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The Liberal National party room is filled with loyal followers of David Crisafulli who are aware they owe their seats on government benches to the Queensland premier after a decade in the wilderness.
But what is his leadership style? What are the key relationships that influence policy? Who are the rising stars? And who would emerge as leadership contenders if the popular premier were to suddenly resign?
This masthead has spoken to a wide range of insiders over many months, both within the party room and out, to form a comprehensive understanding of the machinations inside the highest-ranking conservative government in the country.
Unlike Labor and the Coalition’s federal team, which both have clearly defined factions that dictate how laws are crafted and leadership disputes are settled, the Queensland LNP has no such organised groupings, with ad hoc alliances formed through MPs drawn to particular characters or repulsed by others and their ideologies.
Crisafulli is affable and, unlike some other state leaders, gives his ministers clear air to shine in their specific portfolios.
But underneath his knockabout nature is a disciplined and heavily curated strategist who works closely with his tight inner circle – chief of staff Richard Ferrett and deputy chief of staff and communications director Rob Morrison.
Ferrett and Crisafulli have a long working relationship, dating back to his first stint in parliament in 2012, while Morrison joined when the now-premier became opposition leader in 2020.
Both were instrumental in carefully plotting the path to government and control the strategic agenda with the premier, while the vast array of former television reporters-turned-spinners are left to manage day-to-day communications.
Within cabinet, this masthead was told there was internal friction last year between Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie and Treasurer and Energy Minister David Janetzki, back when the latter was rolling out the state’s energy roadmap.
Through that plan, Janetzki balanced extending coal power while not spooking investment in renewable energy. Many in the party and industry noted how this delicate policy was routinely undermined by Bleijie’s retreat from clean energy projects.
Tensions between the two have settled, but the deputy remains a commanding figure in the party. This masthead was told that when the cabinet is unsure which way a decision will land, it usually lands on the side of Bleijie due to his influence on debate.
However, insiders stress that taunts from the Labor Opposition that Bleijie runs the state are exaggerated and Crisafulli’s position is undoubted.
One party figure with knowledge of internal discussions but not authorised to speak publicly said Crisafulli is “happy to give people enough rope, but the risk is always when you run out of rope, he is pretty ruthless”.
In an interview with this masthead last year, Crisafulli said of Bleijie that he likes “a deputy that’s strong”.
Beyond the deputy – who is a more conservative figure from the right of the party compared to the moderate premier – Crisafulli trusts and relies on Janetzki’s deep understanding of complex policy.
Housing Minister Sam O’Connor is another strong performer who has the premier’s ear, along with Transport Minister Brent Mickelberg, who, despite his recent struggles with rail industrial relations disputes, remains a respected policy thinker.
Crisafulli elevated Mickelberg to the shadow cabinet in 2020, where he performed strongly and impressed the premier and the broader parliamentary team.
The looming AFP-induced reshuffle
A gradual resignation is emerging within LNP circles that the drawn-out federal police investigation into stood-down minister Tim Mander’s electoral enrolment will trigger a cabinet reshuffle.
This masthead confirmed there had been no update into the AFP probe, which was launched last month and threatens to drag on.
The demotion of Mander would enable Crisafulli to embark on a broader cabinet refresh with new talent two years before the 2028 election.
It would also allow the party to iron out some issues with the machinery of government, particularly the unwieldy department of treasury, which absorbed energy.
If the departments were to be split, insiders say it would not be a demotion for Janetzki but more an acknowledgment that the portfolios don’t function smoothly together due to the relevance and enormity of each. The former banker would keep treasury, but who takes energy could become a headache for the premier.
Lumping it with Resources Minister Dale Last, an “I’ll sign, you drill” advocate, could further spook renewable investment, according to party insiders, while assigning a moderate figure such as O’Connor may agitate the conservative wing. Mickelberg was suggested as a safe option capable of handling the dense policy.
Assistant Minister Sean Dillon is widely regarded as the first to be promoted into cabinet, as reported by this masthead in February. A well-placed government source described Dillon as an unpretentious statesman who would be an ideal party deputy under the former Liberal-Nationals coalition structure.
Behind Dillon, Redlands MP Rebecca Young is also heavily favoured for a ministerial role, followed by Cairns-based Bree James and former Morrison government assistant minister Amanda Stoker. Dillon, Young and James have become a tight trio in parliament, despite being from different corners of the state.
It is less clear who would make way for the rising stars, besides the assumed exit of Mander.
Rumours have been rife that Finance Minister Ros Bates and Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek may end, or be encouraged to end, their long parliamentary careers to make way for fresh talent.
If not Crisafulli, then who?
Crisafulli currently has a strong grip on the leadership, with persistently strong personal polling and a declared desire to lead a multi-term government.
But if there were to be an unforeseen resignation, party figures suggest the race would come down to two – Bleijie and Attorney-General Deb Frecklington.
Bleijie is a big character who commands respect from a loyal following on the right flank of the party room, but he has just as many detractors, and insiders aren’t convinced he’d have the numbers to ascend to premier.
Frecklington is a somewhat left-field option after being comfortably defeated as opposition leader by Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2020. She kept a low profile in the early stages of the previous parliamentary term before being promoted to shadow energy spokeswoman.
No one seemed more surprised than Frecklington when Crisafulli picked her to be attorney-general, but the former solicitor has thrived in the role. She is well liked in the party room and has managed the passage of key party laws and messaging on crime.
“She’s the one whose stocks have risen the most from being in government,” an insider said.
“Everyone thinks she’s grown her stature and she’s become a bit of a stateswoman as AG.”
Crisafulli loyalists
With only a small group of MPs whose parliamentary careers predate the Liberal and National amalgamation in 2008, the Queensland party room is less defined by traditional factions than interstate and federal contemporaries.
Following discussions with a wide range of party figures, this masthead has charted a unique grouping structure that pieces together the mixed bag of characters within the party room.
The largest grouping is revealing of Crisafulli’s command of the party. These MPs are a mix of city and bush, and vary from moderate, progressive and conservative.
But they were described to this masthead as pragmatic loyalists committed to the premier’s rejection of ideological pursuits in favour of a narrow focus on kitchen-table matters. In other words, they know this plan wins elections, and they’re content to follow the leader.
Other than Crisafulli, the key members of this group are O’Connor, Janetzki and Mickelberg – an unlikely but close friendship trio. Frecklington adds extra gravitas as an affable performer from the bush, while rising stars Young and James provide continuity.
Crisafulli’s right-wing supporters
As the name suggests, this group of four are also loyal to Crisafulli but are less sold on the moderate style and are drawn to Bleijie’s unabashed conservatism.
Veteran MP Bates is close to the deputy premier.
‘Happy to be here’ class of 2024
Another extension of the structural support for Crisafulli is the less political pool of MPs who won seats in LNP’s wipeout election victory in 2024.
These include Townsville MP Adam Baillie who, despite being a North Queenslander in a conservative party, is supportive of renewable energy.
Others include anti-youth crime advocate Russell Field, former police officer Janelle Poole, and Ariana Doolan, who was just 22 when she won the Sunshine Coast seat of Pumicestone.
Wayde Chiesa joined parliament in a 2025 byelection, but as an old friend of Crisafulli, he certainly qualifies as “happy to be here”.
Old-school Nats
This group of bush MPs would be right at home with the former state division of the National Party.
These include Last, widely respected parliamentary Speaker Pat Weir, second-generation MP Tony Perrett, and Local Government Minister Ann Leahy.
Dillon, a fourth-generation cattle farmer from Alpha, west of Rockhampton, presents as a bush figure and has a strong affiliation with the National Party through his father, but is pragmatic on policies such as renewable energy.
Old Guard
One party insider, perhaps harshly, told this masthead this group could also be titled the “departure lounge” due to the nature of their veteran status.
Rejuvenation of the party will likely come from a scattering of this group, making way for new talent at the 2028 election, but it also includes strong parliamentary performers such as Health Minister Tim Nicholls.
Scenic Rim MP Jon Krause is well-educated and intelligent but lost some skin during the 2024 election when he was recorded at a church forum speaking of his desire to make “significant amendments” to abortion laws.
Far-right
Unlike the other far-right collection alongside Bleijie, this assortment of MPs are noted for their even more conservative beliefs, such as Donna Kirkland – who was pressed during the election on her own views on abortion – as well as Kerri-Anne Dooley.
Stoker, a former Sky News host, has been a prominent figure who has regularly contributed to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).
But colleagues have privately applauded her efforts to toe the party line and resist the Christian lobby’s pressure to force her to act on abortion laws.
Many believe Stoker will be rewarded for her loyalty with a spot in cabinet.
Mackay MP Nigel Dalton is included in this group but could easily be assigned his own solo group, such are his dogged and religious views on abortion.
In February, he was thrust into the spotlight when he crossed the floor to defy Crisafulli on a vote related to the laws, reigniting the Opposition’s bruising attack lines.
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