‘Independent’ voters, 13 candidates and the spectre of Ward: The battle for Kiama comes down to this

19 hours ago 3

As Premier Chris Minns once put it, the voters of Kiama are “independently minded”. They returned Gareth Ward to parliament as an independent even while he faced sexual assault charges.

On Saturday, with their former MP in jail as a convicted rapist, voters will choose between 13 candidates to replace him.

Labor candidate for Kiama Katelin McInerney and Premier Chris Minns visit Bomaderry High School on Friday.

Labor candidate Katelin McInerney is going into Saturday’s vote as the favourite, but given the number of candidates and NSW’s optional preferential voting system, Minns won’t show any signs of confidence.

A Liberal loss would also increase the pressure on Mark Speakman’s leadership.

“We’re taking nothing for granted,” Minns said. “My sense is that it’s going to be a close election, every bit of information that I’ve got, and my being on the ground here talking to voters, is that they’re weighing up their minds.”

A government byelection victory would be a rare achievement. The last time a NSW government wrestled a seat it didn’t hold was in 1996, when Labor’s Harry Woods beat the National Geoff Knight in Clarence Valley.

If Liberal candidate Serena Copley loses on Saturday, leader Mark Speakman may be in the firing line.

Kiama is a changing place with wealthy sea-changers on the coast and tree-changers in Kangaroo Valley. According to Domain, the median house price in Kiama has risen 77 per cent in the past five years.

While the result of the byelection will have ramifications in the halls of Macquarie Street, several candidates said the voters were more concerned with housing affordability, an unreliable train service and access to health services.

With a state election 18 months away, the Liberals are increasingly jittery about their chances of toppling the Minns Labor government.

The May federal election result rattled them and a July Resolve poll compounded jitters among MPs. For the first time in 18 months, Labor was ahead in the polls, putting Speakman’s leadership in the firing line.

Several Liberal sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, were bracing for a terrible result on Saturday.

MPs’ doubts had been compounded after door-knocking in the Kiama electorate over the past few weeks. One Liberal source said there were two kinds of voters: those who blamed the party for being associated with Ward, and those who blamed them for expelling him.

Two MPs suggested the Liberals gaining less than 30 per cent of the primary vote would almost certainly be a death knell for Speakman.

“Who in their right mind wants to be NSW opposition leader right now?” a Liberal source asked.

Speakman said he wasn’t distracted by the “mischief-makers” in his own party.

“We are the underdogs, but this election isn’t about me, this is not about the Liberal Party, tomorrow is about fighting for Kiama,” he said.

A big question going into election day is where will the loyal Ward supporters take their votes? Labor held the seat after its creation in 1981, until Ward scooped it for the Liberals in 2011, and it was his personal popularity that helped him keep the seat blue until his downfall.

According to Labor’s McInerney and Liberal candidate Serena Copley, the voters of Kiama are ready to move on from the spectre of Ward.

Teal-style independent Kate Dezarnaulds said the “chaos and disarray” of the Liberal Party made the race tougher to call, but she pitched to voters that aside from his personal failings, she would emulate Ward’s commitment to the community and his availability to hear local concerns.

“Even though Gareth and I certainly had some different views on things, there are many qualities that I have which are familiar to people that were fans of Gareth Ward,” she said.

She said if she won the seat on preferences, she would be “very sorry” if that meant an end to Speakman’s leadership.

With so many candidates and a potentially broad spread of preferences, the result may not be known on Saturday night.