‘It’s going to stretch budgets’: The affordability paradox for Brisbane’s growth corridor schools

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It’s a good thing Danielle Van Veen’s daughter is settling in well at her local high school south of Brisbane – because it’s the only public option within 20 kilometres of her home.

She said her child is well-supported at Logan’s Flagstone State Community College, but the lack of schooling options is typical of the high-growth corridors in outer south-east Queensland suburbs where critical infrastructure has struggled to keep up with surging populations.

“[We] wouldn’t have much other choice,” Van Veen said at the prospect of her daughter not settling in.

Flagstone local Danielle Van Veen with her three children.

“There’s a lot of primary schools but not a lot of high school options out here – we’ve got Flagstone Community College but not a lot until Park Ridge, and then Beaudesert,” she said.

“We seem to be increasing the primary schools [here], but not the high schools.”

Van Veen’s community falls in one of the state government’s three high-growth Priority Development Areas (PDAs) in the Logan and Ipswich regions, which are together expected to house about 319,000 people by 2050.

The Education Department predicted these PDAs – at Yarrabilba, Greater Flagstone, and Ripley Valley – would need more than 50 new schools within that 25-year-window. This included 38 primary schools and 16 high schools.

Growth is already booming, with department modelling predicting enrolment demand for all year levels would grow by about 2 per cent – or roughly 500 students – every year for the next fifteen years. This compares to statewide growth of 0.7 per cent in 2024.

Suburban Futures director Ross Elliott, an urban development and infrastructure expert, said growth in south-east Queensland was generally considered a problem for the housing market, but schools and community infrastructure was also a major concern.

“Whether it’s government schools or non-government schools, everyone is scratching their heads at the moment going, ‘right, how are we going to accommodate this rising demand’,” Elliott said.

Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek at the site of a new school beginning construction in Logan Reserve.

Young families are drawn to PDAs where new-build and first home buyer incentives improve housing affordability, he said.

“They’re looking for a school for the kids to go to, in fact, they probably started looking for that before they moved into the house,” the expert said.

Van Veen said local families with preschool-aged children were already scoping out high schools.

“They’re looking at these higher costs … [because] if they don’t want to go to Flagstone they’re going to have to look at private schools,” she said.

She said new schools planned for adjacent suburbs, like Logan Reserve, were well out of catchment for the Flagstone community.

Flagstone Community State College is about a five-minute drive down the road, and her neighbourhood sits next to a new P-12 Catholic school, St Bonaventure’s College, which is expected to open for several year levels next year.

But smaller private schools have said demand in the region could price them out of traditional greenfield sites.

Elliott said regular-sized schools in greenfield areas consisting of two or three level buildings and a playing field would cost about $115 million.

“Take $115 million and multiply that by the number that the Education Department gave, and you start to realise … it’s going to stretch budgets in ways that I’m not sure we quite appreciate,” he said.

The department said state school students still made up about two-thirds of Queensland’s cohort – equating to about 30 schools across the three PDAs.

In its 2024 annual report, the department said it had acquired eight land parcels, including one in Greater Flagstone.

The department said it also maintained a small stock of temporary buildings to keep up with sudden enrolment spikes, but Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek said the state was committed to delivering permanent school infrastructure.

As school returns this week, he announced a $31 million package for new classrooms and specialist learning spaces in Ipswich’s Claremont Special School and Bremer State High School – which overlaps with the Ripley Valley PDA.

“We want to ensure all students are supported to reach their potential,” Langbroek said.

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