leave from his role as mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire, he was preselected by the Liberals in February. Long-time local members of the party were overlooked in favour of Marsh, who had joined the Liberals only a short time before.

“Everyone is starting to see that if they want a change in government and a change in premier, there’s only one candidate here that’s going to help that happen, and that’s electing me today, and then we hopefully give Jess [Wilson] a good run into November, and we can finally change the government,” he said.

One Nation volunteers are out in force in Nepean, as the populist right-wing party prepares for its first test in Victoria since it swelled in popularity late last year.

The party is hinging its hopes on small business owner Darren Hercus, who is pledging to rebuild Rosebud Hospital through a public-private partnership, improve housing supply and crack down on crime.

In a social media post, Hercus said he was offering voters an alternative to the major parties “that have under-delivered for so long”.

When approached by The Age outside a polling booth today, he declined to comment, citing this masthead’s recent coverage.

The Age recently reported that One Nation leadership allegedly advised Hercus to use his personal bank details to accept donations – which would be in breach of Victoria’s electoral laws – and also that he misunderstood how his signature hospital policy would work. One Nation has disputed the reporting.

When your correspondent suggested to Hercus that this byelection could be the party’s first big test in this state, One Nation’s Victorian upper house MP, Rikki-Lee Tyrell, who was elected in 2022 and was campaigning beside Hercus, joked that she must be the “Immaculate Conception”.

One of the touchstone issues in this byelection is the condition of Rosebud Hospital.

First opened in the 1960s, the hospital is the only one in the electorate. Residents say it is outdated and in dire need of refurbishment. It does not offer an emergency department, meaning many people are forced to travel outside Nepean to Frankston Hospital.

Multiple candidates have made public pledges about providing support for Rosebud hospital should they be elected.

Anthony Marsh and the Liberal Party have committed to rebuilding the Hospital, with an investment of $340 million. One Nation candidate Darren Hercus has indicated his support for a public-private partnership, while independent Tracee Hutchison has pledged to push for full funding for a rebuild.

The hospital received $4 million for repairs and refurbishments from the state government in 2025.

Although Sam Groth is absent from the booths today, many of his former Liberal colleagues have made the trip to Nepean to support their candidate, Anthony Marsh.

Among them are party leader Jess Wilson, deputy David Southwick, opposition education spokesperson Brad Rowswell and MP Moira Deeming, who last month gained preselection as the party’s lead candidate for the Western Metropolitan Region in the upper house. The group recently took a “family photo” outside the Rosebud Sea Scouts Hall.

Wilson said her party was not taking the seat, which has been occupied by the Liberals for 36 of the past 40 years, for granted.

“That’s why Anthony’s been down here for weeks on end, and I’ve been with him knocking on doors,” she said. “We’ve been out listening to the community, and we’ve put forward a really positive plan for the electorate.”

Wilson said voters felt neglected by Labor and that this was evidenced by the party’s decision to not stand a candidate.

“That just shows how much they don’t care about the people on the peninsula,” she said. “But me, as a future premier of Victoria, I will make sure that they get the investment down here that they deserve.”

The Age visited Nepean last month – speaking to a number of candidates and residents in Sorrento, Rosebud and Dromana.

The electorate has long been considered affluent, politically dominated by the Liberal Party except for Labor’s unexpected victory in 2018.

Key issues raised by locals included the state of roads in the area and the condition of the Rosebud Hospital, as well as the impact of the US-Iran war on fuel prices and cost-of-living concerns.

Meanwhile, pollsters said Labor’s decision not to run a candidate in the byelection meant the poll would be an important test for the Liberal Party ahead of the statewide vote in November.

You can read the full feature story here.

Eight candidates registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission to take part in today’s Nepean byelection. Importantly, the Labor Party chose not to put anyone forward.

Take a look below.

The seat’s former Liberal MP, Sam Groth, is keeping a low profile on polling day after he quit parliament in March and prompted today’s byelection, just months out from the state election in November.

Groth, 38, is not speaking to the media today, politely declining The Age’s request for a comment. And Liberal sources tell us the former deputy Liberal Leader won’t be seen at polling booths today as he voted early.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson told this masthead that Groth was spending time with his family and would not be assisting at any polling booths – while also confirming that he had cast his vote for his former party.

Groth and his wife, Brittany, are seemingly undergoing a life reset since he quit politics and are both concentrating on their twin five-year-old sons. Brittany Groth left her marketing role at Sorrento’s Continental Hotel in March. She had been head of brand.

Voting centres around the Nepean electorate opened at 8am and will close at 6pm.

Our photographer Wayne Taylor was on the ground in Rosebud and Dromana this morning, where many of the major candidates were in attendance. Take a look below.

The electoral district of Nepean encompasses the southern end of the Mornington Peninsula, from Portsea to Dromana and across to Flinders. It is traditionally considered a safe Liberal seat.

Take a look at the map and voting history below.

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of today’s Nepean byelection. My name is Gemma Grant, and I will be helming our live blog this afternoon. Our reporter Angus Delaney is on the ground and you’ll also be hearing from state political reporter Kieran Rooney.

The stage is set for an interesting race. Jess Wilson’s new-look Liberal Party will be hoping that its candidate, Anthony Marsh, can safely retain this seat on the southern Mornington Peninsula for the party. But contenders like One Nation’s Darren Marsh and community independent Tracee Hutchison will be looking to disrupt the status quo.

Stay with us as the day progresses and the results begin to roll in, as we bring you all the major developments.