Midway through MasterChef, how have my early predictions panned out?

June 24, 2026 — 5:00am

So here we are, just past the halfway mark of MasterChef 2026, with the competition heating up like a hibachi. Though some stories have played out much as expected, some have proven themselves to be quite otherwise.

It is worth revisiting the predictions we made at the beginning of the season, to see just how closely events have followed the prognostication.

Sadly, our first nominated contender, Lydia, has fallen by the wayside. Her background was perfect, her personality made her a viewer favourite and her vast home cooking experience seemed so likely to help her to the finish line, but Lydia couldn’t maintain consistency when it counted and, much to the grief of the MasterChef community, she said goodbye.

Likewise with Olaolu, who really did seem to have the calm demeanour and breadth of knowledge – not to mention the telly-friendly backstory – to give the competition a real shake.

Safe to say that when both Lydia and Olaolu fell, a bit of a shock went through the kitchen, as they had both been looking pretty comfortable. But form is a fickle thing, especially so when it involves ovens.

Interestingly, those are the only two frontrunners named in that previous article who have so far dipped out. The other contenders are still present, although it is fair to say that perceptions haven’t necessarily stayed the same, and not all of them look as strong as they did, while some underdogs have risen to assume the status of major threats.

Take Casper. At the start of the series, he made no great impression, apparently making up the numbers. But once things got going, he demonstrated some serious culinary skills and very quickly became a leading light. With fine dining sensibilities, a peerless ability to remain cool, calm and collected under pressure, and the killer instincts of a Bond villain, Casper’s initial anonymity has been well and truly left behind, and he could be the favourite at this stage. A recent wobble involving saffron was worrying, but this guy is the goods.

The same could be said about Annabel, who may have been unfairly discounted in initial stocktaking due to that perpetual smile and a sort of “I’m just happy to be here” demeanour. Annabel’s rise has been a slow burn, but even though her bench from time to time seems to be in the grip of chaos, she has an uncanny ability to come through with sensational dishes even after seeming to struggle. Annabel often makes reference to her nursing career and how it has stood her in good stead in terms of handling pressure. So far, it’s working.

What of the others? Well, Pat, the Ordinary Aussie Bloke from central casting, is doing much as expected, travelling along nicely and often under the radar.

Even getting his ice-cream into Coles hasn’t affected his quiet, humble approach – Pat doesn’t often stand out but is the type who could easily snatch the title from under the noses of flashier competitors.

While Pat got his ice-cream into stores, Hannah got her pie on shelves, and her journey has been a fascinating one. While named as a contender originally, the WA mum seemed to be stuttering and stumbling a little early on, and it looked like our prediction had been way off. But with that cheeseburger pie and many other exquisite judgments, Hannah has steadied her ship and is clearly growing in confidence. We may end up vindicated after all.

Speaking of stumbling, Luke is still there, so one could say that our assessment of him as a frontrunner was a good one, but a succession of narrow escapes and kitchen catastrophes casts doubt on this.

Luke’s confidence and willingness to take risks seemed like it could be a strength, but on several occasions, it has brought him to the brink of elimination, and you wonder just how many more times he can escape by the seat of his pants.

Our other major nominated contender was Emily, who has slipped into the background of late but is managing to perform the most important task of all: not making mistakes.

Elsewhere, our naming of the dark horses was pretty spot-on. Petro, who looked for all the world like a sacrificial lamb in early weeks, is going from strength to strength and starting to take on the look of a champion.

Meanwhile, Grace, the Hitchcock Blonde of Kitchen HQ, continues to operate with icy efficiency, taking down rivals like a shark.

Watch her closely: she is absolutely deadly, and if she goes home with the trophy at the end, nobody would be surprised.