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How did we get here?
After a strong start in winter, the Wallabies have fallen into a slump, and with one game left on the spring tour, against France in Paris, are now on the cusp of their first Europe trip without a win since 1958.
Another loss would leave the Wallabies with just five wins from 15 Tests this year, a 33 per cent win rate. That would not be the worst on record – disturbingly, 2018 (31%), 2020 (17%) and 2023 (22%) were all lower. But there is an ignominious place in history the 2025 team could still claim: it would be the first time the Wallabies have lost 10 Tests in a calendar year.
It would be a brutal – and slightly baffling – end to a year in which the Wallabies also made history and headlines with outstanding performances. They defeated world No.1 South Africa in Johannesburg for the first time since 1963, downed the British and Irish Lions in Sydney at the end of a tightly contested series, and swept home with a bold win-or-bust call to beat the Pumas after the siren in Townsville.
But after a strong opening, the latter part of the year has delivered a discernible slide. The Wallabies won four of their opening seven matches, and have won just one from seven since.
In a season of two halves – which is more cleanly bracketed as the first eight Tests (against Fiji, the Lions, South Africa and Argentina) and the next six (New Zealand, Japan, England, Italy, Ireland) – the Wallabies’ slide can be tracked through a handful of data points.
The Wallabies have struggled after a promising start to 2025.Credit: Getty Images
So, in the interests of answering our opening question – “How did we get here?” – let’s take a look at some of those areas.
The win percentage and points tallies paint a basic but clear picture of the Wallabies’ demise. From scoring an average of almost 26 points in the opening eight Tests, they’ve only posted 17 points a game since.
The Wallabies haven’t scored more than 19 points in a Test since racking up 24 against New Zealand in Auckland in the opening Bledisloe Cup clash.
The points conceded has also blown out by an average of four a game, leaving an average losing margin of 10 points a game. With a struggling attack, tries have dried up, falling from 3.6 a Test to 1.7, and they’re also conceding an average of one more per Test.
Most tellingly, the Wallabies’ ability to score points in the second half has drastically fallen away.
Though far from ideal, Australia had developed a habit of giving up a big deficit in the first halves of many of their Tests earlier in the year, but then fought back late to either win or lose narrowly.
But that second-half capacity has almost evaporated. From an average of more than 15 second-half points in the opening eight Tests, the Wallabies have averaged less than five points in the Bledisloe Cup and on the spring tour. They didn’t score a single point in the second half against England.
By contrast, their rivals have run up 98 second-half points, at an averaged 16 a Test.
Injuries and the unavailability of players have been factors, of course, with the Wallabies’ depth – and bench strength – being eroded with key men being lost throughout the year.
Star fullback Tom Wright was a big loss, and so too Tate McDermott. Jake Gordon’s injury was covered by Nic White until the veteran No.9 finally retired for good. Rob Valetini struggled with injury throughout the year.
The Wallabies cycled through multiple five-eighths, too, with Noah Lolesio lost early and Tom Lynagh also in and out of the squad. James O’Connor, Tane Edmed and Carter Gordon were also used.
But Joe Schmidt’s tendency to routinely make changes also raised eyebrows. The Wallabies used the same 23-man squad just once all year – for the second and third Lions Tests.
Like second-half points, Australia’s discipline was also an issue: they started well in that area before falling away.
Having been a major problem in previous years, where penalty counts were stubbornly stuck above 10 a game in most Tests, the Australians appeared to have turned a corner in the three-Test Lions series. They conceded less than 10 penalties in two games, and then in South Africa, the Wallabies gave up only four and six penalties. In the opening eight Tests, the Wallabies averaged 8.5 penalties a game.
But in the six Tests since, that has grown to 11.5 a game, and double-figure counts in four of six games.
Most crucially, perhaps, the Wallabies have had players sent from the field in the past six Tests. After not attracting a yellow card in their first seven Tests (again a far cry from recent years where one per Test was standard), six yellow cards have then come in the next seven Tests.
The Wallabies have also started making more mistakes in their past six Test matches – either making it more difficult to win, or putting nails in coffins.
When it comes to unforced errors – which is a mistake not brought on by the opposition – the Wallabies were making an average of 4.7 in the opening eight Tests. That has risen to 6.6 a Test since the Wallabies headed to Eden Park hopeful of breaking the Bledisloe Cup drought.
One of the clear areas Australia have struggled in for much of the year, but particularly on the spring tour, is in the aerial game.
Though an increasingly common part of top-flight rugby, the attack-minded Wallabies have never been a world-leading team when it comes to contestable kicks; be it defusing them or successfully deploying them.
But they hadn’t been known as one of the world’s worst, either. Until this year, that is.
The Wallabies have struggled so much to “retain” contestable kicks – the stat covering the ability to either catch a high ball, clean up a spilled catch or force an error from a rival – they’re ranked second-last of the 10 Six Nations-Rugby Championships teams in 2025. Surprisingly, the All Blacks have the worst retention rate.
But the problem is now so acute for the Wallabies that teams are building game plans around contestable kicking.
England kicked with good effect in downing the Wallabies at Twickenham, scoring two of four tries from high balls, while Ireland’s win was based on attacking Australia from the air.
The Wallabies’ aerial struggle is like a batsman who is known to dislike short-pitched bowling, and thus gets bounced almost every over. So perception plays a big part, and it’ll only change if the Wallabies turn off the retention tap for rivals.
The difference can be seen in comparing the Wallabies’ first Test against the Lions and their loss to Ireland. In both games, their rivals sent up 15 contestable kicks. The Lions only managed to retain six of them, and thus dialled back the contestable kick tally to just three in the second Test. But the Irish remarkably retained all 15.
No prizes for guessing what France will do in Paris on Sunday morning.
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