Israel has lost the support of the American people. It’s danger time for Netanyahu

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Donald Trump appears to have gained the upper hand in his relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at least for the time being. The US president shocked the Israeli leader last week by undercutting his main goals of extinguishing Hamas and securing Gaza for Israel. But Netanyahu is a master political tactician and cannot be expected to walk away from those ambitions.

Trump’s 20-point peace plan and Netanyahu’s public embrace of it has come against the backdrop of unprecedented global condemnation and isolation of Israel over the Gaza operations and, more importantly, a dramatic decline in Americans’ support for Israel. According to a New York Times and Siena University poll, more Americans side with Palestinians over Israelis for the first time since the poll began in 1998, and most American voters now oppose sending more economic and military aid to Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Donald Trump at the White House on September 29.

In the past week, a Washington Post poll of America’s Jewry found more disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza than support them, and 68 per cent had a negative view of Netanyahu’s leadership. Six in 10 believe Israel has committed war crimes and four in 10 believe Israel is guilty of genocide.

Most alarming for Trump is the growing criticism of Netanyahu and his extremist ruling coalition from many prominent MAGA loyalists. They have questioned the value of America’s costly strategic partnership with Israel, the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in US politics, and Israel’s intelligence and military infiltration of the American administration.

MAGA ideologue Steve Bannon, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and media personality Tucker Carlson have voiced serious concerns about the Trump administration’s deep and unwavering commitment to Israel. They have variously called for an overhaul of US-Iran relations. Bannon has disparaged Israel as America’s “protectorate”, Greene wants to see an end of American aid to Israel and Carlson has asked why a country of 9 million people (Israel) has so much influence on a country of 350 million citizens (the US).

Discontent in Trump’s MAGA power base has shaken the president more than any other factors. It has prompted Trump to maximise pressure on Netanyahu to accept his 20-point peace plan as a “victory” for him and Israel, though arguably at the cost of not allowing the Israeli leader to end the Gaza war entirely on his terms. To pull him into line, Trump has reprimanded Netanyahu several times in recent months.

He publicly rebuked Netanyahu for trying to scuttle the president’s call for a ceasefire in the war with Iran last June and dressed him down again over his attack targeting Hamas leaders in the oil-rich emirate of Qatar, America’s close ally, in early September. He subsequently made Netanyahu apologise to the emirate’s prime minister in a phone call from the White House.

Trump once more upstaged Netanyahu when he ordered him to stop bombing Gaza immediately when Hamas announced its conditional acceptance of the president’s peace plan last week, involving the release of all hostages within 72 hours once a ceasefire had come into effect. He said that Hamas wanted peace, and criticised Netanyahu for having gone too far in Gaza and losing “a lot of support” – something his peace plan will bring back.

However, Netanyahu has not laid down the hatchet. He hasn’t halted the Israel Defence Forces campaign in Gaza, causing more displacement and the loss of civilian lives, has remained firm in his demand for the total destruction of Hamas and wants Israel to be in charge of Gaza’s security. These are contentious issues for Hamas. It wants the governance of Gaza to be handed over to a Palestinian body made up of technocrats and for the IDF to withdraw from all of Gaza, with Hamas retaining its arms until these objectives are achieved.

Trump has indicated a ceasefire and release of the hostages as priorities, but he appears to have a willingness to let other points of his plan be negotiated. Netanyahu’s intransigence has frustrated the president, who reportedly told him to stop being “so f---ing negative”. Yet, Trump knows that Netanyahu is not for turning. He has accompanied his admonishment with a warning to Hamas to move fast in accepting his plan; otherwise, he will let Israel obliterate it.

Negotiations between Israel and Hamas to implement Trump’s plan have begun in Cairo under Qatari, Egyptian and American mediation. The outcome is most likely to be shaped by whether Trump will prevail over Netanyahu or vice versa. There is a lot at stake for both sides.

For Trump, it is to maintain his MAGA power base and keep alive his chances of a Nobel Peace Prize. For Netanyahu, it is to keep on board the extremists in his coalition cabinet, and to meet the demands of the Israeli public for a ceasefire with an urgent release of the hostages. He also wants to retain power and avoid facing a trial and potential imprisonment on longstanding charges of fraud and loss of public trust. Given the complexity of the situation, Trump’s plan hangs in the balance.

Amin Saikal is professor emeritus of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at ANU, adjunct professor of social sciences at the University of Western Australia, and a Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University.