Even with One Nation support dropping, state Labor still has reason to worry ahead of November

Voters are showing signs of drifting back towards the major parties as the state election nears, with both Labor and the Coalition recording modest improvements in their primary vote and still at level pegging four months out from polling day.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor, commissioned by The Age, shows the state of play remains difficult for Labor and the Coalition, with both parties recording a subdued primary vote of 27 per cent.

But despite these gains, Premier Jacinta Allan’s personal popularity remains a major issue for the government after her likeability dropped to minus 36.

However, both sides recorded a 1 point lift in their vote at the expense of One Nation, which drifted down 2 points to 22 per cent compared with the May-June figures.

The latest state figures also reinforce federal results that show the shine has come off Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, just as it became the most popular party in Australia.

“To a certain extent, the fate of One Nation at a state level is depending on what’s happening with the party federally,” Resolve founder Jim Reed said.

A controversial National Press Club appearance by Hanson in June started the decline, while Labor and the Coalition have sharpened their attacks on the minor party by zeroing in on their economic credentials.

More than three-quarters of those surveyed earlier this month said they were now committed regarding their vote – a figure that has been trending upwards steadily all year. Just 23 per cent of Victorians remained uncommitted ahead of November 28.

The 1000-respondent poll is the first of what will now be monthly reports from the Resolve Political Monitor on Victorian voting intentions in the lead-up to the state election. The margin for error in the July poll is plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

Resolve does not calculate a two-party preferred outcome because this can be simplistic when considering complex preference flows in each seat. This is particularly relevant at a time when a third party such as One Nation is within range of the two majors.

Another set of questions put to respondents about their opinions of the major parties also provided some further positivity for Labor and the Coalition.

About 30 per cent believed Allan and the Labor government deserved another term – up from 25 per cent in June, while 47 per cent believe Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and the Liberals are capable of governing – up from 46 per cent. (The May-June data for this question relied on a smaller sample size of 550 results.)

Allan’s personal popularity, however continues to crater, with her likeability falling back to where it was at the start of the year, marking her equal lowest result on record.

Despite this, as a chunk of voters moved away from being undecided to picking one of the two leaders, both Allan and Wilson gained 4 points each as preferred premier.

Wilson maintains a lead in this space: 43 per cent of voters say they want her to lead the state compared with 24 per cent for Allan.

Reed said one of the reasons for Wilson remaining well ahead as preferred leader was due to a lack of competition at a state level from Hanson’s camp.

“I put this down to the contest narrowing as people start to engage and decide, and also the realisation that there is [currently] no One Nation candidate for premier,” he said.

Across the state, the top issue for voters remains economic and financial management, with 37 per cent of those polled marking this as their biggest influence on who they will throw their support behind.

After the economy, housing is the most important issue for 16 per cent of voters, followed by health and hospitals (14 per cent).

Economic management includes issues such as cost of living, a significant bugbear for many as inflation continues to bite and interest rates remain elevated.

Only one in five voters (19 per cent) are optimistic that the outlook for the state will get better, compared with almost half (45 per cent) who believe it will get worse.

On a personal level, Victorians are more positive, with 27 per cent believing their situation can improve compared to 24 per cent in May-June. About 38 per cent are pessimistic about their personal circumstances, while 34 per cent expect no change.

Reed said that despite positive signs, there appeared to be a solid group of just over 20 per cent of the Victorian population who would vote Labor no matter what.

“Many of the remainder are looking for the best way to vote Labor out, or how to influence change within in the case of the Greens,” he said. “Expectations of who can win will become very important [closer to election day].”

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