Neale, Butters and Voss: How the defining decisions of season 2026 may unfold

4 weeks ago 26

“Events dear boy, events.” – Ex-British prime minister Harold Macmillan (1957-1963), purportedly when asked what his government should be concerned about.

The Lachie Neale drama isn’t in the same post code as the Profumo affair – a sexual scandal involving one of Harold Macmillan’s ministers – that precipitated the end of Macmillan’s time in Downing Street. But it is still an unwelcome “event” that the reigning premiers have had to navigate.

Lachie Neale as he spoke to the media about his decision to step down from the Lions co-captaincy.

To date, the handling of Neale’s marital travails by Chris Fagan and the Lions has been smart. Neale fronted the media, quit the captaincy and took ownership of a private matter that had crept into the public domain.

Fagan has been the Lions’ primary voice on Neale, and while he’s maintained this is a private matter for Neale and his estranged wife Jules, the coach has been honest in acknowledging that he didn’t know if the dual Brownlow medallist would remain at the club after 2026.

Fagan says he was not informed of the Neale break-up until shortly before Christmas. Wisely, the Lions have been proactive in mitigating the fallout by moving quickly, rather than allowing the soap opera to gather unstoppable momentum, like a tabloid boulder hurtling downhill, via social media - and especially through the Instagram accounts of Jules Neale and others.

What impact will Neale’s issues have on team performance? Based on personnel the Lions have - and incoming/young talent assembled - they should make the top three, irrespective of how he performs and any distraction. They reached the grand final without him last year.

Neale’s personal crisis was unforeseen – an iceberg that suddenly loomed.

In contrast, the futures of Zak Butters and Michael Voss will be on the radar early in this forthcoming AFL season. Their clubs, Port Adelaide and Carlton, should already have game plans to deal with the speculation about whether Butters and Voss will be at their clubs beyond 2026.

Port’s position is easier, since the decision belongs to Butters, who is an unrestricted free agent. Port has had a gargantuan long-term offer on the table since last season. They have a new coach and it is logical to wonder if Butters, one of the game’s top half dozen midfielders, is staying the course following regime change from Ken Hinkley to Josh Carr.

The Butters decision can be split into three parts.

The first question is whether he stays or goes. Second is the champion’s choice of destination should he head home to Victoria.

Third is how he finds passage from Port to whichever club he nominates – since Butters is a restricted free agent, Port has the right to match any offer. I would bet that unless they hold a top three pick in the national draft (by finishing near bottom), they will force a trade for multiple first rounders.

Increasingly, AFL clubs are more sanguine about the prospect of losing a star to free agency, or even the loss of players coming out of contract. They will dig their heels in, however, when the (untarnished) gun player has a contract, as per Zach Merrett, Charlie Curnow and Christian Petracca, and demand a premium.

Michael Voss, Zak Butters and Lachie Neale.

The speculation from within clubland is that the Western Bulldogs and Geelong are at the front of the queue for Butters should he choose to depart. This is based on the geography of his home town Bacchus Marsh where his family resides.

But who, besides his management and family, really knows what Butters will choose? All 10 Victorian clubs will be keen, and some offers will reach unprecedented levels of reckless – probably exceeding Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s new benchmark, over a far longer term.

Carlton, meanwhile, are well-versed in assessing Voss’s position and managing the sound and fury around him. In both seasons 2023 and 2025, the club hierarchy made public statements affirming that Voss would be retained, his contract honoured.

This time, Voss is out of contract at season’s end, when he will have completed a fifth year in one of football’s historically most parlous jobs. Carlton’s relatively new chief executive Graham Wright and president Rob Priestley have emphasised the need for measured stability to this point. Priestley, in particular, has been keen to break from Carlton’s rapacious past.

Carlton’s brutal history of coach culling - and expensive payouts – probably worked in Voss’s favour in 2025, when the Blues flunked the finals exam, falling to 11th.

But the Blues will not be encumbered by ghosts of past sackings in 2026. The twist this year is the re-shaping of Carlton’s playing list following the exits of Curnow (trade), Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni to free agency and Sam Docherty (retired).

The Blues have replaced Curnow, in effect, with Ben Ainsworth (Gold Coast) and Will Hayward (Sydney) in a more varied forward line that will have Harry McKay as the primary target.

In theory, Voss’s supporters might assert that he’s lost an A-plus key forward, a prospective A grade ruckman and a handy key defender, ergo the Blues are in a medium-term list renovation.

It follows that, as they replenish via prized father sons Harry Dean and (from 2027) Cody Walker, they should not be expected to compete with the top half dozen.

Harry Dean is presented his Carlton jumper by father Peter Dean.

The replacement of the final eight with the top ten means 13 or 14 teams can aspire to play “finals” even if the tenth team proves utterly mediocre. Carlton can aspire to the top 10 this year, but they don’t have the cattle to contend.

The ladder matters, of course, but Voss should and likely will be judged on whether he’s right coach to steer the Blues to the summit over the subsequent three years.

As yet unknowable sudden events – this year’s answer to Merrett, Petracca and Izak Rankine – may well prove more consequential to 2026 than the futures of Neale, Butters and Voss.

Five weeks from the first ball-up, however, those three individual storylines shape as the main courses on the media menu.

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