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Clare Taheri intended to take six months off for the birth of her daughter before returning to work and study as psychologist.
But when Taheri set out with newborn daughter Persephone to tour childcare facilities near their Elsternwick home, things did not go as she had hoped.
“We were pretty underwhelmed with the options that were locally available,” she said. “There were just instances where we thought, ‘that’s clearly not safe’.”
Allegations of horrific child sexual abuse inside childcare centres also heightened Taheri’s unease.
Months before the birth of her son, Theodore, childcare worker Joshua Brown was arrested and charged, accused of offences that have shaken confidence in the sector and prompted calls for stronger safeguards.
Taheri decided to stop work to look after both children at home.
“There was nothing that really made us sufficiently comfortable to trust our precious children into this system,” she said.
The fallout from the crimes Brown is accused of at multiple G8 and Affinity Education centres is seen by some providers as one reason families are turning their backs on two of the country’s biggest providers.
G8 shares have plummeted, and at the latest shareholders meeting in April, it was reported that occupancy was down nearly 8 per cent on the year prior.
“As chair, I can say unequivocally that 2025 was one of the most challenging and defining years in G8 Education’s history, and indeed across the entire early childhood education and care sector,” company secretary Josie King told investors.
A spokesperson for G8 said occupancy was lower in 2026 compared to the two years prior across the early childhood education sector.
In addition to “confidence being impacted”, attendance was down due to “sustained affordability pressures”, falling birth rates and increased supply, they said.
“The early childhood education and care sector is experiencing unprecedented change and uncertainty.”
Sector-wide, occupancy at centre-based childcare was down 3.6 per cent in the final quarter of last year in Australia, and 4.2 per cent in Victoria, compared to 2024.
Goodstart Early Learning, one of the largest not-for-profits, has had a small drop in attendance of babies and toddlers under two.
“While our attendances are softer than we would like, generally occupancy is holding up well despite significant falls being reported in parts of our sector,” a spokesperson said.
Despite the optimism, Goodstart is among providers advocating for the creation of a national body to help address systemic issues like supply and quality.
“It’s clear that stricter oversight is required to help ensure high-quality centres are built and operate in the right numbers in the right places,” the spokesperson said.
“Only a national body like an Early Childhood Education and Care Commission can make this happen.”
Jane Austen from early education advocacy group, The Front Project, is also supportive of a national Early Education and Care Commission, saying co-ordinated help would improve the sector and outcomes for children.
But Austen said parents should take confidence from the many high-quality centres across Australia, where children formed strong relationships with educators and benefited from structured learning.
“Evidence tells us that children’s brains grow in high quality, with back and forth interactions with adults that they trust,” she said.
“This is already happening with educators in many wonderful, high-quality early childhood education and care centres, helping to set up children to thrive when they get to school and though out their life.
“Earning a living to provide for your family is one of the most important things parents can do for their child, and they should never feel guilty for that.”
In Victoria in 2024-2025, there were 223 serious incidents per 100 day care centres and just 45 per 100 in family day care. Used by about 5 per cent of Australian families, the alternative care model typically involves small groups of children being cared for in the educator’s home.
Family Day Care Australia chief executive officer Andrew Paterson said the sector had avoided the drop in inquiries experienced elsewhere. However, family day care is plagued by a different concern.
“There’s currently a shortfall of about 3500 family day care educators just to meet existing demand,” he said. “We have a supply problem, not a demand problem.”
Paterson said families reported feeling confident in the home-based care model due because of the relationship they developed with the educator. “It’s a consistent long-term relationship that builds trust.”
The sector has pointed to declining birth rates and an oversupply of centres in some areas as contributing to lower enrolments. A recent HILDA survey found grandparents were stepping into carer roles; 44 per cent who had looked after a child were doing so weekly.
While family day care appeals to some families seeking a smaller setting, centre-based care remains the dominant form of childcare in Australia, and is attended by more than 845,000 children.
For Lexi Papageorgiou, being able to rely on her mum to babysit all three of her children meant childcare was never a consideration.
By juggling her shifts at Woolworths and her husband’s as a police officer around caring responsibilities, her nine-year-old, six-year-old and three-year-old were at home with family until they were ready for kinder.
“I have zero regrets,” Papageorgiou said. “There’s not one part of me that thinks I should have sent them to care.”
Affinity was contacted for comment but did not respond in time for publication.
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